Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[Billypg70]

Pattern evolution like this is akin to the fable of the tortoise and the hare .

Most times, being slow, steady, & methodical
wins the race

Steadily build the glacier to our north & keep the pattern generally cool/stormy (through -NAO/+PNA) and the chances will eventually come

While I definitely understand the premise your describing,
Bc I've seen it multiple times throughout my life being born in 1970.
Remembering the 70's & 80's and great storms since.
Please excuse my need for having it now,
Bc I'm pushing year 3 without a dusting and I feel like crack head that is in desperate withdrawals bc it's been a week without my pipe!

 

[BullCityWx]

Sub 495 heights dipped into NC with the polar vortex. I dont know if I've ever seen a model do that.

 

[NCSNOW]

90% percentile for 1inch+ accum off the eps is as about as good as it gets in modelology world down south.

Icon , GEFS, ukmet and to a degree canadian say storm 1 has legs still.

 

[Webberweather53]

The January 1977 type comparisons to this pattern are absolutely legit.

 

[EthanLovesWeather]

Not saying Ukmet has merit or is the most reliable model for us in the south, but wow that would be a nice solution for the 5th and 6th...and it has been known to have a warm bias for storms like that if I remember correctly. Also it looks just like the icon model.

 

[CaryWx]

The January 1977 type comparisons to this pattern are absolutely legit.

January '77 while brutally cold was not favorable for snow in NC that I recall. Do remember many many frozen ponds, ditches, and some ice on the rivers. It was indeed very unheard of wall to wall cold.

 

[wow]

With that kind of block, we'll finally be able to melt enough land ice to kill the gulf stream and put us all into a deep chill.

 

[KyloG]

Poof...but it will be cold so we got that going for us.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

January '77 while brutally cold was not favorable for snow in NC that I recall. Do remember many many frozen ponds, ditches, and some ice on the rivers. It was indeed very unheard of wall to wall cold.

That is correct. I remember a couple of clippers bringing <1 inch. but that was about it. COLD and DRY was the theme.

 

[KyloG]

For as cold as 1977 was in central NC it still rained on us...

 

[Deleted member 609]

For as cold as 1977 was in central NC it still rained on us...

View attachment 157749

Frosty got a foot though. Some things never change.

 

[NCSNOW]

Here was last frame of 12z ukmet as fyi

 

[BullCityWx]

That is the UK and Icon giving some credence to a further south track. It has to give you at least a little pause.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

time to be a weenie during desperate times. CMC ens looks like the best ens run yet for the first system

 

[Billypg70]

The January 1977 type comparisons to this pattern are absolutely legit.

First thing I thought of when I saw several model runs showing the pattern and cold was 1977!
It was unrelenting that year,
Only difference this go around is it appears to be 3 weeks to a month.
Maybe memory fails me but that seemed to last for a couple of months.
As most know it was the only time that Miami reported flurries!
It's the stuff legends are made of!!!

 

[KyloG]

time to be a weenie during desperate times. CMC ens looks like the best ens run yet for the first system View attachment 157758View attachment 157756View attachment 157755View attachment 157757

Legit and we hug

 

[BHS1975]

January '77 while brutally cold was not favorable for snow in NC that I recall. Do remember many many frozen ponds, ditches, and some ice on the rivers. It was indeed very unheard of wall to wall cold.

Seems like the 1899 cold snap was better for snow.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro out to 60, looks prematurely ukmet like. See what happens

 

[Chazwin]

That is the UK and Icon giving some credence to a further south track. It has to give you at least a little pause.

The thing that gives me a little pause about it is that the UK typically seems to want to over amp things at this range and it doesn’t seem to be doing that here.

 

[Oconeexman]

At one time the Ukie was the closest thing to the euro at 5-7 days as far as verification. Not sure if it still is but on the other site years ago it was a good thing to have it and the euro on the same page

 

[EastmanGAWX]

The 1899 cold snap actually followed a January that was nothing spectacular in terms of cold and an early February that was a torch. Columbia, SC had three days in the mid/upper 70s and Savannah, GA hit 81 in the week immediately preceding the legendary arctic intrusion.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is stuck lol go figure

 

[griteater]

The CMC beats the GFS pretty much every winter, so no need to discount it

 

[ForsythSnow]

Euro is stuck lol go figure

They totally manually stopped it to remove the south snow, must be a sign!

It's most likely just high traffic given this setup, I'm sure a lot more people are accessing it given what could be coming. Hopefully this will be a good run and not go off the rails like the GFS did.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah. I'd gladly take my chances w/ that look.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[jrips27]

Run to run change on the Euro at 174

 

[jrips27]

Still cutting. Just quicker

 

[RBR71]

Still cutting. Just quicker View attachment 157767

Those front end flurries would still be more than I've seen in 3 yrs. I'll take whatever I can get

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Still cutting. Just quicker View attachment 157767

I’m not mad, let’s see what comes down the pipe after that


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[SD]

Euro coming out broken is fun. The fact it has snow accumulating snow in Lake Charles and Port Arthur is interesting

 

[Webberweather53]

Definitely not exactly the same, but certainly some similarities between this year & 1977, especially over N America.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Definitely not exactly the same, but certainly some similarities between this year & 1977, especially over N America.


View attachment 157768
View attachment 157769

Yep the ridge up top, and -NAO looks similar, Pacific not quite a match but closer than I thought, even still not a bad analog though


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[SD]

Euro coming out broken is fun. The fact it has snow accumulating snow in Lake Charles and Port Arthur is interesting

Gets strung out. Perfect

 

[Webberweather53]

The Euro tries to give me snow in New Mexico w/ the latter system.

Lol good luck w/ that buddy. I'll believe it when I see it.

Hard enough to get a legit arctic front to either push across the various mountain ranges around here or to get any measurable precipitation in winter. It's another thing entirely to have a legit snowstorm.

We haven't seen a 4"+ snow event in nearly a decade down this way (Dec 2015).

 

[Mitch West]

The Euro is a great run. The energy is still there after this coming weekend. It's just not showing up as the beautiful runs we all want to see (unless you live in Texas). There is even more energy loading up at the end of the run.

 

[wow]

The Euro tries to give me snow in New Mexico w/ the latter system.

Lol good luck w/ that buddy. I'll believe it when I see it.

Hard enough to get a legit arctic front to either push across the various mountain ranges around here or to get any measurable precipitation in winter. It's another thing entirely to have a legit snowstorm.

We haven't seen a 4"+ snow event in nearly a decade down this way (Dec 2015).

I don't have wxbell but I assume it's dropping the wave far into the SW, holding back, and stringing it out. Just gotta kick the whole ball of wax out. So many storms seem to hinge on things like this...

 

[KyloG]

What a beauty of a GOA ridge on the Euro..that usually helps

 

[KyloG]

Poof...wen spring

 

[jrips27]

I don't have wxbell but I assume it's dropping the wave far into the SW, holding back, and stringing it out. Just gotta kick the whole ball of wax out. So many storms seem to hinge on things like this...