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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Twister said:
Wasn't we really looking at the 7th Beyond for something to develop anyway? I didn't think we were ever looking at something before then
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We are really only looking for events in that sweet can kicker range. This way we get all the excitement of snow without actually having to shovel any of it!
 
Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

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No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

View attachment 156877
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I was thinking KDH or Duck would be the place to be myself.
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
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Those are 850 mb temps and -10C is quite cold for us at that level (see the anomalies below). And then you have to remember that is the 200 hr ensemble mean - that is an average of 51 ensemble members at 200 hours out.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_anom_stream-5992000.png
Look at the spread in surface min temps for that time frame and just beyond below - you can see a big spread so to have -10C already showing is quite impressive at H85 and an indicator that the incoming early January air mass could be truly frigid. Doesn't mean it will be, but it's a signal of the potential.
ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-tmin_tmax_boxplot-5257600.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

View attachment 156877
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Lake Hartwell in SC produced a lake effect snow even in Jan of ‘96 I believe! Was the first and last time I’ve heard of it there. Low temps were in the 0-10 above range during that cold snap!!
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
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Euro suite never drives in a huge high and for the most part they are breezy through the whole duration of the cold, that would likely keep us from realizing what would otherwise be a floor in the single digits to low 10s
 
SD said:
Euro suite never drives in a huge high and for the most part they are breezy through the whole duration of the cold, that would likely keep us from realizing what would otherwise be a floor in the single digits to low 10s
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It's been good while since I've seen single digits here. I wanna say about 10 years.
 
Chazwin said:
Pretty sure you had single digits in January 2018. I think pretty much the whole state did away from the immediate coast
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EWebb has it covered with a low temp map. Thinking we had single digits in 2014 & 2015 as well

But looking ahead, me thinks there will be plenty of twists and turns over the next few weeks. Maybe for the better / maybe not

B1184631-0A92-473A-B960-A881A571B0EB.png
 
griteater said:
EWebb has it covered with a low temp map. Thinking we had single digits in 2014 & 2015 as well

But looking ahead, me thinks there will be plenty of twists and turns over the next few weeks. Maybe for the better / maybe not

View attachment 156885
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Wow! That is similar to jan 1985… a once in a lifetime event and everyone seems to have forgotten !
 
LickWx said:
Wow! That is similar to jan 1985… a once in a lifetime event and everyone seems to have forgotten !
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It should be noted that it was aided east of US-1 by a pretty decent snowpack that was put down by that coastal storm. You can see the areas that had the heaviest totals were in the northeast part of the state where lows dropped to 5-8 degrees below zero
 
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