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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

1300m said:
It appears this is the case. That leads to my other question, which is are the EPS members now run at the same resolution as the op? I'll confess to having not noticed this before, but in the WxBell charts it actually does say they are both ran at 0.1 degree now.
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idk i get that this is a field that advances rapidly, moore's law etc, but that seems like an insane amount of computational power needed
 
Rain Cold said:
So is it essentially so that the regular Euro Op is now effectively the control run upon which all of the ensemble members are based?
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1300m said:
It appears this is the case. That leads to my other question, which is are the EPS members now run at the same resolution as the op? I'll confess to having not noticed this before, but in the WxBell charts it actually does say they are both ran at 0.1 degree now.
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I scanned thru this...

Newsletter from ECMWF: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/82024/81616-newsletter-no-181-autumn-2024.pdf

Cycle 48r1 is the previous Euro upgrade. Cycle 49r1 is the most recent upgrade

"...Cycle 48r1 increased the horizontal resolution of ENS from TCo639 to TCo1279. One consequence of this upgrade was to make the unperturbed ENS control forecast scientifically equivalent (though not computationally identical) to the high-resolution deterministic forecast (HRES). Although nearly identical, HRES and the ENS control forecast retained some differences in lead time (10 days vs 15 days), output frequencies, and dissemination times. In Cycle 49r1, HRES and the ENS control forecast become scientifically and computationally identical and both are run for 15 days at 00 UTC and 12 UTC. The superfluous ENS control forecast will be stopped in a future IFS upgrade, and the data stream currently known as HRES will become known as the ‘control’ forecast. The retitled control forecast will be available on the same schedule as the current HRES (i.e. earlier than the perturbed ENS forecast members)."
 
griteater said:
I scanned thru this...

Newsletter from ECMWF: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/82024/81616-newsletter-no-181-autumn-2024.pdf

Cycle 48r1 is the previous Euro upgrade. Cycle 49r1 is the most recent upgrade

"...Cycle 48r1 increased the horizontal resolution of ENS from TCo639 to TCo1279. One consequence of this upgrade was to make the unperturbed ENS control forecast scientifically equivalent (though not computationally identical) to the high-resolution deterministic forecast (HRES). Although nearly identical, HRES and the ENS control forecast retained some differences in lead time (10 days vs 15 days), output frequencies, and dissemination times. In Cycle 49r1, HRES and the ENS control forecast become scientifically and computationally identical and both are run for 15 days at 00 UTC and 12 UTC. The superfluous ENS control forecast will be stopped in a future IFS upgrade, and the data stream currently known as HRES will become known as the ‘control’ forecast. The retitled control forecast will be available on the same schedule as the current HRES (i.e. earlier than the perturbed ENS forecast members)."
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one thing it doesn't say- is the control the only "hi res" ensemble member with everything run at a lower resolution?
 
As much excitement as this pattern can bring… it’s best to hamper expectations this far out.

Realistically we’re about a week away from any said storm appearing. That’s A TON of time for small things to be tweaked and for the rug to be pulled for many. Every system effects the one behind it and even the tiny clipper this Thursday will have ramifications on the weekend system and any system there after.

With many pieces of energy flying around there will be many upon many different solution outcomes. This could mean cold and dry with a few flurries to potentially the biggest snowstorm you’ve seen in your life.

But both those scenarios have equal chances of happening for any one persons backyard at this stage.

Be excited to track but don’t expect you’re going to see a monster snowstorm or else you could fall victim to post fantasy storm depression.
 
BullCityWx said:
I think that we’ve now seen three big dogs in 24 hours from three completely different evolutions.

That’s exciting. We may have a longer runway than we usually have used in the past.
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All eyes (or at least my eyes) are on how long we can keep the high latitude blocking going. The Pacific side "should" be able to maintain itself for the most part (-EPO / +PNA) with the going trends this winter and MJO in favorable phases as long as we don't see a big negative or positive EAsia Mtn Torq event show up. But if the high latitude blocking can hold, that will increase our timing window

Not running fast here:

Dec 29 Euro MJO.png
 
ILMRoss said:
one thing it doesn't say- is the control the only "hi res" ensemble member with everything run at a lower resolution?
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You would think that they'd have a "Southeast U.S Winter Weather Weenie" section at the beginning of the newsletter to cut to the chase and give us the important info like what you've asked here
 
ILMRoss said:
View attachment 157406

the icon says: do not sleep on jan 3-4. still time to pull a nuisance event together
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Yeah I've been saying all along the 1/3 to 1/6 window is the first window to watch. Still some signal there for at least a light event. Hopefully something with a little more clout than the ICON/CMC suites start to trend this way 🤣.

dd25e299-1dc3-4b11-af5f-2937b9d0008c.gif
 
1300m said:
Yeah I've been saying all along the 1/3 to 1/6 window is the first window to watch. Still some signal there for at least a light event. Hopefully something with a little more clout than the ICON/CMC suites start to trend this way 🤣.

View attachment 157410
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like i feel like this is a classic scenario of an event that comes back after the CAMs sharpen things up a little bit and show a little more lift. early dec clipper was like that
 
ILMRoss said:
like i feel like this is a classic scenario of an event that comes back after the CAMs sharpen things up a little bit and show a little more lift. early dec clipper was like that
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Absolutely, which is why I stayed on that one when (almost) everyone else had given up haha.
 
If I’m not mistaken I think 2014 had the back to back winter storms and extreme cold sandwiched in there with it. That’s the vibe I’m getting here with this window we’re headed towards.

Plus that was in February so we will be working with much better climo here.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If I’m not mistaken I think 2014 had the back to back winter storms and extreme cold sandwiched in there with it. That’s the vibe I’m getting here with this window we’re headed towards.

Plus that was in February so we will be working with much better climo here.
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Late Jan 2014/Mid Feb 2014. Those were fun because that was my first winter in Raleigh and first systems I had real skin in the game with.

1.28.2014 had some of the funniest clown maps I've seen in my life (24-36 inches in wilmington). that stalled out boundary gave a lot of people ice and select fringes on the northern side a nice bump of pixie dust

mid Feb 2014- everyone remembers that storm but I know what you're talking about, raleigh snowmaggedon on glenwood... the cold was locked in place. i remember the short term models were locking in on pre-events... and it was an open question leading up to the main storm what day raleigh would get the bulk of it's snow. that may be the most turbulent lead up to a snowfall I've ever had. my suitemates were asking me when we would get snow and I had to say fellas... I have no flippin idea lol
 
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Really curious to see how this first system trends. Will it be an amped mess or something else?
 
As I was saying earlier, if that northern piece of TPV energy dropping south could come in more quickly, it would suppress the central CONUS height field and this would have been an even more major winter storm. Slowly been trending southward on most guidance as it is.
gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-1735473600-1736024400-1736024400-40.gif
gfs-deterministic-namer-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-1735473600-1736089200-1736089200-40.gif
 
main takeaway- jan 6 more and more looks like storm #1

a lot of gametime left. i speculate that the energy landfalling into the western us will trend weaker- i feel like we've seen many day 6-10 monster cyclones from the gfs in recent years that moderate as we enter the medium range
 
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