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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

griteater said:
What you seeing over there SD?

Some improvement shown on the EPS, last 3 runs for Jan 7 - pattern bumping west and improved Arctic Oscillation

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The developing trough/low near japan bothers me. I think we are seeing the beginning of the retrograding pattern and that low is the end game but before hand I worry that creates enough momentum within the pac jet that it either nudges the overall aleutian low E or we get a wave train from Japan to the aleutians to the north American west coast that we lose the big amplitude of the ridge.

I do agree that the eps today so far has been a positive trend in that department
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I still think the pattern overall screams more clipper craziness than anything .. which, don’t get me wrong, can do some wild things outside of the usual clipper locations. Just think that’s generally where we are at the first week of January. Certainly room for things to time up right for something better and more widespread .. I’m just not seeing it as of right now
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I 100% agree but you never know until you start tracking a system under 120. Especially as blocking gets better, weird things can happen.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I still think the pattern overall screams more clipper craziness than anything .. which, don’t get me wrong, can do some wild things outside of the usual clipper locations. Just think that’s generally where we are at the first week of January. Certainly room for things to time up right for something better and more widespread .. I’m just not seeing it as of right now
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That's one heck of a growing snow mean on the ensembles for simple (even multiple) clipper action
 
SD said:
The developing trough/low near japan bothers me. I think we are seeing the beginning of the retrograding pattern and that low is the end game but before hand I worry that creates enough momentum within the pac jet that it either nudges the overall aleutian low E or we get a wave train from Japan to the aleutians to the north American west coast that we lose the big amplitude of the ridge.

I do agree that the eps today so far has been a positive trend in that department
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Gotcha. Given the going trend of too much Pac Jet (El Nino like) so far this winter, I’m going to have to see it to believe it when it comes to a big retrograde west. I’m gonna ride the persistence idea thru at least end of January. All on the table though
 
griteater said:
EPS bumping west and really cold (Jan 9)

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That’s getting to within the general time frame where I think our ceiling would be higher for any potential storm that manages to come along.

If we can get the mean trough axis anomaly there to back up a little to be centered over roughly the TN Valley, with more of a west-based -NAO (pretty minor pattern changes), we are really cooking.

Getting closer to the more coveted Miller A coastal cyclone pattern as we enter the 2nd week of January.
IMG_4106.png
 
tractor girl said:
I'll happily take 06, 08, 12, and 16 please. We are so overdue, both us and SC, for a decent widespread snow event. We got a tiny whiff in winter 21, but nothing since.
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Upstate SC south of I-85 has not had any snow since January 2022.
tractor girl said:
I'll happily take 06, 08, 12, and 16 please. We are so overdue, both us and SC, for a decent widespread snow event. We got a tiny whiff in winter 21, but nothing since.
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