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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

6z gfs and 0z euro looked fine to me. Better part of 2 weeks with BN temps, 1 day warm up ahead of a system that taps the deeper polar/arctic cold, a shot at a memorable event when the trough starts to max out, cold trough starts to relax with systems moving in towards the end of both runs. Yeah that's how we typically do it around here
 
I think we are living and dying too much based on each model run. We have the two ingredients right at our fingertips. Plenty of cold air and plenty of energy flying around. This is the type of pattern that can have a storm signal show up just within a few days of it happening. Stressing about 10 days out is just bad on our health. We have the best chance we’ve had in years, it can happen any time really from the 8th-15th
 
Think of this blocking pattern like Mahomes, we’re always going to have a shot as long as it’s around. If you’re skeptical and you’re tired of yellow tag people yelling at you to calm down after bad runs I get it but nothing is changing just because the appetizer is trending a little more amped
 
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06z GEFS temps with a solid week of well below normal temps and the EPS temps are even better.

Then you have the 00z EPS snow chart that is still looking more solid then anything we have seen over the last several winters. I see no need to panic yet. 41/50 showing accumulating snowfall.
 
The CFS still has the Jan 6th storm. It would be a monster storm. Three day miller B storm that would drop all types of precip.

over 20" showing across norther NC, but this calculates ice as snow. Still would be something.

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After this it continues threats for most on the board. Pattern wise, it look great.
 
ILMRoss said:
Think of this blocking pattern like Mahomes, we’re always going to have a shot as long as it’s around. If you’re skeptical and you’re tired of yellow tag people yelling at you to calm down after bad runs I get it but nothing is changing just because the appetizer is trending a little more amped
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I think this week is going to be a rough one one here with ups and downs. Not concerned about the 1st system at all. I've always agreed with Webber after the 7th or so is when the chances increase. But we're at the point this week where we see if it was all just a mirage because by Friday we'll be getting that window inside 7 days where there is some skill in the ops. I really hope that period doesn't fade away or we'll need therapists on this board
 
Parker said:
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06z GEFS temps with a solid week of well below normal temps and the EPS temps are even better.

Then you have the 00z EPS snow chart that is still looking more solid then anything we have seen over the last several winters. I see no need to panic yet. 41/50 showing accumulating snowfall.
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Can you give me a muscle shoals? please
 
Looking at the euro, for wave #2 it comes down to not hanging it back over the SW. The 12/29 0z was our picture perfect run where the PV was strong enough to keep it moving around the lobe while in process of phasing which really amped it up, yet still an overrunning event with the arctic boundary so far south.


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rburrel2 said:
Don’t laugh, but the navgem has our first storm as a picture perfect snow/ice setup. Odds are this storm stays too far north, but there’s still a small chance it winds up as a main event. Ukmet/cmc/navy support that, not my favorite combo… but who knows? View attachment 157664
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The Spire also brought Storm Wave 1 across at a low latitude and has some snow, then sends Storm Wave 2 positive tilt into Baja / Northern Mexico

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wow said:
Looking at the euro, for wave #2 it comes down to not hanging it back over the SW. The 12/29 0z was our picture perfect run where the PV was strong enough to keep it moving around the lobe while in process of phasing which really amped it up, yet still an overrunning event with the arctic boundary so far south.


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Thing that I notice most is the trend of weakening the west coast ridge. A tall west coast ridge is our ticket to making the southern solutions come to pass. I do not like this trend at all...... We need to spike that ridge and straddle the coast.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Thing that I notice most is the trend of weakening the west coast ridge. A tall west coast ridge is our ticket to making the southern solutions come to pass. I do not like this trend at all...... We need to spike that ridge and straddle the coast.
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The trend this winter so far has been for these features to end up further east than forecast it seems so we do have that going for us. For a short time, it seemed we were going too far east with the PNA ridge. I think it'll come back.
 
packfan98 said:
Needs a little more cold air.
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If this were last year, NC wouldn't have anything on the map and it would be TN and other mid south areas only. Don't get me wrong this is better for TN as depicted, but I think it will change and produce more for you and other areas left out last year.
 
At least it's a good start to the 12z model runs. ICON can score a coop every once in a while but I'll feel much better if GFS and Euro trend better. I still think we're in good shape over the next 2 weeks, just take a little patience for the details to reveal themselves.
 
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Metwannabe said:
At least it's a good start to the 12z model runs. ICON can score a coop every once in a while but I'll feel much better if GFS and Euro trend better, I still think we're in good shape over the next 2 weeks, just take a little patience for the details to reveal themselves.
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This right here. Goes along with what Webb said earlier about how a threat will materialize should a good pattern stay in place. While everyone remembers tracking the “big dogs” for a long time, we were more tracking a pattern with some good model runs thrown in.

Heck, most of the big snow storms I can remember either had major issues in the midrange or popped up out of no where three or four days out.
 
The biggest issue I see with the ICON run for east of the Appalachians south of Virginia and northern N. Carolina is a lack of a damming HP to the northeast and worse, a surface high east of Florida with a return flow into the SE.
 
SnowedIn1 said:
Does the ICON have a warm bias compared to other models?
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idk if this quite answers your question but the way i see the icon is that i'm happy it is there and i'm happy when it agrees but i don't put a ton of stock into it. it's invited to the wedding but it's not a groomsman. thermals however have always seemed a bit wonky with it
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The biggest issue I see with the ICON run for east of the Appalachians south of Virginia and northern N. Carolina is a lack of a damming HP to the northeast and worse, a surface high east of Florida with a return flow into the SE.
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Yeah 1020 something high over the Bahamas with light S to SE winds is a recipe for issues
 
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