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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Avalanche said:
You hate to lose the potential of a system like this to surface temps. Really is frustrating.
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Looks like RDU is at 50 as of 5pm. I recall with the Feb Feb 2015 system in Greensboro, we warmed into the 50s during the day under sunshine, but by 9 or 10 pm it was snowing heavily with temperatures near freezing, and we ended up with 6.4”. There is reason to be hopeful, but also concerned. I am usually too optimistic, mind you....

I think 1-3” for us, maybe 2-4” as you get north of Durham. I will be disappointed with less than an inch. Of course, I hold out hope for a 3-6” positive bust......
 
ryan1234 said:
LOL. I am drinking an IPA as well. Love me some Voodoo Ranger IPA. Probably will skip the Tom Collins though. Need to have my wits tomorrow. ? You may actually end up doing okay!
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Love the Voodoo as well. Once I had my first IPA over snow frustration, I never went back to Lagers. Go drive yourself down 421 towards Boone and enjoy the 3-6 they are calling for. All snow, and winds to boot. Should be a pretty sight.
 
Avalanche said:
You hate to lose the potential of a system like this to surface temps. Really is frustrating.
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Well, you gotta lose it to something. Might as well be warm temps! A nice snowy 49 at the casa right now. Expecting that slow drop until the temperature-stabilizing cloud deck rolls in. Then we'll drift slowly through the 40s as the precip falls. Still think we see some flakes though.
 
Avalanche said:
Love the Voodoo as well. Once I had my first IPA over snow frustration, I never went back to Lagers. Go drive yourself down 421 towards Boone and enjoy the 3-6 they are calling for. All snow, and winds to boot. Should be a pretty sight.
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It's my go-to! I've considered doing a snowchase. But it's just not the same as experiencing it in your backyard. Hey, we still have a few good weeks of potential before Spring arrives. Let's hope we can get a board-wide storm before then. ?
 
KyloG said:
HRRR changes looks like noise to me....not my favorite model though.

Past 5 runs

View attachment 68586
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Yeah, definitely dangerous to try to decipher minute trends from a model that runs every hour. There’s always going to be small differences, and it runs 24 times a day...
 
superjames1992 said:
Looks like RDU is at 50 as of 5pm. I recall with the Feb Feb 2015 system in Greensboro, we warmed into the 50s during the day under sunshine, but by 9 or 10 pm it was snowing heavily with temperatures near freezing, and we ended up with 6.4”. There is reason to be hopeful, but also concerned. I am usually too optimistic, mind you....

I think 1-3” for us, maybe 2-4” as you get north of Durham. I will be disappointed with less than an inch. Of course, I hold out hope for a 3-6” positive bust......
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43° here 5miles W of KECG. We were supposed to hit 52° today, but only got to 46°. Hopefully we clear out some to get more cooling.
 
ryan1234 said:
LOL. I am drinking an IPA as well. Love me some Voodoo Ranger IPA. Probably will skip the Tom Collins though. Need to have my wits tomorrow. ? You may actually end up doing okay!
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Voodoo Ranger is pretty good bang for the buck up here and a solid brew. frequent sales too. 43/32 here. Clouds rolled in right at sunset so not great for radiational cooling this evening. Soundings look good, just surface issues here once the rain gets here. Just curious how long changeover takes.
 
46.9/45, never saw the sun today, been socked in with low clouds, high was 51.8 at 3:30PM, light ESE wind. I think we are in a good spot with the usual areas just to our north, Edgecombe, Halifax, Nash sitting a little better. 1-3" for PGV proper, seasonal avg (~3") in 1 system is a win these days, changeover 1AM, sooner or later will obviously impact totals, always hate being dependent on a transition from RN to SN around here. I do like the Albemarle fetch signature that has shown up off and on over the past couple days.
 
Cloud deck showed up thick, 5 minutes before sunset. Kid you not. 48
Been on the fence all day. Because we have to wait for rates to cool us too down and because insane rates here will be short lived. Itll be a fight to get an inch in the grass around 2 to 3 am this morning. Jackpot is from Bunn to Roanoke Rapids/ Aventon to Murfreesboro. Look for a 3 -4 lollipop on an elevated surfaces in this area. Going 2.1 inches Bricks backyard.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Whatever happens will happen. No use fussing over the models now. Sometimes wonder why we put ourselves through all this instead of just seeing what happens like non weather board folks.
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Because we're all weenies and the ride is fun. 8-9 times out of 10, I'm gonna be disappointed, but that one time I'm not keeps me coming back time and time again. It's just like gambling
 
I think the QPF totals are decreasing west to East with the East getting much more. However, they will experience a lot of snow loss due to the temperatures being on the warm side until very early in the morning Thursday. Hopefully they will get some back end thump to make up for some of the loss during the day. I don't have a pretty map but will say W-S to Burlington will get around an inch of slushy snow and areas in North Raleigh and north and East could end yp with 1-3". Roxboro and East (like Roanoke Rapids) could see 3-5 if not much rain mixes in.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Whatever happens will happen. No use fussing over the models now. Sometimes wonder why we put ourselves through all this instead of just seeing what happens like non weather board folks.
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Personally, I like the journey...the ups and downs and downs and downs. Plus, it's fun to try to forecast stuff.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Voodoo Ranger is pretty good bang for the buck up here and a solid brew. frequent sales too. 43/32 here. Clouds rolled in right at sunset so not great for radiational cooling this evening. Soundings look good, just surface issues here once the rain gets here. Just curious how long changeover takes.
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We will see, my friend. Us Roanoke’s are hoping for anything.
 
A mtn poster around 3500 ft. Went from 52 to 35,mix in about 90 mins. 17 degree drop once precip started. So my guess is we are looking at about 2 to 3 hour rain before we flip at a minimum. GSO is 900ish ft above sea level
 
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