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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Stormlover said:
this is what it says, it's from Chris Lisaukis of Eyes to the sky Weather, and he is very good at this stuff:
Snow amounts on the increase? Some of the Global models are developing a surface low over the gulf of Mexico which would likely increase our snow totals in the Tennessee Valley for Monday/Tuesday. I believe this trend will likely continue as the high altitude jet stream pattern strongly favors the development of such a low pressure feature along the temperature gradient (baroclinicity) which will exist. I wouldn't be at all surprised if model forecasted snow amounts increase over the next few days as models continue to resolve. As of now, my gut is telling me we'll see 4-6" along and north of the Tennessee River; however, as you know, this prediction will likely change some over the coming days.
Please begin to prepare for relatively extreme conditions across the area next week as snow and the potential for prolonged extreme cold exist. I don't like hype, and I avoid it at all cost, but this event should be on your radar.
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Was that before 12z euro?
 
rburrel2 said:
The euro is really on an island with the sheared out suppressive look. Ukmet/CMC/GFS all have a storm cranking up the coast at 120 hrs.

Essentially the euro is too much of a good thing with respect to the cold press out in front. Probably a good thing at this point though. I'm much more concerned with not enough cold air and a quicker tracking system that pulls northeast too fast.
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Arcc said:
This right here. Get the cold in and then hope the precip over performs.
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Personally I kind of loved the Euro run. A blend of the main 4 op runs is pretty good right now.

Here’s one from the UKMet run. Snow in NW Bama into C TN

9E699941-0A33-4C2A-84E4-1D798AA9AEBF.png
 
If we can lock in the Low in the gulf and have it pass right along the GA, FL line. North Alabama will score big time. There's been several hints that this was possible. We'll have to watch for more Consistency over the coming days. Then once we have a better feel that a Low may form then we'll switch focus to what area it forms. Which will then determine how far north or south its effects are felt. In other words, there is a lot to work out yet! Anyone in the bullseye currently is pretty much assured not to be there in the coming days! Be patient my friends! Best signal we've had in several years, but in the southeast we wait until 24-48 before we can be remotely certain on a snow forecast. And even that is pushing it! Happy Model watching to all!
 
Potential is still there. That's the key. We have seen the legit storms show up between 7 and 10 days, dance back and forth on the models, and then start to take small changes each day inside 7 days. Even seen them go poof only to come back within 3 days. It's good just to have something to track and see the action start to pick up on the models going into the second half of January.
 
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big 16DF3038-C37D-4142-8B04-A0BE158D93F8.pngD119DF26-D9C9-425C-B4F8-D4652408E6B0.png
 
1705276800-K6GmfulHC2s.png
EPS is following the OP
 
iGRXY said:
Like I said, I'll take suppression city over fighting to get cold air in place first. If we end up with a nothing burger because we have no tilt to drive precip, then so be it but in the south you take your chances on too much cold air with moisture in question vs the opposite 10/10x.
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in 2018 i would completely agree; i'm shaken after seeing a lot of threats roam offshore last few years.

to be clear though this is probably just personal preference and not an indication of meteorological acumen, i could just as easily see both scenarios happen
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big View attachment 141454View attachment 141455
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And it continues to trend in the right direction. I trust a 4 run trend way more than a 1 run major shift. Give me the small trends over 3 days EVERY SINGLE TIME.
 
ILMRoss said:
in 2018 i would completely agree; i'm shaken after seeing a lot of threats roam offshore last few years.

to be clear though this is probably just personal preference and not an indication of meteorological acumen, i could just as easily see both scenarios happen
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It's a legit concern. I'm more of a let's get the cold in here first and sweat the details of the wave next. But that's just me. Like you said, it's a personal preference. I've been burned more times by not having cold air than by not having a robust enough wave.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big View attachment 141454View attachment 141455
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Thank you for the better maps...lol. great thoughts as well. I will actually say I think that energy entering the PAC NW needs to slow a little and move due south and then round the base of the overall trof. I think thats the piece of energy yall need in your favor for AL/GA/SC/NC snowstorm. I think models are trying to hint at that.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big View attachment 141454View attachment 141455
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Yep. That one is a key player. It's worth noting that regarding that s/w, the GFS is on an island.
gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

ec-fast_z500a_namer_6.png

gem_z500a_namer_21.png

icon_z500_vort_namer_41.png

GFS is the outlier of the day.
 
olhausen said:
Euro basically shows a dusting here vs the gfs showing like 6-7 inches. Wish it was the other way around. Regardless temps here drop below freezing on Saturday and never get back above through the whole forecast period.
View attachment 141460
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7 consecutive days below freezing. That’s a banger
 
Parker said:
12z eps is improved for us further south. I’d expect to see some decent members. 00z on the top vs 12z on the bottom. Charts will come out around 2 PM.
View attachment 141458


View attachment 141459
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One thing I do see it trends continue, is a light snow zone in North AL and a light-moderate snow zone in SE AL into GA and on east. Watch for the shaft zone……

Definite Jan 2018 vibe here.
 
Hpdb301 said:
If we can lock in the Low in the gulf and have it pass right along the GA, FL line. North Alabama will score big time. There's been several hints that this was possible. We'll have to watch for more Consistency over the coming days. Then once we have a better feel that a Low may form then we'll switch focus to what area it forms. Which will then determine how far north or south its effects are felt. In other words, there is a lot to work out yet! Anyone in the bullseye currently is pretty much assured not to be there in the coming days! Be patient my friends! Best signal we've had in several years, but in the southeast we wait until 24-48 before we can be remotely certain on a snow forecast. And even that is pushing it! Happy Model watching to all!
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Yep, the way I have a chance is if lows track just under the panhandle. If the low gets into Ga it's usually to close to the furnace for anything frozen...lots of 33 rain. Too suppressed and it's 25 and virga. Generally, I'd like to see the rain, and hope the cold over performs, since it always gets cold in winter, but I've seen tons of dry ones, and wasted cold air. Blocking helps loads with timing, and always changes the calculus.
 
SnowNiner said:
Not sure if that's better? It's gotten colder but drier. Running that difficult balance of cold, and shredding the wave.
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Yeah depends on what your preference of better is lol. I'm in the camp with @Rain Cold in that I would rather the cold air be in place and maybe get better modeling on the precip.
 
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