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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Carolina Weather Authority isn't too excited about this.
 

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Guess my guys like the NAMs.
Tonight
Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then snow. Low around 28. Northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
 
Looks like it increased totals by at least an inch. Euro looking better, and the other models are holding steady. NAM is out to lunch. I think at least 3 inches for my neck of the woods.
The NAM still bothers me to some point. It has increased QPF but it's still not anything worth wild (snow - half to 1" maybe). In a couple of hours we'll have a look at the 12z; hopefully it shows another increase.
 
HRDPS showing a tick north focusing on I-40 corridor.

hrdps_asnow_neus_fh30_trend.gif
 
HRDPS showing a tick north focusing on I-40 corridor.

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I don't feel great about the south side of the snow at all. Looks like it's going to be a tight gradient between accumulation and ending as a few flakes and I think I'm going to be on the ending as a few flakes side
 
I don't feel great about the south side of the snow at all. Looks like it's going to be a tight gradient between accumulation and ending as a few flakes and I think I'm going to be on the ending as a few flakes side
Yep agree. Once I saw the HrrrRrR tick north with the main axis of accums, the writing was kind of on the wall for me. Models usually tend to see the delayed cooling around the 36-24 hour mark, thus adjusting the totals down across the southern areas. I still think a dusting look doable. Maybe an inch or so across the northern part of Wake.
 
I don't feel great about the south side of the snow at all. Looks like it's going to be a tight gradient between accumulation and ending as a few flakes and I think I'm going to be on the ending as a few flakes side
The 0C line is north of 64 and around the 401 /us1 corridor on the Gfs now for wake . Been creeping north . Anyways , I may have to take away your pants bursting alert .

Imma see wake forest with a couple inches and I’ll be enjoying a few flakes , not even enough to cover the grass. That’s how it goes normally .
 
As per usual, Roxboro will be the jackpot zone. GFS is WAY over amped on the precip amounts while the NAM is underdone on the QPF. Anybody in the northern counties and SE of there will do well. Unfortunately it looks like Charlotte Metro may miss out
 
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FYI hrrr has been sneakily raising temps across the area the past several runs. Most of TN has gone from 2-4 to a dusting...

Hopefully we don’t see the same for you guys.

E84171E8-C729-44B3-96BB-BDA8012BAE0D.gifAD89C30F-4F96-45D3-9274-A9770D53ED79.gif
 
Then again, I was wrong about this thing moving way North the other day and it is more creeping North than flying North like I thought
 
FYI hrrr has been sneakily raising temps across the area the past several runs. Most of TN has gone from 2-4 to a dusting...

Hopefully we don’t see the same for you guys.

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Looks like it’s raising temps for here as well. Biggest bust potential on the low side for southern wake south . Still thing northern wake north look good , could eat into accums though, 1-3 instead of the modeled 4-5 lol. We will see , 12 hours from now would be nowcasting time .
 
Yep agree. Once I saw the HrrrRrR tick north with the main axis of accums, the writing was kind of on the wall for me. Models usually tend to see the delayed cooling around the 36-24 hour mark, thus adjusting the totals down across the southern areas. I still think a dusting look doable. Maybe an inch or so across the northern part of Wake.
Looks like a typical setup where the winners win around here. Meh
 
Looks like a typical setup where the winners win around here. Meh

Yeah I'm more nervous around here. Theres that precip minimum popping up over my area and then any warming temps just hurt us bigtime in this setup.
 
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