packfan98
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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packfan98
Moderator
Interesting. Not just one crazy member putting a number on the board.
Interesting….
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18Z GEFS snow mean has dropped below 1" for me. Now likely a miss through 360 hours. Good luck NC peeps!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Real question is how many members are changing to something happening or close to that?
packfan98
Moderator
I went back and looked at 12z and it only had 2 members showing anything in that time period.
lexxnchloe
Member
In that case the low was so far west it enabled the strong high to pump down low level cold. A low in KY means the high wont be as strong as it needs to be here.This storm, December 21-22, 1983, produced 12 straight hours of light freezing rain in Charlotte with temperatures 29-32 degrees yielding a significant build-up of ice. I lived it. I saw it with my own eyes. The surface low tracked into Western Lake Superior
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Jan 3-4 system’s signal (still unsurprisingly to me) does not hold a candle to what comes down the pipe right after it
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like that ridge north of the TPV pushing that vortex further south over SE Canada
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Some nice features to mid-month anyway. Strong low anomaly off New England. Still showing some ridging in the western U.S. there so the overall pattern hasn’t retrograded at all. Love the blues extending from France to Kansas City. Very much a -AO look with suppressed storm track
No way. You’re not already out before the pattern starts are ya?
The plot thickens as I just noticed (well, remembered) the 12z CMC Ens also trending the same way.... Is the EPS trending towards the CMC Ens? That would really be something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A warning shot clipper, followed by a CAD storm & a big cold shot, & then an amped coastal cyclone is the “right” way to run a winter pattern & the kind of stuff the best winters around here are made of.
We get the full buffet of wintry weather
We get the full buffet of wintry weather
vsublazer
Member
Great breakdown of the trend from Peachtree City.
lexxnchloe
Member
Here is the set-up now. A 1026 high in a differnt position as opposed to a 1048 high. Of course, if it trends further south and east that will be great.
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NCSNOW
Member
Thats exactly how jan 2000 happened. 2 mixers, crusher, 5 inch snowstorm. All within 10 days
Forevertothee
Member
GSP Long-term mentions next weekend as wintry mix potential across its forecast area.
"LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday: A series of weak systems will move through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the latter part of the week, with
some light snow showers possible late week in the mountains.
Otherwise, the trend will be slightly cooler each day with
temperatures below normal across the entire area by the weekend.
Another system may impact the area next Sunday with a wintry mix of
precipitation."
"LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday: A series of weak systems will move through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the latter part of the week, with
some light snow showers possible late week in the mountains.
Otherwise, the trend will be slightly cooler each day with
temperatures below normal across the entire area by the weekend.
Another system may impact the area next Sunday with a wintry mix of
precipitation."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mhmm this exact evolution did happen in Jan 2000.
First, we had a clipper type system embedded in NW flow on the Jan 17-18th.
Followed up by a CAD event/ice storm on the 23rd.
Then, the big dog showed up on the 24th-25th after a clipper system & miller B/CAD event.
Tarheelwx
Member
I believe there was one after the crusher. I had to fly into Roanoke rather than GSo to get home from Bozeman. I believe it was on a Saturday evening and was a snow to mix in the triad.
TW
TW
Yes, another good snow in Feb 2000. I remember because my Grandmother had passed away, I was stationed in Okinawa and flew home. Couldn’t fly out for 5-7 days past scheduled time to go back due to this!
That ice event on the 23rd actually started out as a snowfall for the SC upstate, and southern NC foothills and Piedmont on the afternoon and evening of the 22nd. CLT metro had several inches, I had 3 inches at my house off NC 200 in Cabarrus County. In fact there was a 747 that slid off the runway at KCLT when it was trying to take off in heavy snow that evening. Then a few days after the Crusher of course there was big ice storm on Super Bowl Sunday… I remember that because my power went off right as Kevin Dyson caught that pass from Steve McNair and dove for the goal line. I had to scramble to turn on a radio to find out he was stopped a yard short.
Fountainguy97
Member
Not sure I remember the last time I've seen Ensembles look like this...
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Yeah we had at least four inches that day in Western Gaston
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
WOW ! I've never seen that many with that much snow for north central alabama
A mean like that this far out is amazing. And I would say 23 of those panels are good to big hits for here.
Me neither. What is so amazing is how many members have MBY getting at least something and then you have the members like 05 which bring the house down.
Yeah, for the western parts of the CLT metro and the southern Foothills, the snowfall on the 22nd is was a much bigger deal than the Crusher was two days later, as there was such a sharp cutoff once you got north and west of I-85.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One thing that has always stuck out to me historically about these big dog coastal cyclone snow threats sorted by ENSO phase, even dating back into the late 19th century:
Miller type A winter storms which occur in the cold phase of ENSO (cool neutral or La Niña conditions) are usually much kinder to RDU folks. Oth, big coastal cyclone cases in El Niño winters seem more likely to produce big snowfall gradients between the Triangle & the Triad areas. All things considered, this is likely because the subtropical jet juices these systems up just a little too much, shoving the rain/snow line &/or heaviest snows further to the NW.
These are just some examples of this (sorry for all the images)
Miller type A winter storms which occur in the cold phase of ENSO (cool neutral or La Niña conditions) are usually much kinder to RDU folks. Oth, big coastal cyclone cases in El Niño winters seem more likely to produce big snowfall gradients between the Triangle & the Triad areas. All things considered, this is likely because the subtropical jet juices these systems up just a little too much, shoving the rain/snow line &/or heaviest snows further to the NW.
These are just some examples of this (sorry for all the images)
The other thing that the storms in Niña or Neutral years also have in common is that sharp cutoff on the western side.
Branch
Member
Dang wish there was a Georgia poster as thorough as this with past storms for Atl area. ‘92 on the southside of atl was a perfect I-20 storm. Hoping for one more.
You’ve never seen an inch and a half of snow?WOW ! I've never seen that many with that much snow for north central alabama
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, the cut off is often very sharp on the western side as well. Areas back towards Charlotte & the SW Piedmont of NC in your neck of the woods rarely do all that well compared to others w/ big coastal storms. Dec 2010 imo is the single example that best sums up how the snow distribution tends to shape out w/ Miller type A cases.
Bullseye over US HWY 1 to I-95 corridor (RDU & points just east), with another, arguably more prominent area of higher snowfall over the NW Piedmont into the mountains.
For the SW Piedmont of NC & upstate SC (Charlotte + Greenville-Spartanburg area roughly) to get "bullseyed", you usually need to see an overrunning event (e.g. Jan 1988), a CAD that's cold/deep enough s.t. you can snow a lot into it via warm advection before changing to IP/ZR (e.g. Feb 2014), or an upper level low. Some historic events like Feb 1969 & Feb 2004 have more than 1 of these present.
Source Region? 
J1C1111
Member
Yeah, Spot on. I got 10 inches out of that one in the southern foothills on that Saturday before the crusher a few days later that I got a few flurries from that morning but missed it by miles to the east from Cleveland county over. Still hurts to this day watching it snow on the radar just a few miles down the road but that Saturday a few days before was a very memorable snow storm I remember very well sledding all day Saturday and Sunday.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This one below has probably been my favorite of all time. I was living right under that 16 mark in McDowell county. Had drifts 3 feet deep in our back yard and it completely froze up for days after that. The best sledding I’ve ever experienced.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The classic El Niño winter Miller type A snow event w/ a rather large snowfall gradient between Raleigh & the Triad + foothills.