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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

So close.. just gotta get that wave east. Nearly 10 days out? I'll take it.

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BIG FROSTY said:
How cold is the Euro? Not seen any maps like was shown with the GFS ? So assuming it’s much different/warmer? I’m on the road hard to look up the run.


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Looked similar to 0z lots of 20s and 30s for highs for most of the state and lows single digits to mid 10s
 
Webberweather53 said:
I still can't get over the fact that the freezing line is consistently hovering over the Gulf Coast & northern Florida.
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Baroclinic zone along the Gulf with a Baja low that could move east along with shortwaves diving into the trough… it’s really asking for a powder keg if all goes right. Pattern is ripe for it.


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We've got a good modeled background pattern coming up and the ingredients are on the table. If it comes to fruition, it will be the best pattern we've had in years.

It's easy to forget how much patience is required with this hobby, particularly when it doesn't seem that we've even hardly been in the game for several years.

Hopefully, we'll remain in a favorable state for a few weeks and maximize our chances during peak cold climo. All of these models are going to go back and forth. Maybe they'll pick up on and lock onto a specific threat soon. I think that would help us all -- tracking an actual threat instead of a potential good pattern.
 
Rain Cold said:
We've got a good modeled background pattern coming up and the ingredients are on the table. If it comes to fruition, it will be the best pattern we've had in years.

It's easy to forget how much patience is required with this hobby, particularly when it doesn't seem that we've even hardly been in the game for several years.

Hopefully, we'll remain in a favorable state for a few weeks and maximize our chances during peak cold climo. All of these models are going to go back and forth. Maybe they'll pick up on and lock onto a specific threat soon. I think that would help us all -- tracking an actual threat instead of a potential good pattern.
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We've had plenty of threats show up on the models. We just can't get them to show up inside 10 days.
 
Carolina Jones said:
We've had plenty of threats show up on the models. We just can't get them to show up inside 10 days.
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I would not really call anything D10+ a threat. I'd actually probably not consider it a threat until it shows up within 4-7 days consistently.

Also, we haven't had many fantasy storms of late either.
 
Carolina Jones said:
We've had plenty of threats show up on the models. We just can't get them to show up inside 10 days.
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It seems like that's the difference today in the EPS and the reduction in snow mean....Euro suite is now tucking the energy in the SW, which happens like....all the stinkin time. Before with the good runs it was likely not and we got weenie runs, and a large mean. Now it's a mixed bag I bet. Bummer if I'm being weenie honest.

Overall foundational elements are still sound though. What happens, what energy interacts with the cold I think is still completely unknown IMO. Earliest and least likely threat is still 7 days away. We are talking way out there where anything can happen. Surprises are still lurking, probably both good and bad. Let's just get frigid and I bet something will pop.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would not really call anything D10+ a threat. I'd actually probably not consider it a threat until it shows up within 4-7 days consistently.

Also, we haven't had many fantasy storms of late either.
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Wasn't the complaint just a couple of weeks ago around here that the models didn't have fantasy storms anymore? It's hard to keep up with how fast the complaining goal posts move
 
Can see the EPS for 1/9-10 had a nice consistency but now has backed off, which makes sense. Let's see if it trends back the other way tomorrow.

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SD said:
Wasn't the complaint just a couple of weeks ago around here that the models didn't have fantasy storms anymore? It's hard to keep up with how fast the complaining goal posts move
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I look at it this way: If you are getting fantasy storms to frequently show up on the models, it kinda sorta means you are looking down the barrel of a favorable or quasi-favorable pattern. I like to see it.

I was just pointing out to Brick that while we may see snow in the LR, it isn't really a threat, at least in my mind.

But you are not wrong in what you said.
 
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