Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[Ollie Williams]

Fro, weenie question and mods move to other thread if need be, but why the hole over ATL?

Because the Apps are blocking the original northern stream energy, the coastal low doesn't phase/mature until it gets further in latitude around NC.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Because the Apps are blocking the original northern stream energy, the coastal low doesn't phase/mature until it gets further in latitude around NC.

So we need it to phrase early...gotcha...late bloomers

 

[Ollie Williams]

So we need it to phrase early...gotcha...late bloomers

Yeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.

The 18z Euro Control did that, the 00z Euro unfortunately said it was a blip.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Yeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.

The 18z Euro Control did that, the 00z Euro unfortunately said it was a blip.

We needed the Euro to pull a CMC by digging out west

 

[Ollie Williams]

We needed the Euro to pull a CMC by digging out west

The CMC runs into the same problem the Euro does. It doesn't matter how much the wave digs if the low in the NW stops the wave from maturing.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

The CMC runs into the same problem the Euro does. It doesn't matter how much the wave digs if the low in the NW stops the wave from maturing.

Gotcha...thank you

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah. We’re improving the northern stream for cold out ahead, but stuff out west is getting discombobulated by the shortwave entering B.C.

 

[TheBatman]

Euro

 

[NWMSGuy]

Snow Totals on the 06Z GFS have increased since the 0Z run.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Ensemble Mean totals have also increased around the Mid-South.

 

[Brent]

?

 

[Chandler]

? nice control run from 6z eps

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Is it just me or does it seem like the off hour Euro always shows a change that usually never carries to the next on cycle run. At least it seems that way

 

[BullCityWx]

Control was about to turn the corner and be a big event, especially for the carolinas and va.

 

[JLL1973]

Snow Totals on the 06Z GFS have increased since the 0Z run. View attachment 141355

Looks like all models have increased snow amounts overnight

 

[Chrisgo]

Looks like all models have increased snow amounts overnight

Trending more south and east?

 

[KyloG]

The control digs the energy much further south and concentrated. The high pressure is also allowed to nose in to our north.

 

[rburrel2]

That control run is an absolute perfect, best case scenario for those of us east of the Apps.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but is that evolution similar to January of 2018

 

[KyloG]

Nice trends on the GFS past few runs...