Hot diggity damn 
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
Crazy part is AI could be better with the tilt but it works regardless. Beautiful run man
a few things can be true at the same time
having a "conservative" reputation is preferable to having a "boys cries wolf" reputation. everyone here rags on brad p - idk why. he's a savvy vet that knows not to fan the flames on facebook unless a signal is ironclad
some of yall are really smart and could go toe to toe with many, if not most mets in winter storm forecasting
BHS1975
Member
More tilt means more warm nose.
AI tried to go for another one lol weenie fuel, but verbatim that’s snow in FL/SGA
There is your board crasher.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Ok snow in florida might be a little crazy
So we will do a 2/12/2010 and a 1/28/14 within a few days, cool.
AI just showed us this look twice in a run. We barely get these looks in winter anymore normally
Snowlover34
Member
The weather channel has definitely lower the temps here Imby
iGRXY
Member
Typically yes but not when you have this much arctic air sitting on top of you. 0C 850’s down deep in the gulf, you can afford more tilt.
Makeitsnow
Member
Yep..some of us tried to tell him but he thought he knew it all. I don't want to trash him too much as that was quite some time ago and people change but the Dude was arrogant as hell.
The Euro AI has had some ups and downs so far this winter, but it was the first to really latch on to the -NAO idea.
I made a post about it 5 days ago....
"The Euro AI has had mixed results with its long-range ideas over the past month. It was good with the early Dec cold and the current cold snap (although it was too bold with the western ridge), but it was awful with missing the upcoming Gulf of AK low and mild/warm pattern (it wanted to keep western ridging going, a big miss).......Anyway, the last 2 runs have some nice features. Good Greenland blocking with a steady feed of low pressure underneath - has the look of a block that will last more than a day. And with more momentum working across the N Pacific, trying to prevent the cold from staying out west. We can do some damage with these looks"
Link to the post with a loop of the images then: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/jan-2025-powered-by-rheem-ac.1349/post-734531
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I'll keep this one but anymore about this in this thread will be deleted, please move this discussion to banter please. Thank you
Makeitsnow
Member
Its one thing to get 1...another to get 2 days apart but add in crazy cold....its the stuff the things dreams are made of. Not much to add as many have already expressed the exact same opinion as I've thought and it's way into fantasy range but man it's hard not to be unusually optimistic given the time range. To maybe add something, you know you are doing well in the cold department when there is no upper savannah river/lee side screw zone is even being hinted at. Would be real lovely if we can get these inside at least a week to 5 days though so it isn't totally crazy to try and get into some details without making yourself look like a total weenie.
No problem...probably should have bit my tongue anyway. Apologies.
From the 12z gfs..not sure I've ever seen the 0c 925mb isotherm touching Cuba before.
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Brent
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Imho, nearly everything this winter has been going to plan from a long range perspective.
Now the question is does this pattern persist past mid-month? Even if it doesn’t, if we put a lot of snow down the next couple weeks, we got a shot to keep the gravy train rolling a little longer. These kinds of patterns tend to feed back on themselves
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Now the question is does this pattern persist past mid-month? Even if it doesn’t, if we put a lot of snow down the next couple weeks, we got a shot to keep the gravy train rolling a little longer. These kinds of patterns tend to feed back on themselves
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’ve always felt like the hardest part of this coming winter to nail down was this forthcoming transition zone in late January into the beginning of Feb.
The outcome of this winter from about MLK Day or so and into early Feb is dependent to a large degree on what we do in the earlier part of the month & the stratosphere to some extent as well.
I think we’re making the right moves now to keep things at least more interesting way down the road
The outcome of this winter from about MLK Day or so and into early Feb is dependent to a large degree on what we do in the earlier part of the month & the stratosphere to some extent as well.
I think we’re making the right moves now to keep things at least more interesting way down the road
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Imho, nearly everything this winter has been going to plan from a long range perspective.
Now the question is does this pattern persist past mid-month? Even if it doesn’t, if we put a lot of snow down the next couple weeks, we got a shot to keep the gravy train rolling a little longer. These kinds of patterns tend to feed back on themselves
Honestly, you have been plugging 2013-2014 for months and if this huge cold shot comes to fruition, you would have been pretty much dead on.
big difference here on the 00z GFS. Let’s see what this does 
Still think we gonna be ok. Probably be several different looks next coming days.
i meant it by it looks better for sure
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, I remember it well. As a matter of fact, I might have been in that conversation concerning CAD in NC.
You can just see the huge cold shot coming from that image and that isn’t far off.
Greenland block is even stronger, and no ridging before the next energy
wow
Member
Looks more like 6z but stronger Greenland block. This more of a killer overrunning event instead of an amped up wave like the last run.
JLL1973
Member
Gfs has some light snow breaking out here in the midsouth at hour 186
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Still not a bad look here for the board. However, it would be hard to get it to snow well down into the carolina’s with a weak high over top and a vort max that wants to dive into Texas. Good thing it’s just one op run.
NCSNOW
Member
severestorm
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian
wow
Member
Classic GFS move botching the separate waves and forcing a phase too quickly. Actually good to see.
NCSNOW
Member
Retreat
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs clown , same time. Jan5 -7
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
In case anyone was curious.