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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Nice little hit on the CMC, but a reminder that the analog dates have been cold, but dry....so that is a possible fail mode with the trough being too far east / too sharply oriented. But we're close to what we need pattern wise if we aren't going to have a west to east, low latitude southern stream

Here are the temperature and precipitation probabilities from the CPC analog dates

dBZ3Q8y.gif


NkSBNur.gif
 
griteater said:
Nice little hit on the CMC, but a reminder that the analog dates have been cold, but dry....so that is a possible fail mode with the trough being too far east / too sharply oriented. But we're close to what we need pattern wise if we aren't going to have a west to east, low latitude southern stream

Here are the temperature and precipitation probabilities from the CPC analog dates

dBZ3Q8y.gif


NkSBNur.gif
Click to expand...
something i'm thinking about too. i have noticed fantasyland GFS does two things i don't really like:

- pinches energy off into baja
-energy can't 'turn the corner' and it never gets the tilt we need

like, i get it. my eyes are looking at what should be a historic pattern. the -nao is insane. the runs are loaded with potential. but i'm perturbed there aren't more fantasyland hits at this point.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
just a lil bit different than the GFS 💀 View attachment 157624
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s a massive difference. UKMET has the Atlantic trough way west and a weaker wave for our storm. The UKMET looks far more like the icon. The CMC is the weakest with the wave. Technically the GFS is an outlier esp with the SE can vortex, perhaps the progressive bias. unless the euro changes that here shortly IMG_2754.gif
 
Takeaways from the models tonight from my POV:

1: There is a legit storm to track January 6-7 time frame. All models seem to have it about the same time.

2: We have absolutely no clue who is getting in on the action. Could be more Ohio valley upper south .. maybe if the 3-5th clipper is stronger than usual the main storm digs further south and we end up with a southern slider type of deal. Maybe it dives so far south it gets pulled around the coast as a monster nor’easter. Truth is we have absolutely no clue and we shouldn’t be expecting anything at this point for our own backyards.

3: one way or another I don’t see how we don’t end up with mixed precipitation. You may get a storm but more than likely we’re going to see areas of ice and sleet and snow with this system. All another headache to have to tackle that can throw a wrench in things.

4: it’s going to get cold! And stay cold for a while. There’s a decent shot a lot of January ends up cold and at least favorable to see some wintry threats so don’t get too caught up or discouraged if you miss out on 1,2, or 3 events. It happens 🤷🏽‍♂️. The blessing is that even though you may miss out there’s still all of February left and even early March to make some magic happen.

My opinion: I still favor an Ohio valley and upper south scenario with system #1 (January 7-8). Just makes the most sense at this point as I think the Thursday/Friday clipper won’t be that strong and there for gradient of cold is further north than what the Canadian is showing for example (I could be wrong! That’s okay).

Added note: we can’t even think about anything after the 6/7 system because that system will impact what the pattern looks like after that point. No use in squabbling over anything after this current storm threat until we get a much clearer picture of what the 6/7 system looks like.
 
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