NCSNOW
Member
Triad doesnt exist to RAH NWS, until events unfold and spotters call in.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
18Z FRAM from RGEM is like .80 or something for GSO. Obviously that output is too aggressive but an ice storm is looking more likely for sure.
NCSNOW
Member
Dang, RDPS colder still and more W/E oriented, I still don't expect much at all here but that kind of got my attention..... haven't look at soundings though.
Ooof much colder.....
East-west CAD events seem a little odd to me. But I guess the RGEM knows best. Either way, still trending east and south with frozen, to an extent, anyway.
MichaelJ
Member
T
This is just U-G-L-Y
This is just U-G-L-Y
I bet it's going to be a good read, my guess they are going with colder side of things and stronger wedge..... just guessing because they have chance snow Sat night and then chance snow Sun morning changing to rain in my neck of the woods. Really wasn't expecting that
Yeah I agree but there is the rare occasion but I'd lean more towards the usual NE/SW orientation cutting Wake right down the middle
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Hence why I only mentioned the FRAM!
Ahem.... lol
As is typical of cold air damming events,
our official forecast is weighted most heavily toward colder and
more stable NAM and GEM solutions, which depict that slower than
previously forecast retreat of the wet bulb freezing line; and our
temperature forecast has been adjusted downward accordingly.
Things you don’t like to see 
also note howthe NAM trending towards a wetter WAA band already kickstarts the CAD 
also note howthe NAM trending towards a wetter WAA band already kickstarts the CAD
MichaelJ
Member
If you go by past histroy, most if not all models tend to scour the wedge out too quickly. If that happens here, (meaning it DOESN'T change to plain rain)nobody in Yadkin, Wilkes, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph and Davidson counties will have power likely for several days. 
I was just about to say, I have this uneasy feeling that this could trend a lot uglier for CLT. It's hard to bed against the NAM, it's beginning to get into its timeframe where it does really well. Not sure if that would equal Ice Storm Warning Criteria, but at the very least an advisory. If things keep trending the Triad may have more IP than ZR. And CLT could have more of an ice issue. Trends aren't great if you like power.
Imo this has more potential for CLT then any system we’ve had in a while, just because the DPs are so low prior, of course we could trend back to a warmer solution but it’s not good seeing the NAM get colder as it’s entering its best range regardless of H5, lol
Yeah, not great. I mean I love wintry weather but ZR while it's beautiful and makes for some great pictures it can wreak havoc.
Clem282340
Member
This looks like a hwy 11 and north storm to me
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Even the GFS came in more wintry at the outset at least. Probably because of the faster onset of precip.
I’m a little surprised RAH didn’t issue a Watch for at least Forsyth, and maybe even Guilford or Davidson based on what RNK issued for counties just N of them. Then again, GSP didn’t issue Watches for Rowan or Davie on the other side either.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
brads take on the NAMs
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
But yet he will be the first one showing the nam of it had nothing. I hope he's right though
MichaelJ
Member
The more I look at this and get outside my own backyard bias, if this comes in early and locks in the CAD, then major parts of Metro Charlotte could be in for a world of hurt. You may start and STAY ZR with no sleet to save you while the Triad proper may get a break with some of the precip being IP and even a little snow. Regardless this could literally be a "lights out storm" for a lot of the Western and Central part of the state. I think Raleigh will be pretty safe at this time but keep abreast of the local forecasts
iGRXY
Member
Ice is definitely getting down to the 85 corridor already and these short range models are trending colder with each run. Those low DPs out ahead of the storm is what has me worried about this overperforming. But the CAMS, RGEM, and now both NAMS have ice down to the 85 corridor in greenville, spartanburg, and cherokee counties.
If WAA driven precip arrives earlier then forecasted, then dang, that always seems to happen as well
MichaelJ
Member
I will say that Brad could be right and his reasoning is sound but it is certainly not a guarantee
Yeah, I don't understand why Brad is always so sure of himself. He's a great met, but does this all the time. Is right a lot of the time? Yes. But for gods sakes, at least say it's something to watch.
Frosty approves of this forecast! But He knows he was burned last he was under a WSW they was calling for 4-8 inches ended up with a dusting. So he will believe it when he sees it................................................
SATURDAY NIGHT
A chance of snow and rain in the evening, then snow with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Not as cool with lows around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
SUNDAY
Freezing rain, sleet and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a chance of rain and sleet. A chance of freezing rain and snow showers after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
MONDAY
A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers and rain in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT
A chance of snow and rain in the evening, then snow with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Not as cool with lows around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
SUNDAY
Freezing rain, sleet and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a chance of rain and sleet. A chance of freezing rain and snow showers after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
MONDAY
A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers and rain in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
TUESDAY
Clem282340
Member
Do you think it will make it down to southern parks of Pickens county
iGRXY
Member
Yep, a parent high to the north, in-situ CAD is always way harder to erode than modeled, but sure I guess we can go with there's no chance for some moderate icing possible.
Thor
Member
Just a thought but is it possible the Nams dry bias is playing into the larger ice totals a bit? I know these models always show icing in lighter precip.
They're only showing .01''-.10'' across the nw piedmont, which seems low. But that explains why no Watches issued yet. (I think Warning criteria is .25'' for ice)
iGRXY
Member
The valley along pickens and oconee counties is always warmer than other parts of the upstate. Always heard it's due to the amount of Nuclear reactors on the lakes that warms the surrounding areas. Probably east of highway 178 in pickens towards GSP and Gaffney stand the best chance of seeing ZR at this time but if models continue to trend colder and colder like they have been and we get In-situ CAD from early precip into those low DPs then a lot of things are on the table here.
Nomanslandva
Member
I looked at soundings up her from the NAM 3K. While things are trending colder at the surface down there, the warm nose becomes critical earlier here. But while it goes to mix earlier, it may not be as warm as prior runs so a better chance of sleet.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
He is right all around. But there can still be warning criteria accrual in many spots (especially North and West of CLT.)
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
This makes sense. Just like the most recent event, it's better to increase later than vice versa.
Last edited by a moderator:
Imo if I was up there, I don’t really want to be a party pooper, but I’d bet with much less snow/more ZR/IP, 1-3 and maybe 4 in some spots around Roanoke, but the NAMs amount of WAA is a killer, that front end WAA band could do some work tho with some snow
MichaelJ
Member
Yep this is possible as well, that is why we need to stay abreast of evolving conditions tomorrow
Clem282340
Member
I live Right at hwy 178 in liberty sc you think this area might see something