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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Greg Fishel's FB:
"I WONT HAVE TO EAT THE ENTIRE CROW, BUT I MAY HAVE TO EAT PART OF IT!
Just wanted to alert you that my thinking may have to be altered for parts of the area. No, there won’t be a foot of snow anywhere, not even close, but there may be more than the light coating I spoke of earlier. The upper level system associated with this precipitation event tomorrow night is so strong that it may literally manufacture enough cold air to produce accumulating snow for a few hours. When air is lifted, it cools, and stable air cools more than unstable air. So vigorous upward motion in a stable air mass can produce significant cooling over a deep layer. That will be the key tomorrow night. We can’t rely on cold air damming, and the true arctic air is west of the mountains and unavailable. So the only hope for snow lovers is to manufacture the cold air via strong upward motion. Stay tuned!"
 
Fish is spot on. You have to have rates to score in this one, strong upward motion produces them. Weve all been saying that past 2 -3 days. Stronger is better and only route to score.
 
Never enough lol.
The Nam is on an island. And if it was a warm nose deal causing the weak sauce clown, id be siding with it. However this is all about qpf differences. Its the rates that one must have to flip over,cool top down. If the nam has the meager qpf output correct, then it beats all other modeling no doubt. If you watch its qpf comparing to itself,its baby stepping up each run. Coming toward all the other model consensus. Until that scenario trends the other way around, im not riding with it. Qpf wise for the moment, it appears to be out to lunch. Knock on wood.
Yeah if it was a warm nose issue I would totally take the nam. I'm not sure why the nam continues to come in flat and weak without budging but the longer it continues its still concerning.
 
The amount of Precip falling as rain beforehand is semi concerning. Snow falling into a wet surface sucks. It annihilates Accums
If models hold true ... the rates tomorrow over come this 10 fold .. temps crash to around freezing ... I believe we’re going to be in for a ton of great videos and pictures of thumping and rapidly accumulating snow
 
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