MichaelJ
Member
The NCEP chart I showed thinks otherwise now, mostly rain with s little ice at onset
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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
30 degrees currently. This initial band should be all snow.
NCSNOW
Member
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- Dec 2, 2016
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Saw a flake report over sw NC Transylvania County Area.
Avalanche
Member
Buying a home in Banner Elk for retirement.
MichaelJ
Member
Yeah I think you guys will do well
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just hoping to stay snow/sleet as long as possible to avoid ice accrual.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The 18Z HRRR soundings (for my area) have a 33/28 spread at the outset of precipitation around 4am, which could be sleet. Temps then fall to 32 and remain there through about 10 am. This only tells us what we already knew: the difference between ice and plain rain is razor thin.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The RAP is about the only model left (we'll see about the NAMs in a minute) that still likes the front end band tonight:
iGRXY
Member
NAM starting up. Already initialized too warm and too high on the DPs and tries to raise them to the mid 20's by 4 pm.
S/SE wind now. Temp at 42 and dewpoint screaming up to 21.
12km
NAM run looks warmer so far
Yeah this is looking much less threatening 
LickWx
Member
I need the cold rain to wash away all the disgusting salt everywhere.
I've had a SSE wind all day! 40/23 atm.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Temp profile from the NAM for 4am is 33/28. That should be sufficient to get to 32 or 31 for several hours, I'd think.
Things just don’t get colder towards veri no more tbh, seems like with each passing CAD, it’s “ends up getting stronger/colder” slowly becomes something of the past
Here comes the finger
This isn’t looking as scary as It did yesterday, not even close 
Yeah, it sure hasn’t happened this year. If anything, we realize the models have CAD overdone!!
Looks like the fantasy finger is a mirage, as I feared yesterday! The winter of misery continues! May Fab Feb save us, but I gotta say it’s not looking good!!