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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

ryan1234 said:
Yup. But why is that surprising? I don't think I could ever have zero respect for anyone in the scientific community. But JB takes the cake. I can't stand that man. Anyhow, let's focus on this next week. Hoping for the best, for all of us!
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I have nothing against Bastardi other than if weather isn't affecting the NE, it's not happening lol. Good luck to you snowbirds to the north of me, I hope you guys cash in!
 
The one thing that's sort of irked me about this setup is the track of the 850 mb low directly through NC. We ideally would have that track further south, so as to avoid any warm nose woes. This problem has been largely offset by the strong confluence from a 50/50 low, giving a decent cold air source and the system a NW --> SE dive. Even as our wave has trended slower and more amped, the slowdown has allowed the second piece of cold air push (the upper level low over Canada) to pull a bit further ahead of the wave, reinforcing (improving even!) our cold air source.

But the 18z --> 00z HRRR trend is the first I've seen to buck that, with a slightly stronger, worse-oriented 850 low and warmer temps as a result. The sensible effects are minor in part because QPF was better this run, but changeover in Wake County was delayed by a few hours this time around. That changeover always seems to be done too fast, for that matter- don't need to go back more than a few weeks to find an example of that. If there's one thing I'm watching over the next day it's this- the only potential wrench I see for the time being.
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I'm actually hopeful for the time being that this 18z/00z change was more random noise/a blip, because it doesn't really fit the rest of the steady trends we've seen today. It's just a subtle thing I wanted to point out to keep an eye on. It's also something that I'd guess would be a problem for Raleigh and points SE. Those further north seem to be, as expected, timing things better with the cold air.
 
Broken024 said:
I don't doubt the nam. I've had gfs and ensembles show 8 inches while nam show all rain and goose egg. Good luck sir
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After today I bow down to the NAM. It is my savior . Whenever I go to pray to it on tropical tidbits I make sure to bow down, and not make eye contact unless told to. NAM is life .

Anyways the trends on the HRRR and NAM would give places like Greenville and Raleigh a tad to worry about . We shall see what they say tomorrow .
 
Should be interesting to see what CAMs do here shortly
 
Lickwx said:
After today I bow down to the NAM. It is my savior . Whenever I go to pray to it on tropical tidbits I make sure to bow down, and not make eye contact unless told to. NAM is life .

Anyways the trends on the HRRR and NAM would give places like Greenville and Raleigh a tad to worry about . We shall see what they say tomorrow .
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Yep it may show some crazy snow totals but if it showing dogshit I'd be concerned.
 
We haven't had any problem getting precip all month. Really going back to all of last year. I just don't buy the NAM over all the other models that have continued to increase or hold steady with the precip and snow amounts. I really wonder when they tried to fix the NAM's bias of overdoing precip if they made it just as bad in undergoing precip.
 
I'm booked for Gatlinburg. Leaving 3 am in the morning.
 
Broken024 said:
I don't doubt the nam. I've had gfs and ensembles show 8 inches while nam show all rain and goose egg. Good luck sir
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It's not just the GFS. It has support from other global and short range models.
 
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