Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[BullCityWx]

It’s mostly unchanged from its previous runs tho so at least it didn’t trend negatively per se

Yeah I consider it a neutral thing. it's better than being overamped

 

[JLL1973]

are there any western or mid south people left in here? Curios about our side of the mountain.

i live in the midsouth. looks like a good 1-2 inch snowfall for most of the midsouth with higer accumulations north of I40

 

[1300m]

ICON is a swing and a miss

Appears one of the critical time frames for the differences between ICON and 6z Euro Control is around 18z Monday. At this time, the Euro control begins to create separation in the northern stream while the ICON does not. Translates to a focus on the first wave of energy and doesn't hold back as much.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Peep the change over the NE

 

[iGRXY]

 

[JLL1973]

looks like our wave is a strung out mess early on the gfs. Lets see what it does

 

[Uncle Nasty]

Not many. The ones that are here don't post much. All you mostly see is more of an East Coast to Mid Atlantic take on things. AL/TN/MS are pretty much forgotten about.

I'm a lurker from the Chattanooga area.



Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Biggest changes thus far on the gfs are over the NE

 

[KyloG]

The ATL getting hit

 

[J.C.]

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[SnowwxAtl]

The ATL getting hit

View attachment 141400

Northern GA per usual!

 

[DopplerWx]

Damn

 

[DopplerWx]

Past 24hrs of trends, wow.

 

[iGRXY]

Continuing the positive trends. My first big thing I am looking for is getting the NE confluence trended correctly because we need the cold press or it doesn't matter what happens with the S/W. GFS took a big step in the right direction

 

[KyloG]

This has a real chance to be a big event for a lot in the east...there I said it...I just probably jinxed it too

 

[Stormlover]

12z gfs is great

 

[1300m]

I think this is what we want (in eastern sections), we just want more of it. The more the northern stream can separate and move out ahead, the more it will press the height field and allow cold aloft to move in ahead of the system.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Wulfer]

Huge hit in Choo Choo town. (That's Chatt. for younger posters!)

 

[iGRXY]

CMC is beautiful over NE. Need work out west.

 

[DopplerWx]

CMC vs 00z

 

[BullCityWx]

Huge hit in Choo Choo town. (That's Chatt. for younger posters!)

Thats a hard thing to do down there. Good luck!

 

[DopplerWx]

?

 

[WSW]

 

[Stevo24]

This just has that look that us in the upstate like to see.

 

[UNCSC]

?
View attachment 141409

at least the Canadian has been inconsistent hot garbage this winter

 

[1300m]

This has a real chance to be a big event for a lot in the east...there I said it...I just probably jinxed it too

View attachment 141405

I'll raise you one - IF, IF IF, these trends of the past couple runs continue, it WILL be a big event for the eastern U.S.

 

[jrips27]

Full GFS 3 hour precip-type for everyone

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Is an

Is

any of this good for Georgia?

Yes. The further south and east one lives in the SE, the more a taller ridge out west helps. IE, the further S the trough digs plus that generally helps with a more neutral tilt which is the difference between a frontal passage and precip of consequence.

 

[BullCityWx]

Freezing rain usually isn’t a transitional ptype here so I call BS on the GFS. Probably sleet in reality but that doesn’t really matter attm.

 

[deltadog03]

Appears one of the critical time frames for the differences between ICON and 6z Euro Control is around 18z Monday. At this time, the Euro control begins to create separation in the northern stream while the ICON does not. Translates to a focus on the first wave of energy and doesn't hold back as much.

View attachment 141396

View attachment 141397

selfishly ( I will be in Tahoe then and would like some fresh snow falling...lol) and un-selfishly...I think that Vortmax coming down thru BC, I need that to dive Southward and hang together. I still feel like that is the "caboose" system that will produce hopefully a storm for me in Tahoe and then dive SE and forced to hang with yall and deliver a nice Winter hit to end the pattern.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Where would Atlanta/Athens want to see a negative tilt?

Tallahassee.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Stormlover]

Spire . And the ratio will be well more than the 10:1 is shows

 

[iGRXY]

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Ross]

Spire

what on earth is spire weather. is this the cricket wireless of numeral weather prediction models?

Freezing rain usually isn’t a transitional ptype here so I call BS on the GFS. Probably sleet in reality but that doesn’t really matter attm.

word of caution here, i've noticed ice can be more prevalent than you think in situations where the LP is elongated/banana shaped (which I think we will see here)

 

[Stormlover]

what on earth is spire weather



word of caution here, i've noticed ice can be more prevalent than you think in situations where the LP is elongated/banana shaped (which I think we will see here)

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