I wouldn’t count on it.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
I wouldn’t count on it.
iGRXY
Member
Might update this one more time this afternoon after a couple more runs to see what we are looking at.
Cautiously optimistic but there are several hurdles to overcome for this to be significant (2" plus) event. If it was turning up the coast sure, but it's heading due east and exiting stage right quick, as @Poimen stated a couple of times there is really a small window of snowfall. Couple that with very wet soils, rain transitioning to snow and usually CAA slower to get here then modeled, I have tempered expectations. Although I do feel like there will be an hour or two of moderate to heavy rates which will be fun
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looking even better around here.
Damn the NAM caved hard 
packfan98
Moderator
BOOM!
NWS blend of models, seems realistic... imho 2" seems the high side here but hope I'm wrong
NAMed 
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Welcome to the party, NAM. Interesting for the Triad crowd, the NAM sounding for 10 pm is giving a best guess "snow." It's close for sure. *IF* we can get snow by 10-11 that could make a difference.
Good to see the NAM cave. Basically lines up with the GFS and HRRR now. I would say pay attention to its thermals and see if it sniffs out any screw job warm noses. It’s good at that.
Looks to me that the heaviest snow may be setting up from Greensboro to Durham based on the 12z short range modeling, though I should probably adjust that northward in reality.
Looks to me that the heaviest snow may be setting up from Greensboro to Durham based on the 12z short range modeling, though I should probably adjust that northward in reality.
Yep looks like the 3k NAM coming in more juiced too, this now is all about thermals and how far NW the warm nose gets. Let's go
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Which model is better on the temps? NAM, HRRR, or RAP? Because there's a pretty good difference on them . At least for my area
Damn GFSv16 might score one 
snowlover91
Member
Typically 3km NAM is best on thermals in my experience from past storms.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I know the 3km NAM was really good with thermals yesterday. I know this is a different set up though
Being on the northern side means rates aren't as intense but that's a beautiful sounding, not even close to a warm nose
In general regardless of setup the NAMs usually (not always but usually) do a better job with thermals, if they start hinting at a warm nose it's a warning shot to pay attention
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I just feel like there's been a couple times this year where each model has done better than the other. Regardless, every model looks really good for your area! Good luck!
NCSNOW
Member
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Agree: You have to watch em all and when one is polar opposite of the rest of the bunch like the Nam was on qpf. You watch and see if the bunch trend toward it or if it trends toward the bunch.
Same deal with Sunday. The Globals all have a good size storm here except gFS currently. so watch H5 and see who iis trending toward who. Thats usually the way the pendellum will swing.
Poimen & Metwannabe: Look and maybe their is a brief window for a pivot. That would be after all of us transition to snow, cause it want happen until the Low is exiting the coast. Models dont catch those sometimes and they add a couple hours of killer rates to the equation for wherever the deform band is set up when it happens. I havent seen it on any of the loops . The cams would catch it 1st and closer in to game time this evening.