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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Pretty much getting consensus with all the models excpet the NAM. And it's really just a matter of less precip than the others.
 
These 10:1 maps... hell, even Kuchera maps, probably aren't realistic and not factoring in the wetness of snow that'll melt initially or during the event. This is probably more realistic with positive snow depth change... and even this map is looking decent. We'll have to see how other models handle this in the morning.

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Honestly wondering if the V16 isn't running for itself and the old GFS at this point. 4-5 inches here on them, around an inch for the other models. Either an epic all time miss, epic all time hit or epic all time fold coming very soon.
 
tramadoc said:
The NAM is better short term than the GFS. GFS is a medium to long range model. We are in the NAM’s wheelhouse. You’re gonna be bigly disappointed Thursday morning, son.
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The NAM is on an island though. You have the RGEM, RAP, HRRR and other high res models are much snowier than the NAM. It is odd to see it so dry vs all other guidance at this stage. I can’t recall ever seeing that happen.
 
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0z Ukmet jackpots G vegas. Global, stripes same areas as all other models,save the Nam
 
Looks like the 00z Euro held steady for a mid- to high-end WWA type event for much of the northern half of NC.
 
.. uhhh cave to gfs much? If this thing verifies ... this is genuinely a big coup for the Gfs and major coup from gfsV16 and shows us it’s quite the performer to look for in the future ... except of course when it involves this sundays system ?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
.. uhhh cave to gfs much? If this thing verifies ... this is genuinely a big coup for the Gfs and major coup from gfsV16 and shows us it’s quite the performer to look for in the future ... except of course when it involves this sundays system ?
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Weenie ??
But no joke the v16 might not be all bad
 
NWS issuing a WWA for RDU and pts north tomorrow night for up to 1" of snow w/ isolated 2" amounts. I definitely think we're going to see significantly more than that near the VA border. Winter storm warning criteria snow in places like Oxford, Henderson, Roxboro, etc. (3"/12 hr) is probably a safe bet at this point

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