6z RDPS a little better for Triad & Triangle folks.
Kuchera:
Kuchera:
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Here's the 6z HRRR kuchera map. Again it looks like a Triad to Triangle special:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I think given the better SLRs, sfc temps, and potential for a weak warm nose in the early portions of the changeover probably support the heaviest axis of snow sitting near the VA border w/ the Triad & Triangle on the southern fringe of the heaviest accumulations.
So the NAM (12k & 3K) is still on an island in terms of QPF. It has increased (as shown above) but still show a lot of trace to 1" amounts across central and eastern NC.
So what do you think of the NAM?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've been completely ignoring it, the last run or two has progressively ticked towards the GEFS/GFS, which most were crapping on yesterday. The more amped/slow wave the models are seeing and what the GEFS/GFS forecast yesterday in the short-range usually ends up verifying.
Cool. So are you thinking we stay within Advisory levels or could we get to Warnings?
Here's the 8z RAP. We're now just within the shorter one hour runs. Hour 21 (don't have a closer look):
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think warning criteria snow will probably fall north of RDU in places like Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson. Wake county is gonna be close, especially in northern sections where I think 1"-3" is not a bad call atm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My updated call map for this storm. Significantly increased totals vs yesterday, but the overall distribution of amounts hasn't changed much. I'm expecting warning criteria snow to fall near the VA border in places like Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson, where I'm forecasting a few-several inches of snow.
Here's the 6z GFS. It was a slight shift westward favoring the Triad to Triangle northward (basically matching Webbers thinking):
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
These clown maps are crazier than usual. We're talking at most a five hour window of snow (probably more like 3-4 for most places). Only so much can fall from the sky in that period and even less than whatever amount that is will accumulate. With that said, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping for at least 1-2" here.
Yeah, I'm trying to stay realistic (..we've seen this before); I'm thinking 2" would be a big win.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 4 runs of the NAM 12-hr QPF ending 12z Thu morning.
Completely folding to the wetter/more amped GFS/GEFS
Completely folding to the wetter/more amped GFS/GEFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I remember a certain someone on this forum several days ago claimed that this TPV lobe in southern Canada moving south wouldn't matter for this setup.
You can clearly see even looking at this map that's simply not true. Notice the sfc high over the upper midwest & SW Ontario is phased locked to the back side of the TPV lobe where negative vorticity advection, synoptic-scale descent, & hydrostatically forced sfc pressure rises are creating the high there & also note the deep-layer cold advection that's originating from this feature and feeding right into the cold sector of our coastal low. Without the TPV lobe, that sfc high probably isn't there to begin with or anywhere near as strong & the amping trends we've been seeing w/ our shortwave in the last day or so probably pull would end up forcing this storm back to the mid-Atlantic because there wouldn't be enough confluence over the Great Lakes to shear/suppress the wave. Not to mention, this TPV interacting w/ our storm in a few days will help trigger a giant 50-50 low that could setup a nice CAD event this weekend.
You can clearly see even looking at this map that's simply not true. Notice the sfc high over the upper midwest & SW Ontario is phased locked to the back side of the TPV lobe where negative vorticity advection, synoptic-scale descent, & hydrostatically forced sfc pressure rises are creating the high there & also note the deep-layer cold advection that's originating from this feature and feeding right into the cold sector of our coastal low. Without the TPV lobe, that sfc high probably isn't there to begin with or anywhere near as strong & the amping trends we've been seeing w/ our shortwave in the last day or so probably pull would end up forcing this storm back to the mid-Atlantic because there wouldn't be enough confluence over the Great Lakes to shear/suppress the wave. Not to mention, this TPV interacting w/ our storm in a few days will help trigger a giant 50-50 low that could setup a nice CAD event this weekend.
If it looks remotely like the HRRR above, 3-4 hours will be plenty of time to put down a good bit of snow!
So the latest 9z RAP shows the greatest totals from about RDU east/southeastward. Here's a Kurchera map (sorry -- no zoom in):
Edit: does anybody have a better site for the RAP? I'm using Pivotal.
Edit: does anybody have a better site for the RAP? I'm using Pivotal.
Last edited:
packfan98
Moderator
RAP is on College of Dupage
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Will be interesting to see how much, if any, of this snow cover from tonight's storm will still be around prior to the next system this coming weekend. The GFS ensemble suggests at least a little will be left in parts of northern NC and south-central VA. Certainly would help to cool/dry the low-level air mass we'd see w/ cold air damming.
