whether you see this as glass half full or glass half empty depends on your latitudeNot sure if that's better? It's gotten colder but drier. Running that difficult balance of cold, and shredding the wave.
Down our way we need every bit of an improved cold feed. It’s the best EPS run for us yet for that reason.Not sure if that's better? It's gotten colder but drier. Running that difficult balance of cold, and shredding the wave.
January 28th-29th 2014. The one thing that storm had going for it was we had really really cold ground temps because of the previous ten days.To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
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distinctly remember that storm for having some of the most ludicrous clown maps of my life. four days out and the CMC was spitting out 4 inches of frozen qpf for places like savannah. weather channel shipped cantore out to charleston for ice (that was a bust). in raleigh we were thinking 3-6 inches of pixie dust (we got 2.6 or something like that).To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
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Yeah it happens usually every 4-5 years. I’d have to go back and look but 11-12 days below happened back in February 2015. January 2018 had a long stretch also.Have you ever had 7 straight days at or below 32 ?
Yes. Mainly in that a minor adjustment in wave strength from energy that isn't onshore yet can take this from 0 to 100.Does anyone else feel this is somewhat similar to the Boxing Day storm that got squashed until the last 24 hours? I'm not sure if the pattern is similar or not. We are in the ballgame at least.
Yeah, that's a good one, I was trying to think of nino's but this is close.To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
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Yep. I can’t recall many more setups like this that had the low/TPV around Hudson Bay for NC snow, we’re getting lucky with the trough pivoting around acting in a way as our cold feed. It’s definitely different from the traditional Atlantic Canada vortex in most of our setupsYeah, that's a good, I was trying to think of nino's but this is close.
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I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.Best EPS run yet. Really wierd to see favorable cold trends as we approach normally it’s the opposite View attachment 141462View attachment 141463
I plotted the Euro runs for that storm a while back. Insane runsdistinctly remember that storm for having some of the most ludicrous clown maps of my life. four days out and the CMC was spitting out 4 inches of frozen qpf for places like savannah. weather channel shipped cantore out to charleston for ice (that was a bust). in raleigh we were thinking 3-6 inches of pixie dust (we got 2.6 or something like that).
agreed with similarities but i need to see a 24 inch bullseye over fayetteville before I really get excited (and no joke that was was half the ops runs were spitting out for that storm)
The primary weather concerns during this period will be the
potential for snow in northern Georgia Monday into Tuesday and
and influx of Arctic air by the middle of the week. Both events
are linked, in that the timing of the Arctic airs arrivals will
dictate the southward extent of any potential snowfall. For now
the majority of the ensemble (EPS & GEFS) members hold the cold
air back long enough to keep the Atlanta Metro and points south
and eastward as all rain. For portions of northern Georgia, the
snow potential is greater with 90% of the GEFS and EPS members
suggesting at least a trace of snow in Blairsville. If snow
occurs, the potential push of Arctic air Tuesday and Wednesday
could create issues for snow removal/melting. While forecaster
confidence in the snow is towards the lower end of the scale,
confidence in the bout of colder weather is high (see the CPC 6-10
Day Temperature Outlook). Temperatures could dip into the teens
for much of the region Wednesday morning. Meanwhile single digit
wind chill values could materialize Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
yep, she's a beaut Clark!I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.
So many winters, we just hope and pray for a little ridging up there somewhere. A block like this is not going to be quick to break down and move out. It's good to remember that, because as long as it's there and of that magnitude, things in the modeling are going to have more of a tendency to press south than they usually do, as we move in closer...up to a point, at least.
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Can you do this zeroing in on that shortwave placement up in the NW around hour 100. Curious to see its trendsWe've kind of beat this to death but the upper low in southern Canada continues to tick south...some of us need that...some of us don't.
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I remember getting 2 inches and the Coweta Co. For 3 inchesOne thing I do see it trends continue, is a light snow zone in North AL and a light-moderate snow zone in SE AL into GA and on east. Watch for the shaft zone……
Definite Jan 2018 vibe here.
Thanks for taking the time to post these maps.Closeups. Lots of light members View attachment 141466View attachment 141467View attachment 141468View attachment 141469
Can someone post ice and sleet maps for the Euro for the central Gulf coast?
Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solutionWe should start getting to view that sw up in the NW on the 0z short range models tonight. Just more voices in the choir. Fro is right in that its that sw placement, thats gonna really determine what kind of end story this has . We need that pac ridging neutrally tilted, shaped, and sharp. Not leaning forward in a sw to ne configuration. I cant think of another mechanism that will play a bigger role in determining how amped our energy gets as she comes down an around.
I would take my swath of sleet and run for it...and wait til Thursday!
UKMET has certainly been going the right way though. From having a big time southeast ridge and severe weather in the Carolinas/other parts of the SE to thatHa, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution
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This tracks too with the model's ever decreasing available moisture, particularly in N AL.will continue to beat this drum, bc this is the risk the euro shows:
bringing down heights ahead of the storm and weakening the SER sounds great until you need something to sharpen the trough with. no coincidence that we lost basically all of our lift. and i feel like this is a board-wide risk.
in years past this is a great look, but last few years it feels like we've lost storms to strong cold press/positive tilts more frequently than i'm comfortable with to call this a great look.
interested in the ensembles but wouldn't be surprised to see the qpf trail trickle south with returns more muted