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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

superjames1992 said:
I think this frontside band showing up on some of the modeling has fail/phantom written all over it. Hope I’m wrong, it’s our only chance of snow, LOL.
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If we fail to get something from A WAA band, part of a process that normally screws us, then ima be pissed lol
 
For those wondering, KCAE is not in this game from everything I can tell. I was iffy about it a couple days ago, but GSP and the far Northern Midlands around CLT/NC border is the most likely area (if at all) in the state right now.
 
Shawn said:
For those wondering, KCAE is not in this game from everything I can tell. I was iffy about it a couple days ago, but GSP and the far Northern Midlands around CLT/NC border is the most likely area (if at all) in the state right now.
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don't want ice anyway! im surprised our dew point has dropped so much since early this morning
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Relax man, I think it will drop some stuff, I think NAMs are portraying it well, since it’s driven off WAA I think it’ll be fine, given it overperforms 99% of the time
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I could see this front end band being pretty virga-heavy, and so it makes sense for the HRRR to dry out if it's too high with DPs in its long range. But if the NAM is showing it reaching the surface, and like you said it's WAA-driven, then I think another flizzard is totally possible, with maybe a dusting. The NAM is usually the best at capturing WAA/frontogenesis.
 
Spurs up said:
don't want ice anyway! im surprised our dew point has dropped so much since early this morning
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Yeah, I wanted to say something for people looking at the maps and might not know exactly what it's saying dewpoint wise around this area. I see how it could look a little iffy, especially since these dew points will likely verify a bit cooler in reality.
 
RVD said:
I could see this front end band being pretty virga-heavy, and so it makes sense for the HRRR to dry out if it's too high with DPs in its long range. But if the NAM is showing it reaching the surface, and like you said it's WAA-driven, then I think another flizzard is totally possible, with maybe a dusting. The NAM is usually the best at capturing WAA/frontogenesis.
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Yeah all I’m hoping for is some snow flying, but yeah it’ll be interesting to see what happens, the NAM soundings are also close which scare me a little
 
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Shawn said:
For those wondering, KCAE is not in this game from everything I can tell. I was iffy about it a couple days ago, but GSP and the far Northern Midlands around CLT/NC border is the most likely area (if at all) in the state right now.
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I figured from the beginning that this wasn't a SC midlands storm. Supposed to hit 60 or so in Columbia tomorrow.
 
Poimen said:
The UK holds surface temps in the northern Triad to at or below freezing through 18Z tomorrow.
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Full on sun here, is my only reservation to jumping all in on a decent little winter storm. One with a front end thump of snow,sleet to get a inch,then settle in to 12 plus hours frzng rn,drizzle. Dps are perfect. WB will be slam dunk if its clear skies at 6pm tonight. Only need about 1-2 hours and we would radiate into the upper 20s. But hearing how cloudy spartanburg is already. I fully expect clouds to roll in at 4-5pm. Wait and see what we are dealing with around 6 to 7pm tonight and that will tell the tale
 
I went ahead and cancel my NC trip, I'm eyeing the OK potential next weekend.
 
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Went ahead and updated my call maps and probabilities on this one. I may have to tweak them again this evening but I am wanting to wait to see how the day goes with temps, DPs, overall cloud cover, and if precip is moving in quicker to lock in the CAD. Will say right now the 12K NAM and RGEM are still a little warm on temps around my neck of the woods (41 compared to a fluctuating 39-40), 3K nam is way too warm as I should be around 44 right now. Both NAMs and even the RGEm is too warm with DPs. I' m sitting around 17-18 degrees and they all have it running between 20-25. Cloud cover came in this morning and it is completely cloudy here which is definitely something to watch. CAD is so hard for even short range models to resolve. The NAM is good at measuring the column temps but even it can be too warm at the surface with the DPs and temps and this is a good example of it. Not saying we get a major ice storm in the upstate but we are currently sitting hand and hand with the piedmont with temps and DPs where this pretty large chance for ICE is looking like.
 
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