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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

The problem on the EC AI is the system doesn’t dig (pac to fast) so it kinda is a wave that meanders above us with at best front end slop. We need some sort of trend that makes the wave dig further south and hav more stream separation. With the momentum surge added to the pac jet, idk if that’s gonna happen
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, only ~10% of the 18z GEFS suite shows >1" of snow during the first week of January over central NC. Those probabilities nearly triple in just the 4 following days (Jan 8,9,10, & 11)
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I'm not seeing the tripling. There's pretty obviously two (weak) basically equal signals in the GEFS currently, one in the 1/3 to 1/6 range and another 1/7 to 1/10ish.
gfs-ensemble-all-KRDU-indiv_snow_24-5236000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-6294400.png
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-6618400.png
 
Just as a follow up, on the 18z GEFS actually the only time the 24-hr probability of >1" of snowfall over central NC exceeds even 10% is once on 1/4 into 1/5 and again on 1/8. Both periods hold some potential.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr_ge_1-1735236000-1736002800-1736618400-40-1.gif
Disclaimer: analyzing the GEFS at this range in this manner seems like pure lunacy to me 🤷‍♂️.
 
1300m said:
I'm not seeing the tripling. There's pretty obviously two (weak) basically equal signals in the GEFS currently, one in the 1/3 to 1/6 range and another 1/7 to 1/10ish.
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You should take a look at the spatial probabilities... The proportional jump after about Jan 6th is a lot larger outside of Raleigh & the northern coastal plain. The signal is a lot larger for something beyond the first week of January (the general point I've been making today).


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_ge_1-1735236000-1736208000-1736618400-10.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
You should take a look at the spatial probabilities... The proportional jump after about Jan 6th is a lot larger outside of Raleigh & the northern coastal plain. The signal is a lot larger for something beyond the first week of January (the general point I've been making today).


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But you're looking at total snowfall. When you look at the 24-hour probabilities like I posted above, there's really no increased signal over the southeast IMO.
 
1300m said:
But you're looking at total snowfall. When you look at the 24-hour probabilities like I posted above, there's really no increased signal over the southeast IMO.
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Yeah, 24 hour probabilities don't increase because timing differences get washed out between ensemble members, but over larger multi-day periods, it's pretty clear that the signal gets bigger later on down the road.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, 24 hour probabilities don't increase because timing differences get washed out between ensemble members, but over larger multi-day periods, it's pretty clear that the signal gets bigger later on down the road.
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Agree to disagree.
Business Yes GIF by Client Liaison
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, 24 hour probabilities don't increase because timing differences get washed out between ensemble members, but over larger multi-day periods, it's pretty clear that the signal gets bigger later on down the road.
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gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_96hr_inch-6272800.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_96hr_inch-6618400.png

1/3 to 1/7 compared to 1/7 to 1/11. There's no washing out over timing differences. The signal is almost identical over Central NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS even more strongly supports the idea that we'll have to wait just a wee bit longer for our best opportunities.

Not much of anything until we get til past about Jan 6-7 or so.


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Lol. Now you've brought in other regions and other modeling suites. You were specifically referencing the 18z GEFS tripling probabilities of > 1" snowfall over Central NC from 1/8 to 1/11.
 
1300m said:
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1/3 to 1/7 compared to 1/7 to 1/11. There's no washing out over timing differences. The signal is almost identical over Central NC.
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That's still an apples-oranges comparison though. There's not a 1:1 relationship between ensemble mean snowfall and probabilities of snowfall because large outliers can skew a mean. This is just common sense...
 
1300m said:
Lol. Now you've brought in other regions and other modeling suites. You were specifically referencing the 18z GEFS tripling probabilities of > 1" snowfall over Central NC from 1/8 to 1/11.
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The 1" total probs jump from 10 to 30% over RDU on this map between Jan 7 & 11 & you just showed a map of mean snowfall between 2 dates, which is obviously not the same thing at all because of outliers.

Anyways... moving on.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_ge_1-1735236000-1736208000-1736618400-10.gif
 
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