My favorite new model what ever it is!
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Stormlover
Member
severestorm
Member
this feels more and more like overrunning
loving the SE trends too!!Spire . And the ratio will be well more than the 10:1 is shows
iGRXY
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like all GEFS members are talking winter weather in some form.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Ridge on the west coast trending stronger too, good trend for sure.
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Had a busy morning at work so I’m just now getting a chance to look at closer at this morning’s models. The biggest and probably most important trend on the GFS I’m seeing is the Greenland block is building in better over Baffin Bay. This is helping to push that vortex further se and not right on Hudson Bay… as Fro mentioned yesterday doing that is giving us a better cold push out ahead of the wave. Also as much as we’ve been used to the NW trend for so many years, since late fall this has been the year of the southeast trend… every system seems be trending further SE the last few days… let’s hope that continues.
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The snow mean over Atlanta is still really pathetic, though, so hopefully things continue to trend better. Most members show snow even in to GA, if they have precipitation at all.
Clear trend in the GEFS.
Stormlover
Member
Again, that 10:1 is way low
A good number of members showing something now too not just one or two skewing the mean. Get that 2" mean a little closer and I'll start to get excited (plus the Euro jump on board, that would help)
Those amounts in general would be way low given the setup even at 10:1.
how are 850s trending on the ensembles run to run?
And even after the "storm" has passed the block has trended stronger...so lends to a more suppressed solution. Good news for MS-AL-GA.
I would caution you on buying into really high ratios here in the south. Just my experience that anything more than 12-13:1 is very uncommon outside the higher elevations. Even the January 1988 storm had mostly 11-12:1 ratios in areas that were predominantly snow and with temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s.
Nice find Kylo. Can see the Greenland Block really pressing the heights south there
I'd like to see this W Canada ridge rollover here and give us more positive trough tilt there over the midwest
Can see it here on the Euro C run
Stormlover
Member
Not in these setups with massive arctic air in place. GFS has 22:1 and 23:1 here in north ala during the main part
Mahomeless
Member
I remember quite a few events where we've had well over 15:1 ratios here in Alabama. Arctic air has a much easier time influencing us than it does east of the Apps.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Definitely some good possibilities here, Member 16 bomb
Dude there are some bangers in there @Rain Cold
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Damn
NWMSGuy
Member
How were you able to gather this detail? Would be interested to know the ratios during the main part for Northwest MS.
Stormlover
Member
6z for tupelo, up to 17:1 and 28:1 ratios https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=ktup
Brent
Member
?
Short term trends are slightly good for our areas, but longer term trends have not been great. Its tough to understand what's good for our areas of the SE with the overwhelming number of posts being about whats good for the carolinas. Leads to false excitement sometimes because the posters aren't clear about what area they are referring to.
Stormlover
Member
Trends have been good today for us
That was a crazy GFS run. There's too much going on right now. All in the Grand Webb Plan
three day GEFS mean trend mostly holding serve for AL, MS, TN, less high end potential probably.
Even without snow this could be a memorable stretch.
NWMSGuy
Member
Thanks!
Oconeexman
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Yea I get the feeling there will be some major changes after tomorrow's system pushes through. Putting us in a weekend frenzy of model watching and hopefully all-aboards not cliff diving.
olhausen
Member
This is why I didn’t get down when the lower totals were popping up yesterday. Temps here will be in the low 20s and lower during the entire event. When adding kuchera I haven’t seen a model run with less than 3 inches. The cold air is going to squeeze every last drop of moisture out the atmosphere. Super high ratios!Spire . And the ratio will be well more than the 10:1 is shows
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Overall, some good trends with the stronger block and the better cold confuence, BUT we need to see that tend continue. This could potentially turn into a good system for many but it could also become a nothing burger at this range. Still not much for the SC peeps yet. We might still end up sitting on the bleachers but maybe we can at least get an invite to the dance?
iGRXY
Member
rburrel2
Member
Just going off those changes the cold push should be better out in front.
olhausen
Member
That’s a beautiful hit even at 10:1 ratios
Kuchera
Kuchera
tractor girl
Member
Low as in longitude or amounts?
iGRXY
Member
