January 8th at 00z (the end of the first week of January) is at 20%. It ends at 30%. Anyways, you and I both know how ridiculous this is to be analyzing GEFS like this.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I guess the point I was trying to make here was that the pattern in general probably will be more supportive for something as we get a little deeper into early-mid January & the models (for what they are worth) are already beginning to hint at that. The EPS is a better example than the GEFS obviously because it keeps the trough at the beginning of the month more tightly wound up/progressive, favoring drier NW flow.
The hilarious thing is I agree with you. We both know a receding -NAO is statistically when RDU is most likely to see a big snowfall. But right now, there just isn't much signal either way IMO. If a few things adjusted, I still hold out we could pop a low. Is it likely to happen? Absolutely not. Later is definitely more likely, but it's beyond opportunity #1 and not only that, what happens with the first trough will influence the second one, so I just don't put much focus on it yet...but that time will come (hopefully).
Snowman63
Member
Meaningless argument- you Carolina peeps are going to get blanked in the snow department anyway. lol
It's a great professional conversation. Let it go. Part of what we're here for, right?
Avalanche
Member
This is just like the Mike Maze and Greg Fishel days
whatalife
Moderator
Yes. However, in the past this has digressed very quickly. Call it PTSD for me, if you will. Nothing wrong with the back-and-forth as long as it does not get personal. Both are very solid posters on this forum and their content is greatly appreciated.
Triplephase93
Member
Tennessee special incoming.
Agreed. I know and appreciate that sometimes it requires the thankless adult job of sitting down on the floor cross-legged with all the toddlers to keep things fair and in order.
griteater
Member
Euro AI with another heavy -NAO run, here days 6 to 14
Stormsfury
Member
Fortunately, this isn't nowhere near the level of WxRisk/Meteotrade back in the day on Wright Weather. I've thoroughly enjoyed the debate with 1300m and Webb
I think the the threats after the first week of January are more likely to occur but it’s impossible to know the outcome for sure! That’s what makes weather so exciting. The pac jet being biased to extend more has thrown a major wrench in forecast this winter. Even days ago the Jan. 3rd to 6th threat looked better than it does now due to pac jet extension being stronger than modeled. But I think with patience this could be an exciting period. Webb nailed the idea down weeks ago on the macro level, just have to see how the finer details play out over next couple weeks! 1300m is also an excellent knowledgeable mind to have on this forum. Without debate and difference of opinion the world would be boring, keeping things civil during disagreement can bring knowledge to less educated posters like me!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wonder if we trend to less -EPO but that might encourage the -NAO to stick around, given the -EPO favors a +NAMT event which would eventually extend the Atlantic jet and completely nukes the -NAO. likely why the AIFS keeps it goingEuro AI with another heavy -NAO run, here days 6 to 14
griteater
Member
Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended both hold similar looks for each week from Jan 3-10 to Jan 15-22. Pretty unusual to see that consistency from these products with respect to both holding the look that long and with them being that similar. The magnitude of the anomalies weaken out in time with it being a long-range ensemble of members.
Those forecasts look like a blend of Dec-Mar from 69-70, 80-81, and 85-86. Chilly, but dry (not surprising). I'll take the chilly part though if we can get it and work on the dry part later.
Those forecasts look like a blend of Dec-Mar from 69-70, 80-81, and 85-86. Chilly, but dry (not surprising). I'll take the chilly part though if we can get it and work on the dry part later.
griteater
Member
I'd be all for the power -NAO between the 2 options assuming a TPV appendage is trapped...would help with more storminess and farther south storm track
Yeah it’s Jan. We don’t need the entire kitchen sink thrown, at least up here. That AIFS solution is good enough with the -NAO dominating and a semblance of a western ridge. The TPV moves close enough for some of the colder air aloft to be thrown into Canada so imo it’s a higher end solution. Been a while since we’ve had a functioning -NAO blocking with good consequences aka an actual 50/50 low coupled to it with a suppressive height field all the way to the EC itself and not just the more western SE. Jan 2021 came close a couple instances with that -NAO but just to warm because the entire NA got flushed out prior to it
griteater
Member
Impressive image for cold. At least for now, it looks like the GEFS has halted the eastward progression of the +PNA pattern, there way out at Jan 9th on the trend loop
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended both hold similar looks for each week from Jan 3-10 to Jan 15-22. Pretty unusual to see that consistency from these products with respect to both holding the look that long and with them being that similar. The magnitude of the anomalies weaken out in time with it being a long-range ensemble of members.
Those forecasts look like a blend of Dec-Mar from 69-70, 80-81, and 85-86. Chilly, but dry (not surprising). I'll take the chilly part though if we can get it and work on the dry part later.
@SD would approve of 1980-81
Carolina Jones
Member
Plenty of time for things to change but it's possible it won't get out of the 40s here between 1/2 and 1/9.
Less jet extension on the GEFS so far, allowing a slightly further west longwave trough over the EC. wonder how that impacts the system moving into the PNW 
