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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

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this is just a wild look


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ILMRoss said:
want to say- if you are a hobbyist that's a little less experienced tracking these, and you're wondering why everyone is clamoring over these events the GFS is showing that are very far south but also very light... the issue is timing and luck, lining up different up pieces of energy to create a bigger storm. this run so far hasn't been very lucky in that department. to be clear this is a loaded pattern and i expect the ensembles to show some crazy solutions.
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I think for people like me, you’re absolutely right. We’re almost always checking for the Eminem storm - we’ve only got one chance and we can’t miss it. Not this go around.

Canadian ensembles were already fairly enthused last night:

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Webberweather53 said:
I’d like to see the first big storm on the 5th-6th cut towards the Lakes or interior, set the edge of the glacier and then we shove the baroclinic zone south for the 2nd & 3rd systems
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Yes. And this is what really set the stage for what the Euro did last night. Pushed that arctic boundary down hard where it's snowing heavily while in the teens in the deep south.
 
wow said:
Well the primary will cut but there's that chance it miller B's its way east and delays the bomb. We need the bomb to set the ground for 1/8
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I don't understand all the definitives being spoken about a system that is still halfway outside of model truncation. 12z CMC doesn't cut any part of the system.
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1300m said:
I don't understand all the definitives being spoken about a system that is still halfway outside of model truncation. 12z CMC doesn't cut any part of the system.
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Good luck to the CMC! But yes even an outlier like this at this range is possible. But that may be at the expense of the 1/8-9 wave. We're all model gazing... hard to look away from the shiny things.
 
wow said:
Good luck to the CMC! But yes even an outlier like this at this range is possible. But that may be at the expense of the 1/8-9 wave. We're all model gazing... hard to look away from the shiny things.
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There’s really no point in looking beyond the 1/6 system because everything else evolves based on what happens to it.
 
wow said:
Try telling that to everyone here :D

Yes 1/6 could certainly be the overlooked event where we stand now.
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I’m guilty too - honestly trying to ground myself. We’ve all been here staring at historic patterns that take multiple steps to fully develop and never do so just trying to remind myself to take it one wave at a time.
 
Since 1/6 didn't bomb over the lakes, the center of the PV has ended up way further east and too far to influence the 1/8 wave, leaving it to wander off to take at vacation to the Baja.

The best thing here at this point is while the models are still jumping all over, they are still making something happen, or at least very close to it.
 
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