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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

What reasons do you guys think the GFSv16 outperformed other guidance much further in advance with the idea of the snow? (not speaking eventualy amounts here).. was the Euro too flat further out? The NAM's dry bias may have been the reason it didn't want to show the light precipitation changing over?
 
Words can’t describe the scene right now outside ... I was having my doubts about accumulation but the snow just transformed and now it really looks like a white out
 
Just woke up again, big flakes coming down, sticking a bit to elevated surfaces. Still pretty light, though. Think I’ll hit the hay until 3 am, and then I’ll be up for the rest of the storm, however long they may be...

There’s tons of standing water everywhere from all the rain.
 
It's early... but I do think that area between Roxboro to Henderson to Rocky Mount will end up being the jackpot zone. Already getting 2" reports from Roxboro and Henderson.

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Snow rate is starting to pick up here. Slush is starting to accumulate on cars, nothing on the ground yet, though. Some of you all S/E of here look to be doing a lot better, not super encouraged right now, TBH.
 
You pay attention ANYTIME you get snow bands to reach over 30-35 dbz... granted, the melting is probably giving off this signature rather than intense snowfall rate. These pivoting bands should generate great results for Roxboro-Henderson-Rocky Mount region that I mentioned.

1611820188920.png
 
You pay attention ANYTIME you get snow bands to reach over 30-35 dbz... granted, the melting is probably giving off this signature rather than intense snowfall rate. These pivoting bands should generate great results for Roxboro-Henderson-Rocky Mount region that I mentioned.

View attachment 68734
Don’t forget wake
 
Decent snow right now but this looks like the last gasp here. No accumulation anywhere
I don’t think so, it’s still snowing in Greensboro. We should have a few hours of snow, at least. Got a quick dusting on the ground now, huge flakes, putting down nicely. Going to need this to keep up for a while if we want any chance of an inch or two, though...not super encouraged.

Going to take a Jeb Walk, looks real nice out now, if only it would keep up for a while.
 
Don’t forget wake

I mean... yes... but I was talking about how Roxboro-Henderson-Rocky Mount area should jackpot. They still got 2-3" more left in the tank per HRRR, using positive snow depth change product that's more accurate than 10:1 snowfall.
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Moderate snow at my house in SW Wilson County. Car tops are covered with a dusting on the ground 33.1 degrees

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You pay attention ANYTIME you get snow bands to reach over 30-35 dbz... granted, the melting is probably giving off this signature rather than intense snowfall rate. These pivoting bands should generate great results for Roxboro-Henderson-Rocky Mount region that I mentioned.

View attachment 68734

I actually think those DBZs are legit. 35 dbz snow generally equates to 1-1.5 inch per hour rates in marginal setups. Models had a period of intense lift for this region around this time due to frontogenetic forcing. That band is the big show of the night and will sweep east/southeast as the storm progresses.
 
6F447775-B53B-4024-9D14-BDDC04A69554.jpegWOW LOOK AT THIS SNOW SQUALL ... snow is already everywhere .. roofs and car tops white .. grass basically covered and if you look out there’s a white spec of snow everywhere in the air ... I can’t imagine what’s under this band
 
This first band is RIPPING snow here in northern JoCo... easily some of largest snowflakes I ever seen including my time in New England. Can confidently say this is 1-1.5"/hr rate if the ground was more frozen solid.
 
I actually think those DBZs are legit. 35 dbz snow generally equates to 1-1.5 inch per hour rates in marginal setups. Models had a period of intense lift for this region around this time due to frontogenetic forcing. That band is the big show of the night and will sweep east/southeast as the storm progresses.
Can confirm it's legit. If this was in New England with frozen ground, I'd say it's ripping snow at 1-1.5"/hr rate. Still think it'll end up 1"/hr rate.
 
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