Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[severestorm]

 

[Ross]

You can see the axis going negative before crossing the Mississippi.. that'll pull the primary up over the TN while the secondary low bombs out off the Atlantic coast. Just a learning exercise right now. 99% this won't verify (for better or worse)

View attachment 157190

obviously dumb to split hairs on a 258 hour storm


but this would be running into a cad and if this came to pass I'd imagine there'd be a lot of bickering over cyclogenesis location and p-types

 

[Chazwin]

that was a great storm for my area!

Mine too. Between the two systems over 3 days I ended up with right at 11”

 

[1300m]

obviously dumb to split hairs on a 258 hour storm

View attachment 157192
but this would be running into a cad and if this came to pass I'd imagine there'd be a lot of bickering over cyclogenesis location and p-types

100%. This is the GFS past truncation, thus the details are wholly irrelevant.

 

[iGRXY]

I can smell the front end FGEN thump from here

 

[Snowlover34]

 

[wow]

obviously dumb to split hairs on a 258 hour storm


but this would be running into a cad and if this came to pass I'd imagine there'd be a lot of bickering over cyclogenesis location and p-types

pretty much! just one of many possibilities

 

[LickWx]

Wow! What a wedge , 24 and sleet /ice in central nc and 60s on the coast. Love that mighty little ridge in Florida this run

 

[severestorm]

 

[iGRXY]

The cold after on the GFS is ridiculous

 

[wow]

GFS puts us in the deep freeze after that...

barely cracking 15 for a high on 1/11 IMBY

 

[iGRXY]

Border to border Barney

 

[JHS]

The cold after on the GFS is ridiculous

All-time records in danger. 1985 like cold for those of us who are old enough to remember it. -15 for a low here would be crazy.

 

[packfan98]

Yeah, the rest of the run might be pointless to examine. Positive steps towards an early event and cold afterwards is the takeaway. On to the ensembles!

 

[RTRwx]

This is ultra fantasy land but this look is just ridiculous.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Interrupting the GFS talk for a quick second. Here are the weeniest EPS members. Absolute bangers View attachment 157182View attachment 157183View attachment 157184View attachment 157181View attachment 157189

Holy Moly Clark!! Should I play the lottery with those numbers!!! My heavens!!! What glory!!! My dogs were born in September 2019… never seen more than an isolated flurry!!! I am beyond excited for any of these to verify even if by 1/2!!!

 

[Mitch West]

Snowing at such cold temps it's got weather bell glitching up.
SN

 

[Snowfan]

Talk about record lows.

 

[iGRXY]

Days with highs in the teens and lows below zero. Whatever falls is staying for a while

 

[griteater]

Storm and cold is nice and all, but this blocking ridge over Greenland

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 157193

Looks like a get warm-nosed on this just a bit but it's so far out in time it's irrelevant. Glad we are getting a storm on the op run now

 

[iGRXY]

We’re about to drop another round down

 

[Rain Cold]

Storm and cold is nice and all, but this blocking ridge over Greenland

The cross-polar flow with that insane, perfectly placed Greenland block is true Day After Tomorrow-type stuff. Just legendary.

Man, I hope that makes it into the 48 hour range.

 

[RTRwx]

To top it off, the end of this bonkers GFS run has cold air reloading and dropping south. I think the Tennessee river would freeze over if this run were to verify. Lol.

 

[ForsythSnow]

View attachment 157206
View attachment 157207
We’re about to drop another round down

That cold is just beyond cold. Highs in the mid teens with lows below 0 I don't think I've seen before myself. I'd be curious to see any similar events to this and the patterns before them to see if we line up.

 

[Snowfan]

That cold is just beyond cold. Highs in the mid teens with lows below 0 I don't think I've seen before myself. I'd be curious to see any similar events to this and the patterns before them to see if we line up.

The latest CPC composite references 1985.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Snowing at such cold temps it's got weather bell glitching up.
View attachment 157201SNView attachment 157202

Weenie question: would that be snow as far south as ATL or confine to the Carolinas?

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That cold is just beyond cold. Highs in the mid teens with lows below 0 I don't think I've seen before myself. I'd be curious to see any similar events to this and the patterns before them to see if we line up.

The only time I recall temps in the Teens in the afternoon in Georgia was in February 1996 and January 2014.

 

[griteater]

The cross-polar flow with that insane, perfectly placed Greenland block is true Day After Tomorrow-type stuff. Just legendary.

Man, I hope that makes it into the 48 hour range.

NAO and AO trends on the GFS

 

[Snowfan]

NAO and AO trends on the GFS

View attachment 157208

View attachment 157209

Dang the -AO goes off the charts. That's how you get a TPV over Atlanta.

 

[Billypg70]

That cold is just beyond cold. Highs in the mid teens with lows below 0 I don't think I've seen before myself. I'd be curious to see any similar events to this and the patterns before them to see if we line up.

75-81, 83, 85 Jan 88, Dec 89
All were plenty cold.
I think 85 had a high in the upper teens low at -6 at GSP.

Feb 96, Jan 14, Jan 18 & Dec 22
All were impressive!

 

[J1C1111]

Weenie question: would that be snow as far south as ATL or confine to the Carolinas?

In my opinion it would be snow.

 

[1300m]

So far, overall, the 18z GEFS seems to be generally trending the same way as the GFS, especially with the western US energy and spacing between the eastern US trough.

 

[severestorm]

Going to be some power issues if this verifies

 

[packfan98]

Here’s the latest Euro MJO. No blue dots on the right half is a first.

 

[Stevo24]

Going to be some power issues if this verifies

View attachment 157216

Come on CAD help me out and let this be more snow than ice if it occurs.

 

[Philstorm91]

18z GFS is just one Arctic blast after another unloading into the whole CONUS. Just unreal!

 

[Jessy89]

The problem with the GFS. Not likely to verify but hypothetically speaking. Temps that cold after an ice storm would be catastrophic. At least after Helene temps was comfortable. No power with extreme cold yikes!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

Also a good chance (I think) that the cold is not really going to be that extreme.

And what gives you that scenario?

 

[Gulf Coast Weather]

That cold is just beyond cold. Highs in the mid teens with lows below 0 I don't think I've seen before myself. I'd be curious to see any similar events to this and the patterns before them to see if we line up.

January 1985, December 1989, and December 1983 were legendary arctic outbreaks from my childhood that I was beginning to think may not happen again in my lifetime. The forecast models obviously weren't as sophisticated back then but it would be interesting to see what the models were showing in the 8-14 day range leading up to those historic arctic outbreaks.