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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Tampa snow mean continues to tick up lol. 8/50 members with accumulating snow now including one 4" monster.

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griteater said:
Trend on last 3 runs of Euro Ensemble Mean 5-Day average for Jan 5 to Jan 10. Pacific / North American pattern edging west. Blocks over Greenland and north of AK strengthening. Low anomaly under the block in the Eastern U.S. stretching out (not as suffocating).

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Geez...I almost don't want to post or even look at these runs as afraid I will jinx it.

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Once again this morning I'll post that I hope everyone appreciates just how cold some of these runs are. Eps mean takes highs below 50 here on 1/1 including a 6 day run of highs in the 30s. Looking at the mean that regime would continue for a few more days after the end of the run.
 
In my 20 plus years of model watching I don't think I've ever seen runs like these. Even if it doesn't verify exactly as shown the fact that the models are even showing this is historic in its own right. After the devastating flooding I experienced this year it wouldn't surprise me one bit If this a record breaker winter around here in the Mountains. FYI I work for a general contractor as a operator but we do offer plumbing.....Just saying 😂
 
SD said:
Once again this morning I'll post that I hope everyone appreciates just how cold some of these runs are. Eps mean takes highs below 50 here on 1/1 including a 6 day run of highs in the 30s. Looking at the mean that regime would continue for a few more days after the end of the run.
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I was just looking at both the GEFS and EPS for BHM and starting Tuesday 1/7 the highest high is 40 degrees for the next week. Truly is hard to believe we won’t see some precipitation at least once to go with the cold. Even in our more harsh cold snaps in history, it’s usually 2-3 days max. A week long of that is just hard to fathom, and it also likely goes on, I can only see out to 1/13.
 
LukeBarrette said:

Anyone else catch this…
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I've been working up your way in Radford. I'll be there for the next two months. I think that area is sitting pretty. Either way I'm sure I'll see snow. And it won't surprise me one bit for storms to sneak up on us under 200hrs. Especially if the pattern coming up verifies.
 
Loving the 88 comparisons. The only storm in my lifetime that we got dumped on with snow and sleet for days and didn't get above freezing for 5 days after. No power for nearly 2 weeks and no school! Honestly the first time since then that I've seen a similar set up. Long ways to go and a pile of changes will happen. Looking forward to it!
 
SNOWMANN said:
I've been working up your way in Radford. I'll be there for the next two months. I think that area is sitting pretty. Either way I'm sure I'll see snow. And it won't surprise me one bit for storms to sneak up on us under 200hrs. Especially if the pattern coming up verifies.
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Radford is a nice spot, enjoy the snow because you’ll get a little with any clipper that comes to the area.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Radford is a nice spot, enjoy the snow because you’ll get a little with any clipper that comes to the area.
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I was there up until the 23rd and it snowed on us that morning. All the models showed a slight chance of a changeover the evening before but it never did. So it was a nice little surprise when I woke up and looked at the radar. Sorry mods I know this is banter. Move if necessary.
 
We aren’t going to know much about the day 11 storm until we get some clarity on the preceding storm. Models are still all over the place with it. It seems like a weaker first storm leaves more room for the 2nd, but cold air isn’t as ideal. Euro is the best of both worlds with a strong first storm laying down the cold, but still cranks up the next wave for a board wide mega hit.

Also, if the first storm is weaker/flatter we can score from it too. So it’s hard to know what to root for. Still lots of hits with the first storm on the ensembles plus the Canadian.
 
Multiple gyres get wrapped into the established TPV that lead to the 00z euro solution. It has steadily been progressing westward with the trough axis during the period. This is still WAY out there in modeling and is still prone to major oscillations due to the complexity and evolution presented.

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That fact is also quite evident in the EPS - despite the control run having a massive 15" hit at RDU, the vast majority of individual members were actually much less enthused. Pretty clear sign this is far from settled.

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rburrel2 said:
We aren’t going to know much about the day 11 storm until we get some clarity on the preceding storm. Models are still all over the place with it. It seems like a weaker first storm leaves more room for the 2nd, but cold air isn’t as ideal. Euro is the best of both worlds with a strong first storm laying down the cold, but still cranks up the next wave for a board wide mega hit.

Also, if the first storm is weaker/flatter we can score from it too. So it’s hard to know what to root for. Still lots of hits with the first storm on the ensembles plus the Canadian.
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Amp the first system to the moon slow roll it through SE canada into the 50/50 region pump the -nao back into the davis strait region and cook with the 2nd and 3rd wave. Easy peasy
 
1300m said:
Multiple gyres get wrapped into the established TPV that lead to the 00z euro solution. It has steadily been progressing westward with the trough axis during the period. This is still WAY out there in modeling and is still prone to major oscillations due to the complexity and evolution presented.

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That fact is also quite evident in the EPS - despite the control run having a massive 15" hit at RDU, the vast majority of individual members were actually much less enthused. Pretty clear sign this is far from settled.

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My understanding is that ECMWF made the old control run the new operational run with their latest updates (which is kind of funny in its own right as it used to get bashed a lot) - so I don’t know what that means on these charts. Where it says control on the chart, maybe that is the op run now?
 
As it stands now, the 06z gefs gets me below normal at 850mb at hr66 and stays at or below normal through the end of the run with no signs of letting up.

There is a brief period of close to normal with the first storm front around day 8.

Curious if we can an hr0-384 wall to wall below normal 850mb mean here in a couple days. If so, it’ll be the first time I’ve ever witnessed that.(I don’t think we’ve even ever had a stretch as long as what’s being shown now, tbh)
 
SD said:
Amp the first system to the moon slow roll it through SE canada into the 50/50 region pump the -nao back into the davis strait region and cook with the 2nd and 3rd wave. Easy peasy
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I think for the main system we are interested in around 1/8-1/9 I am keeping an eye on that additional piece of TPV dropping southward. In the past, these have destroyed potential patterns but in this situation, I don't think that will happen. I do think it could help suppress the height field over the CONUS if it slides further east, or it could lead to a more inland solution if it goes the other way.

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All of the waves are important, but that and the main energy's strength and location are the two I'm most focused on for now.
 
griteater said:
My understanding is that ECMWF made the old control run the new operational run with their latest updates (which is kind of funny in its own right as it used to get bashed a lot) - so I don’t know what that means on these charts. Where it says control on the chart, maybe that is the op run now?
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I believe the EPS is run at a lower resolution than the op, so it may just be a lower resolution run of the op sharing the same physics and other cores. Or, it may just be the op - I'm honestly not sure myself.

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Already hearing this will be just extreme cold but not much snow east of the mountains. I know a lot of variables in place. Your thoughts this morning everyone?
 
coldfront22 said:
Already hearing this will be just extreme cold but not much snow east of the mountains. I know a lot of variables in place. Your thoughts this morning everyone?
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With all due respect ton of thoughts have been shared overnight and this morning. I'd recommend going back over the last few pages, great discussion in there.
 
coldfront22 said:
Already hearing this will be just extreme cold but not much snow east of the mountains. I know a lot of variables in place. Your thoughts this morning everyone?
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Pattern is loaded with likely the most potential for significant cold and wintry weather seen in many years. Don't consider anything a legitimate threat until it's less than 5 days away.
 
ghost1 said:
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A little CFS fantasy glory for my Carolina/Georgia peeps (2 wks out)
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I think 2 week fantasy model runs, especially the CFS, are better suited for the banter thread. Don't mean to call you out on it but just using this as an example of how we will moderate going forward, I'll leave this for that reason. Thanks for understanding
 
1300m said:
I believe the EPS is run at a lower resolution than the op, so it may just be a lower resolution run of the op sharing the same physics and other cores.
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Yeah that’s the way I always understood it - control was same as op, but run at a lower resolution. But we no longer have the separate Euro control run on Weatherbell, and there’s this note from Philippe

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Looking at the pivotal period at and around day ten, the GFS with its more eastward placement of the deep trough in response to the PNA ridge placement and axis is at odds with ALL ensemble guidance. Note the PNA ridge axis depicted just offshore as shown by the epic EMCF 00Z run is in general agreement with all of the ensembles. It's notable as well that the ensembles also have ridging stronger into Alaska and the NW territories and into the polar regions than the GFS OP does too.

The first two frames are the operational runs next Tuesday evening. Then the shown are the ensembles.


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griteater said:
Yeah that’s the way I always understood it - control was same as op, but run at a lower resolution. But we no longer have the separate Euro control run on Weatherbell, and there’s this note from Philippe

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So is it essentially so that the regular Euro Op is now effectively the control run upon which all of the ensemble members are based?
 
Rain Cold said:
So is it essentially so that the regular Euro Op is now effectively the control run upon which all of the ensemble members are based?
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It appears this is the case. That leads to my other question, which is are the EPS members now run at the same resolution as the op? I'll confess to having not noticed this before, but in the WxBell charts it actually does say they are both ran at 0.1 degree now.
 
Metwannabe said:
I think 2 week fantasy model runs, especially the CFS, are better suited for the banter thread. Don't mean to call you out on it but just using this as an example of how we will moderate going forward, I'll leave this for that reason. Thanks for understanding
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Ok sorry, no problem. Going forward, What are the rules for posting info from model runs? One week out max?
 
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