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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

My opinion this is an Ohio valley/ mid Atlantic sloppy mess winter storm. The 6th system that is. It’s always a step down process in the winter time. That’s how these things usually lay out.

That means an icy mess for NC and the Tennessee region.

The next storm would have a better shot at doing something further south. But again each storm effects the next so don’t get your hopes up on back to back big winter storms. It may end up just being some quick hitting snow down south .
 
iGRXY said:
The low wouldn’t be in Kentucky if this was realistic for one
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looking at the upper air maps, yeah it's about right but that's assuming that is correct. it's all model gazing. Personally I'd rather have this one bomb over the OH valley and press that arctic boundary down to the gulf coast. Step down. That would set up a heck of an overrunning event.
 
lexxnchloe said:
To me, lows well NW of us arent realistic for anything other than the mountains for a few hours of ice. This to me is a setup much more likely to produce

View attachment 157554
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It depends on how much cold air is dammed up east of the mountains in the foothills and piedmont and upstate. You can have an icy mess east of the mountains with a low moving west of the Apps
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
My opinion this is an Ohio valley/ mid Atlantic sloppy mess winter storm. The 6th system that is. It’s always a step down process in the winter time. That’s how these things usually lay out.

That means an icy mess for NC and the Tennessee region.

The next storm would have a better shot at doing something further south. But again each storm effects the next so don’t get your hopes up on back to back big winter storms. It may end up just being some quick hitting snow down south .
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Agreed. A Miller B/CAD event with the core of the snow to our north from the first system (& some potential for ice or snow), followed by a Miller A/coastal cyclone with a bigger threat for big dog snow, seems like the most plausible scenario if we’re going to see wintry weather here.

The pattern definitely suggests that too with split stream flow initially evolving progressively to a west-based -NAO/+PNA

These patterns are usually a step down process & I prefer it to be that way here tbh.

*Build the wall* (of snow) to our north first, then we can eat as much as we want
 
griteater said:
It depends on how much cold air is dammed up east of the mountains in the foothills and piedmont and upstate. You can have an icy mess east of the mountains with a low moving west of the Apps
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Yes, but you also need a rather strong low redeveloping off the NC coast to lock in cold air at the surface in central NC to produce ice and sleet while warm air floods north aloft from the KY low. There is no low off NC, or its so weak it doesnt matter.
 
jrips27 said:
Wave 2 doesn’t really sharpen this time. Another possibility.View attachment 157546
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A bit crazy to bring up Wilkesborodude's rule about the skies having to heal, but there's some truth to it. It's difficult (tho not impossible) to ask the atmosphere to produce one storm, then bring another one of significance right behind it as there has to be some level of return flow / warm advection to generate precipitation for storm 2
 
griteater said:
A bit crazy to bring up Wilkesborodude's rule about the skies having to heal, but there's some truth to it. It's difficult (tho not impossible) to ask the atmosphere to produce one storm, then bring another one of significance right behind it as there has to be some level of return flow / warm advection to generate precipitation for storm 2
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We've seen models in the past show multiple threats, which then they finally key in on one that becomes the main threat that produces. In fact, more times than not, the one that does produce is much different than what was first advertised. As you and others have stated the important take away is the pattern is ripe and to me, when models start showing multiple threats it confirms the pattern recognition. I don't for a second get excited about multiple winter storms, very seldom does that happen. The details will emerge soon enough
 
lexxnchloe said:
Yes, but you also need a rather strong low redeveloping off the NC coast to lock in cold air at the surface in central NC to produce ice and sleet while warm air floods north aloft from the KY low. There is no low off NC, or its so weak it doesnt matter.
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This storm, December 21-22, 1983, produced 12 straight hours of light freezing rain in Charlotte with temperatures 29-32 degrees yielding a significant build-up of ice. I lived it. I saw it with my own eyes. The surface low tracked into Western Lake Superior

fI7FMwC.gif
 
griteater said:
This storm, December 21-22, 1983, produced 12 straight hours of light freezing rain in Charlotte with temperatures 29-32 degrees yielding a significant build-up of ice. I lived it. I saw it with my own eyes. The surface low tracked into Western Lake Superior

fI7FMwC.gif
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Probably gonna have to watch for these types of setups when the jet starts to retract later in jan, especially if we have a deep snowpack nearby
 
Metwannabe said:
We've seen models in the past show multiple threats, which then they finally key in on one that becomes the main threat that produces. In fact, more times than not, the one that does produce is much different than what was first advertised. As you and others have stated the important take away is the pattern is ripe and to me, when models start showing multiple threats it confirms the pattern recognition. I don't for a second get excited about multiple winter storms, very seldom does that happen. The details will emerge soon enough
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Yeah I think everything is on the table. This really is a good-looking setup as long as the blocking holds. We have what appears to be a good punch of cold air moving in underneath the high latitude blocking. It's the perfect time of winter in January. We don't have an El Nino like feed of southern stream waves running from California to Texas - but that brings its own set of issues temperature-wise, especially this day and age.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro continues to trend favorably for the first storm. Looks like this run would have had a colder feed due to a slower departing SE can vortex. Probably a stronger damming event if it continued View attachment 157561
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Just looking at that I would think the wave is destined to be squashed in to nothing. Not ripping a strengthening surface low towards the Great Lakes. I think we’re gonna see models continue to trend weaker and more south like the Canadian. Just my two cents
 
rburrel2 said:
Just looking at that I would think the wave is destined to be squashed in to nothing. Not ripping a strengthening surface low towards the Great Lakes. I think we’re gonna see models continue to trend weaker and more south like the Canadian. Just my two cents
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That is OK if it weakens to be a colder overrunning event that lays down a few inches as an appetizer for what is next
 
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