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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Another superb HRRR run!
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I still don't see anything more than 4-6" anywhere. Snowfall ratio isn't gonna go to 10:1 or above due to the warmth and the melting rate upon contact with ground. It'll be wet snow slop and not the type to accumulate easily.
Certainly not a fan of the soil temperatures. Although, if we get a good period of 50dbz snow, then this isn't as large of a barrier. Big wet snowflakes are pretty effective in accumulating with my experience.
The trend at the surface has also been colder 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Staying in the 40's and 50's instead of 70 yesterday night help a lot of people
Sorry, 99% of them.
You do realize that totals are backing down from the insane garbage they were spewing out yesterday, right? There is going to be a warm nose somewhere in this that really lessens totals. On top of that, I think the 2M temps are going to limit a lot of what is “predicted” by the numerical models.
Downeastnc
Member
PGV can do well in these.....need the offshore low to take over quicker and to hang out a bit to really hit those higher totals though I think....if somehow we get temps to 30 and can snow good for 6+ hrs then sure 4-6" is doable but I have my doubts that works out...1-2" is the call for now from the NWS and that seems more likely than 4-6" at this point.......that said its been a long long time since something bust big in our favor, mother nature owes us one....
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Still think these soil temperatures will be enough to melt some of modeled snowfall. Another reason to shave these totals down a bit from model outputs.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Not sure what you're looking at, but the Euro and NAM have increased today, and the GFS and HRRR have been holding steady. Anyway, not sure why you seem to have such an attitude about it. It's weird.
SouthSideYankee
Member
I agree. If anything totals look to have gone up.
I don’t have an attitude. I honestly hope you get to see what you’re thinking might happen. Honestly.
I agree. I haven't seen below freezing soil temperatures in over three years, but I think that it depends on where you measure. Elevated surfaces and grass may come closer to modeled snow, but there may be a limited, or non-existent issue with roads.
The qpf has increased on the NAM. Don’t think anywhere will see the amount of snow predicted.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
If there’s such a thing as a 158 special, this looks like the right setup.
Doesn’t have the same ring to it as an I-40 special though. (or even 64)
Doesn’t have the same ring to it as an I-40 special though. (or even 64)
SouthSideYankee
Member
But we already knew this ?
I think that the first to change over will be up that way, but I don't think that I-40 will get shut out considering that they/we will have the highest rates and a relatively long time as snow.
Interesting considering the HRRR has it happening an hour earlier.
