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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

The trend that has stood out to me the most over the past 24 hours in some of the modeling is more runs where the wave for storm 1 is entering the west coast at a lower latitude - seen here on the GFS. That's one of the hallmarks of a strengthening -AO.....storm track shifted south

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The pattern clearly supports a further south solution for the 1/6-1/7 window, if the ICON or 00Z UKMET solutions verify. IMO the UKMET was going to be a wintry event for TN/NC. If the large vortex trapped under the block can extend far enough west to suppress the height field between it and the incoming wave, a southern wintry event is on tap. If not, it's going to cut. Still up for debate, and while I fully believe the ICON is a bad model, I would not outright dismiss the UKMET.
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griteater said:
The trend that has stood out to me the most over the past 24 hours in some of the modeling is more runs where the wave for storm 1 is entering the west coast at a lower latitude - seen here on the GFS. That's one of the hallmarks of a strengthening -AO.....storm track shifted south

lx4VKiN.gif
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Trend continues on the 12z GEFS.
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iGRXY said:
View attachment 157719CAD areas get some action. Couple of shifts further south and a touch more cold press and we're looking at something much bigger.
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I don't love this setup. It could work of course with the very amplified split flow pattern, but there are some other ingredients (like a good low-level cold source & strong surface high over top of a fresh, deep snow pack) that aren't present here in the kind of quantities we usually need to get big storms outside the mountains. If we had the same look but a decent snow pack beforehand, I'd feel a lot better.
 
griteater said:
The trend that has stood out to me the most over the past 24 hours in some of the modeling is more runs where the wave for storm 1 is entering the west coast at a lower latitude - seen here on the GFS. That's one of the hallmarks of a strengthening -AO.....storm track shifted south

lx4VKiN.gif
Click to expand...
The -AO can be a good thing if it's not too extreme like it was a couple years ago. We only had very cold and dry conditions as a result so I'm not rooting for anything extreme. The current projection does take it low but not as extreme as it was in 2022.
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LittleMountain said:
Last few model runs have been moderating the extreme cold east of the Apps or at bare minimum kicking the can down the road. I agree with others that the snowpack to the north can be helpful but when you’re snow-hungry, it can be hard to wait.

We did this a couple times last year too (albeit without the great model runs we had the last few days). Where models were calling for extreme cold only for it to never manifest.

Just hoping we don’t settle for warm/wet and then a few days later cold/dry.
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Not a popular take but you are correct about last year. There were a couple of times last year, and one significant example (don't remember the exact time frame) where all the major models agreed on a significant pattern change to much colder, and many were thinking it was too strong evidence to be wrong. But as we got closer all the models backed off and it never happened. They didn't show the fantasy storms they've been showing this week but the major cold was widely shown. We've seen this head fake many times in recent years. Not saying this will happen this time, but it may, and people would do well to prepare themselves for just that.
 
My New Years resolution is to see a cut off in the Baha, spitting out weak shots of energy into a split stream....with cold air in place, constantly reinforced... and blocking. How do I make that happen??? Any one Beuller? It makes winter joyous when that happens. One's melting and here comes another to reset it. And if it's with a lot of sleet mixed in there's a lot of It left. Rinse and repeat. A hundred year pattern can happen at anytime...I keep telling myself that, and have for 60 years, lol. I may not get to see an ice age, but this lot is doable. According to Larry there were times in the late 1800's when things were really rocking...so it's in the ball park for a 100 year pattern.
 
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