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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

ILMRoss said:
i feel a littler better about this window than early december. early december looked drier than british humour from the jump. ensembles seem to markedly more excited about the first week of january in comparison
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I honestly don’t.

There’s not a whole lot of differences between this and early December overall until we get to about Jan 6-7th or so and beyond. The mean trough axis is way too far east and polar jet dominant to get anything more than clipper systems for most of the first week of January.
 
Today's Euro Weekly for Jan 13-20

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Webberweather53 said:
I honestly don’t.

There’s not a whole lot of differences between this and early December overall until we get to about Jan 6-7th or so and beyond. The mean trough axis is way too far east and polar jet dominant to get anything more than clipper systems for most of the first week of January.
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yeah? well, you know, that's just like, your opinion man
 
If you want to see snow, you either need the main trough axis anomaly to center itself over the TN Valley (Miller A pathway) or you need to create enough stream separation to get overrunning/cold air damming (Miller B) or some combination of the two.

A big fat wound up & northern stream dominated trough sitting along or just barely off the east coast without a good southern stream and disturbance to separate from it, usually doesn’t get the job done outside of a clipper system (like we saw in early to mid December)

I don’t think we have the right mean pattern just yet during most of the first week of January, except on the GEFS to some degree, but I (still) have concerns about it still not properly handling the pacific jet extension. If we reverse the trends we’ve seen the past day or so, albeit only mildly (because we don’t want too much western troughing), I’ll be more intrigued about potential right at the beginning of January.

Imho, better chances are probably right after this period when the wave pattern starts to retreat

IMG_4106.png

IMG_4107.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to see snow, you either need the main trough axis anomaly to center itself over the TN Valley (Miller A pathway) or you need to create enough stream separation to get overrunning/cold air damming (Miller B) or some combination of the two.

A big fat wound up & northern stream dominated trough sitting along or just barely off the east coast without a good southern stream and disturbance to separate from it, usually doesn’t get the job done outside of a clipper system (like we saw in early to mid December)

I don’t think we have the right mean pattern just yet during most of the first week of January, except on the GEFS to some degree, but I (still) have concerns about it still not properly handling the pacific jet extension. If we reverse the trends we’ve seen the past day or so, albeit only mildly (because we don’t want too much western troughing), I’ll be more intrigued about potential right at the beginning of January.

Imho, better chances are probably right after this period when the wave pattern starts to retreat

View attachment 156787

View attachment 156788
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I completely agree with your assessment, but think it still bears watching. It’s certainly closer than we are to snow 95+% of the year, so might as well. If the long wave pattern evolves as modeled, we’re dry and cold for sure. But that can still adjust enough IMO, especially in the next few days.
 
We need that pacific jet backed up to what the EPS looked like 2 days ago at 12z in all honesty. It’s just pressed to far east on the EPS the last 2 days. Need that to revert. 12z finally did it a bit but we need a days worth of a trend to bring that look back. If we can do that, that first initial batch of energy that crosses the PNW can dig efficiently
 
1300m said:
I completely agree with your assessment, but think it still bears watching. It’s certainly closer than we are to snow 95+% of the year, so might as well. If the long wave pattern evolves as modeled, we’re dry and cold for sure. But that can still adjust enough IMO, especially in the next few days.
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The longwave pattern probably won’t fundamentally change that much & it honestly hasn’t in over a week plus of watching this period come into view. Not to mention, retraction isn’t really supported just quite yet, til we get past the first week of January.

We really need a shortwave to dig and separate itself from the main trough enough to score something more substantial than a low end clipper type event (thinking more of a Miller B or overrunning type pathway has a better chance here). I don’t see the trough axis shifting far enough to the west (TN Valley) to give us a classic Miller A type system.

Could the latter happen after the first week of January?! Yeah absolutely
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you want to see snow, you either need the main trough axis anomaly to center itself over the TN Valley (Miller A pathway) or you need to create enough stream separation to get overrunning/cold air damming (Miller B) or some combination of the two.

A big fat wound up & northern stream dominated trough sitting along or just barely off the east coast without a good southern stream and disturbance to separate from it, usually doesn’t get the job done outside of a clipper system (like we saw in early to mid December)

I don’t think we have the right mean pattern just yet during most of the first week of January, except on the GEFS to some degree, but I (still) have concerns about it still not properly handling the pacific jet extension. If we reverse the trends we’ve seen the past day or so, albeit only mildly (because we don’t want too much western troughing), I’ll be more intrigued about potential right at the beginning of January.

Imho, better chances are probably right after this period when the wave pattern starts to retreat

View attachment 156787

View attachment 156788
Click to expand...
Wasn't we really looking at the 7th Beyond for something to develop anyway? I didn't think we were ever looking at something before then
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We need that pacific jet backed up to what the EPS looked like 2 days ago at 12z in all honesty. It’s just pressed to far east on the EPS the last 2 days. Need that to revert. 12z finally did it a bit but we need a days worth of a trend to bring that look back. If we can do that, that first initial batch of energy that crosses the PNW can dig efficiently
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This is exactly right. The long wave pattern (which inherently will rely on individual short waves to produce an event) only needs a minor adjustment to get us back into the game. The 12z 12/25 EPS showed how close it is IMO. With our luck we probably won't ever get back there or continue to improve, but we might as well watch. Looking D15+ isn't my cup of tea.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1735214400-1735927200-1735927200-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-namer-snow_72hr-1735214400-1736251200-1736251200-40.gif
 
There's really just not a way to know exactly where the trough sets up this far in advance. Even if it does establish itself too far east or west, it likely won't anchor in place for days on end. Plus, the smaller scale details that influence storm development are completely unforeseeable at this point.

The EPS has trended unfavorably, while the GEFS gas trended favorably. I get that the background state may favor one solution over the other, but that doesn't guarantee any particular outcome.

There appears to be more energy this go-round. That's advantageous.
 
I’ll be honest. I hold little regard for the GFS and it’s ensembles .. more often than not it’s incorrect in its medium and long range outputs (more than usual) and is following the footsteps of the euro and Canadian .. those models I would hold more respect towards.

Just something to think about as we progress through the next few weeks. That January 2nd system the GFS and its ensembles have been eyeing on have finally started falling apart while the other models were never that excited about it. GFS playing catchup per usual .. so it will not receive my respect until proven otherwise.
 
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