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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

The 12Z EURO is suppressing this thing way south and out to sea while all the other models disagree with it for the most part
 
griteater said:
Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution
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My mental pic Im drawing is like the 12z GFS. I hear you though. Wanted the SW back out over the pacific

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png
 
griteater said:
Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution

VmhZHAD.gif


WqYRFcB.png
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I'm confused with how the UK is giving us an inland solution. I thought a cutter, amped or not, was pretty much off the table because of the massive block that will be in place and the LP that will be in front of the system in the NE. I guess maybe the UKMET is placing the LP too far North to prevent the storm from cutting.
 
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Rain Cold said:
I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.

So many winters, we just hope and pray for a little ridging up there somewhere. A block like this is not going to be quick to break down and move out. It's good to remember that, because as long as it's there and of that magnitude, things in the modeling are going to have more of a tendency to press south than they usually do, as we move in closer...up to a point, at least.

View attachment 141481
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I remember Matthew East talking a lot about this exact look back in the winter of 2009-10. Anytime the largest heights are set up over Baffin Bay, he said was the best for Carolina winter storms
 
Man that is a textbook look for DC with the low right near* Hatteras like that. Bet the MA forum is having an exciting happy hour.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Cold air transport continues to be an issue on the GFS and remains my #1 concern.
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Either we need a better feed of cold from the north (as you said) or we need this system to push just a little more south (using the initial cold air).

The 18z RDPS looked better at hour 84, suppressing the system more and speeding up the arrival of precip.

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KyloG said:
Really nice trend for a “bigger” event on the GEFS, past 5 runs.

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was going to comment something like this. gfs ens run is pretty interesting- definitely some changes

bigger SER, sharper trough, and in response.. check out how qpf lurches inland
gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_fh114_trend.gif
i will say this. if this trend continues after me moaning about it all day. this i will take the L and yall will have full right to be mad at me haha
 
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