Quite a few late bloomers from a coastal on 6z GEFS. Totals aren't impressive but an interesting trend. That said. I trust the GEFS for surface details as much as I would the DGEX so there's that.
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
How reliable are the control runs of the Euro typically?
its the base member that the ensembles are derived from which itself is a low resolution of the op.
so its a crapshoot.
UNCSC
Member
Quite a few late bloomers from a coastal on 6z GEFS. Totals aren't impressive but an interesting trend. That said. I trust the GEFS for surface details as much as I would the DGEX so there's that.
This is so close to a good miller A winter storm that it is making my teeth hurt
Very poor, verbatim. Almost none of the snowstorms it ever shows pan out. That said, it make have some skill picking up on trends. It's essentially the baseline from which the conditions for the other 50 EPS runs are changed.
This is a legitimate trend at day 5 and people get mad bc day 11 isn't showing Snow
I have a feeling this can over preform for some on the board. Just as others have stated we tend to get storm like these to show up in the short range in-between big storms.
rburrel2
Member
The trend is clear on hanging the trailing vort back on the GFS... everything will fall in to place if we can get it to separate from the northern vortex and dive down to the gulf coast, (like the 06z Euro control shows).
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Is anyone besides me reviewing what WPC is saying in their overnight update?
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I would like to, what do you hear?
We got work to do but we working! Let's roll!
Even the EPS itself was a major improvement east of the apps, with far more members showing something
Think I counted 30/50
rburrel2
Member
FWIW, the 06z Rgem took a jump in our favor both with the pressing of heights out ahead of our storm and also has our vort entering from Canada a good bit further west with more energy underneath it.
extrapolated out it was going to be a much better run than the 00z CMC which was already showing some snow for eastern NC.
extrapolated out it was going to be a much better run than the 00z CMC which was already showing some snow for eastern NC.
packfan98
Moderator
These 384 hour maps should be posted in the Jammin' January thread, not this one.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
If this is the case then why would they use it for the base for the EPS runs? Doesn't that mean the EPS runs are based on a crappy low resolution solution? Why would we ever put any stock in the EPS?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The trend is definitely our friend
It’s a good look on the control 