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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Rain Cold said:
Look at the NAM map. Very likely closer to reality than the others. Look at it.
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I did. Also looked at all the other maps showing something different. NAM is pretty much alone. GFS has remained steady. Euro increased by 3 times the amount. Other short range models are better, too. You be pessimistic if you want. I'll be optimistic and whatever happens will happen.
 
RVD said:
The one thing that's sort of irked me about this setup is the track of the 850 mb low directly through NC. We ideally would have that track further south, so as to avoid any warm nose woes. This problem has been largely offset by the strong confluence from a 50/50 low, giving a decent cold air source and the system a NW --> SE dive. Even as our wave has trended slower and more amped, the slowdown has allowed the second piece of cold air push (the upper level low over Canada) to pull a bit further ahead of the wave, reinforcing (improving even!) our cold air source.

But the 18z --> 00z HRRR trend is the first I've seen to buck that, with a slightly stronger, worse-oriented 850 low and warmer temps as a result. The sensible effects are minor in part because QPF was better this run, but changeover in Wake County was delayed by a few hours this time around. That changeover always seems to be done too fast, for that matter- don't need to go back more than a few weeks to find an example of that. If there's one thing I'm watching over the next day it's this- the only potential wrench I see for the time being.
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I'm actually hopeful for the time being that this 18z/00z change was more random noise/a blip, because it doesn't really fit the rest of the steady trends we've seen today. It's just a subtle thing I wanted to point out to keep an eye on. It's also something that I'd guess would be a problem for Raleigh and points SE. Those further north seem to be, as expected, timing things better with the cold air.
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Makes sense. More WAA means heavier precip rates, but it also means more warm air moderating the mid levels. What you want is balance....like a tightrope...too much WAA and you get mix/rain. Not enough and you get light snowfall rates. However, if you get that right balance, you get heavy snow. You want to be on the winning side of the battle between cold and warm air. Where the line of demarcation sets up determines who wins and who loses. Just pray your backyard is not on the losing side.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I did. Also looked at all the other maps showing something different. NAM is pretty much alone. GFS has remained steady. Euro increased by 3 times the amount. Other short range models are better, too. You be pessimistic if you want. I'll be optimistic and whatever happens will happen.
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Or you could just look at maps and not apply any reasoning and just hope the one that has your house in the jackpot is right. I guess that works too.
 
Rain Cold said:
Or you could just look at maps and not apply any reasoning and just hope the one that has your house in the jackpot is right. I guess that works too.
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What reasoning is that? I told you my reasons. The other models continue to hold steady or improve. The NAM is alone right now. Not sure why you have to be a jerk to me because I am being optimistic.
 
Yeah all the cams show way more precip than the nams
 

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Brick Tamland said:
What reasoning is that? I told you my reasons. The other models continue to hold steady or improve. The NAM is alone right now. Not sure why you have to be a jerk to me because I am being optimistic.
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Ok it's cool be optimistic. Nam is probably wrong. GFS is usually right when it shows the most snow. I forgot. My bad.
 
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