Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[NWMSGuy]

While western areas of the south remain favored for wintery weather, we are all still in the game at this point. If one looks at the 500mb vorticity details, it's clear that in the 4-8 day range, the big closed low associated with the impending Midwest blizzard is the main driver once it reaches eastern Canada. The vortices orbiting that newly formed TPV are driving the bulk of the run-to-run changes we're seeing and nothing can be remotely trusted until the storm passes.

When do you believe we may start getting a solid idea of how this will evolve? Tomorrow/Friday? Later?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

When do you believe we may start getting a solid idea of how this will evolve? Tomorrow/Friday? Later?

By Saturday, the models should be pretty zeroed in for your area. Our big storm will be exiting the lakes by then.

 

[Itryatgolf]

Anyone have the gefs mean snow they can post?

 

[WSW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[iGRXY]

Taller Western Ridge and more digging of the trough

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 141243

I really feel like we’re gonna have to get through this big storm on Friday/Saturday before the models really key in on what type of system, IF any, for the 15th/16th. The players are certainly on the field now. We just need them to play like the 49ers and not the Panthers.

 

[deltadog03]

View attachment 141243

I feel like euro is firing a warning shot and a piece is going to break off the northern branch tail and combine with something out over the pac NW. that would be a great thing for a lot of good possible scenarios.

 

[iGRXY]

Lower heights pressing in the NE and a taller western ridge causing more digging over the Midwest. Keep this going and we are going to trend ourselves right into a winter storm

 

[Chazwin]

I feel like euro is firing a warning shot and a piece is going to break off the northern branch tail and combine with something out over the pac NW. that would be a great thing for a lot of good possible scenarios.

Even though the EURO is not what it use to be, I certainly prefer to see it and the EPS firing the warning shots like we’ve seen the last few runs. One thing that I’ve noticed just from an observation standpoint is that the EURO/EPS does really well at sniffing out storms first when we have strong blocking up north like we do right now…in January/February 2010, December 2010, February 2014, January 2016, and January 2022 the EURO/EPS was always the first models to latch on to something

 

[Chazwin]

The 18z ICON looks to be a good bit better than the 12z run. Ridge pushing up into British Columbia and the trough dropping Montana and pushing southeast…less SER so cold not dumping out west.

 

[iGRXY]

A lot more western ridging on the EPS

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 141247
A lot more western ridging on the EPS

Here’s the control run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS is icy. That control run was headed for glory

 

[Arcc]

Here’s the control run

I can’t unsee that.

 

[rburrel2]

Oh man the stream separation on that control run... also that vort has pushed all the way into texas near the gulf coast.... we might be cooking with something tonight if these trends continue.

 

[rburrel2]

EPS is icy. That control run was headed for glory View attachment 141248View attachment 141249

Dang that's a lot of ice for a mean, especially considering the control hasn't even reached our area yet. Would have to assume those ice means would shoot up even more in the next 24hrs out from that.

 

[rburrel2]

If somehow we do wind up getting a winter storm east of the mountains... then my god the GEFS is absolutely awful. You'd think at least one or two members would show a feather dusting of snow inside of day 6 if it was actually on the table. (some of the 18z members did, but 12z was a complete shut out)

 

[iGRXY]

Here’s the control run

Ii just started barking and howling at the moon. This would've been a big dog.

 

[SD]

Anybody got them mslp anomaly maps