SouthSideYankee
Member
I'll be honest the gfs has been so consistent I think it's going to surprise a lot of people. 5+"
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
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Brick Tamland
Guest
And all the other models are pretty much following suit now.
SouthSideYankee
Member
I'm lik
I'm like 10 min south of y'all off sherron rd.
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.
Nice! You seem to be in a relatively good spot for this!
Yeah, I would definitely be concerned about that in the Triad. Less so here, but it’s still a worry (the UKMET is pretty paltry here, too). It’s bizarre that we are at basically zero hour and we have one model’s ensemble mean showing damn near 12” at the GSO airport and the UKMET showing zilch!My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.
Yeah, the GEFS is off it's rocker with that 12" mean.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Anything GFS related is off it’s rocker.
SouthSideYankee
Member
WRAL is saying 1-2 (+)" leaving room to add more accumulation. I expect them to add to their amounts.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically every model has trended synoptically to what the GFS/GEFS has been showing for several days so I wouldn't say that here.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, Euro, NAM, HRRR have all fallen in line with the GFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.
The UKMET is showing a weaker/more suppressed 850mb low than other guidance atm which is why you're not seeing much on this run over the Triad. I'm not really buying that here though. Most times in the short-range these 850 lows amp and tick NW slightly, blocking of the low-level cold by the mountains will also entice some very minor NW adjustments that are better for the Triad.
SouthSideYankee
Member
Gfs really hasn't been that bad in my opinion since I've started following models 3 years ago. It did well in 2018 when durham got 7+".
Downeastnc
Member
Be interesting to see how the local offices handle the noon runs.....MHX calling for 1-2" here right now dont see much reason for them to change that at this point...
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
One thing I am picking up when you blend all these together is the Greenville up slightly NW to Rocky Mount, NC areas.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Not sure if I posted this earlier this morning, but I made a snow accumulation map. I do think I'm too low for eastern NC, though... this is already few hours outdated.
NCSNOW
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To go along with webbS point. From another met on another board.
Alright, glad the qpf picture got cleared up. i think there's more frontier to to figure out- how the cycle evolves. (i'm going to say cyclogenesis some here which basically means the formation of low pressure)
Guidance has a pretty interesting method of cyclogenesis- we don't get this that often to it's hard to say this definitively, but it appears we go lee cyclogenesis against the apps before a low forms off the coast? I'll pull a pressure field from an arbitrary model:
We got two low pressure centers- one off the coast (as expected) but another floating around northern South Carolina. I think that this is doing two things:
-enhancing precip in the western piedmont and
-delaying the changeover in the eastern piedmont.
how this feature is modeled is something i'm keeping an eye on. i have *no idea* how this will evolve because we simply don't see setups like this very often and i don't have a sleeve for this in my mental rolodex. but, i think that if the coastal develops more quickly, surface winds will have a more northerly component and expedite cold air advection. this would mean less precip i think for, say, davidson.
My best friend lives in Reidsville just off 158. I think I’m gonna call him tomorrow to find out how it went.
I like this trend, was getting scared that I could get blanked here with nada, but with those rates/trend at 925 I’m not so sure, it’s getting better tho aloft for many 
No they’re not.