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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Also interesting to note that several ensemble members, and the 00z CMC/ICON are showing some lee-side enhancement/meso-low formation with the surface to 900mb wind field wrapping around the base of the mountains.

Seems like even if the vortmax passes further north, the angle of approach could produce via that method for central/eastern NC. It's happened before. (and has been an over-performer in past events).
 
jrips27 said:
It’s a good look on the control View attachment 141381
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Seems like we've seen this kind of thing several times over the past few years where we need the trough to drop down in positive tilt until the last moment, then sharpen. If it sharpens too early, the storm cuts / is too warm. Requires exquisite timing, but not out of the question
 
griteater said:
Seems like we've seen this kind of thing several times over the past few years where we need the trough to drop down in positive tilt until the last moment, then sharpen. If it sharpens too early, the storm cuts / is too warm. Requires exquisite timing, but not out of the question
Click to expand...
Completely agree this is a tight rope, although the rope gets a little bigger the longer it can stay positive tilt and the good news is the cold is copious if we can delay the timing of the turn before it sharpens. Of course if it delays too long, it's nothing but a dry fropa.
 
1300m said:
Completely agree this is a tight rope, although the rope gets a little bigger the longer it can stay positive tilt and the good news is the cold is copious if we can delay the timing of the turn before it sharpens. Of course if it delays too long, it's nothing but a dry fropa.
Click to expand...
It was perfect for many on the Control like yall have commented
 
rburrel2 said:
Also interesting to note that several ensemble members, and the 00z CMC/ICON are showing some lee-side enhancement/meso-low formation with the surface to 900mb wind field wrapping around the base of the mountains.

Seems like even if the vortmax passes further north, the angle of approach could produce via that method for central/eastern NC. It's happened before. (and has been an over-performer in past events).
Click to expand...
Indeed. That’s basically what happened in the mid January 2018 storm and it quickly turned what looked like a 2-4” event into a 6-10” storm in a lot of central and eastern NC.
 
yeah man i haven't come to the computer to post on here with this giddy of a disposition since like jan 22. lots to still sort out but i mean it's snow in the south. one thing i've learned over the years- it's NEVER going to be easy, unless it's 2/13/2010.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh138_trend.gif
not much mystery to me that this vortex getting slowed down and gaining separation from the pv has changed our range of potential outcomes for the better. still a lot of work to do; and not going to lie guys positive trends are not guaranteed for 12z. i could easily see myself rolling into a pity party in the whamby thread around noon today. but here's hoping 12z can continue to carry some momentum for us tortured souls in the eastern time zone
 
griteater said:
Seems like we've seen this kind of thing several times over the past few years where we need the trough to drop down in positive tilt until the last moment, then sharpen. If it sharpens too early, the storm cuts / is too warm. Requires exquisite timing, but not out of the question
Click to expand...
Yep. Need it to neg tilt right about Macon.
 
FWIW, the 12z NAM pumps the PAC NW ridge far more than the 6Z run:
nam_z500a_namer_27.png

nam_z500a_namer_29.png
 
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