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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

NickyBGuarantee said:
I must point out as well… the CMC ensembles do NOT support its operational run. But does support an Ohio valley and upper south winter storm threat to start for 6/7.

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A good example why ensembles are way more important than operationals. The operational runs are just a single output (like one of those many ensemble runs we see posted in here)
 
ILMRoss said:
something i'm thinking about too. i have noticed fantasyland GFS does two things i don't really like:

- pinches energy off into baja
-energy can't 'turn the corner' and it never gets the tilt we need

like, i get it. my eyes are looking at what should be a historic pattern. the -nao is insane. the runs are loaded with potential. but i'm perturbed there aren't more fantasyland hits at this point.
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Yeah the ridge off Oregon is rolling over / breaking anti-cyclonically on some of the modeling and sending some waviness due south along the west coast where the waves are getting squashed. The Euro here does get a gulf low going with some snow in South Texas and along the Carolina coast

We need the overall trough to be a little more west, or even better, have it spread out more west to east from Utah to the W Atlantic instead of from Kansas to the W Atlantic. That would give the waves a little more room to amplify and turn the corner. It's a fine though....too far west, and storms will cut if not timed well of course.

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For the newbies, this is to be expected. Rarely even in the good ole days did you get wall to wall great runs with fantasy snow until go time. There’s always a wrench thrown in there. Good news is the pattern still looks good. I will still stand that while we could very well get a cutter on wave 1, the big -NAO tells me that heights should be more suppressed than what is being modeled on the GFS and now the euro. As far as the additional waves, we need to cut that pinching off of energy due south into the Baja region ASAP.
 
Those crazy means on the EPS aren’t really crazy anymore. But I wouldn’t freak out. Maybe this post is cope. I don’t think so. But The takeaway
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The first storm is trending unfavorably on the EPS, the mean is going down. Still could come back but it’s not typical for the first storm in general headed into a pattern change to produce. IMG_2766.gif
The second storm is actually trending more southeast on the EPS and not as amped, but there was a way better QPF response then 12z this run, meaning more then likely more members with hits but not as many big dogs. It was overall still a good run for this potential. Only would start getting worried if this trend accompanied suppressionIMG_2765.gifIMG_2764.pngIMG_2770.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Those crazy means on the EPS aren’t really crazy anymore. But I wouldn’t freak out. Maybe this post is cope. I don’t think so. But The takeaway
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The first storm is trending unfavorably on the EPS, the mean is going down. Still could come back but it’s not typical for the first storm in general headed into a pattern change to produce. View attachment 157640
The second storm is actually trending more southeast on the EPS and not as amped, but there was a way better QPF response then 12z this run, meaning more then likely more members with hits but not as many big dogs. It was overall still a good run for this potential. Only would start getting worried if this trend accompanied suppressionView attachment 157641View attachment 157642View attachment 157645
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Yeah Fro, It won't take a lot of work to get some snow going on storm 2, and we have 10 days for adjustments, lol

Pretty remarkable to have this level of agreement from the big 3 ensembles for the 8-13 day average pattern

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Here is the Pac Jet comparison for the GEFS and EPS on Day 11

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Wave 1 around 6-7 produced some onset ice in the CAD regions and we managed to get a secondary low to form on the front this run. Results is even more rainfall lol. Good news is the -NAO trended quite a bit stronger and we also decided to drop the entire TPV on the eastern 2/3rds with a 492 sitting right on Lake Superior and we did get a nice sharp wave on 1/10-1/11. It’s sitting around Tampa so you’d like to see that about 50-100 miles further north and west. Again just an Op run so it doesn’t matter this far out.
 
The core of the first storm largely stays up to the north on most ensembles, as is typical for patterns like this when we’re “stepping down” into something better.

More times than not, we incrementally lay snow cover down further to the south, with the southern edge of the snow pack often helping to set the general the baroclinic zone

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While this isn’t the most popular take, most models do in fact cut this first storm west of the Apps & even into the lower Great Lakes.

Again, this kind of solution generally seems reasonable just given the “stepping down” process (as @NickyBGuarantee alluded to) we’re doing here as we set the table for this cold/snowy pattern.

I’d much rather do it this way than immediately jump in with a suppressed storm right off the bat that leaves areas to our north completely barren.

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Webberweather53 said:
While this isn’t the most popular take, most models do in fact cut this first storm west of the Apps & even into the lower Great Lakes.

Again, this kind of solution generally seems reasonable just given the “stepping down” process (as @NickyBGuarantee alluded to) we’re doing here as we set the table for this cold/snowy pattern.

I’d much rather do it this way than immediately jump in with a suppressed storm right off the bat that leaves areas to our north completely barren.

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Lay down the snow pack. Lets connect the dots to the bigger prize a few to several days after.
 
Webberweather53 said:
While this isn’t the most popular take, most models do in fact cut this first storm west of the Apps & even into the lower Great Lakes.

Again, this kind of solution generally seems reasonable just given the “stepping down” process (as @NickyBGuarantee alluded to) we’re doing here as we set the table for this cold/snowy pattern.

I’d much rather do it this way than immediately jump in with a suppressed storm right off the bat that leaves areas to our north completely barren.

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Pattern evolution like this is akin to the fable of the tortoise 🐢 and the hare 🐰.

Most times, being slow, steady, & methodical
wins the race 🐢

Steadily build the glacier to our north & keep the pattern generally cool/stormy (through -NAO/+PNA) and the chances will eventually come
 
Webberweather53 said:
Pattern evolution like this is akin to the fable of the tortoise 🐢 and the hare 🐰.

Most times, being slow, steady, & methodical
wins the race 🐢

Steadily build the glacier to our north & keep the pattern generally cool/stormy (through -NAO/+PNA) and the chances will eventually come
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I always feel like Feb 2014 is a great example of this.
 
GEFS is hung up at 147 but it’s holding to the OP with a stronger S/W out of the west, stronger -NAO and 50/50 with higher heights out ahead on the east coast.
 
Last few model runs have been moderating the extreme cold east of the Apps or at bare minimum kicking the can down the road. I agree with others that the snowpack to the north can be helpful but when you’re snow-hungry, it can be hard to wait.

We did this a couple times last year too (albeit without the great model runs we had the last few days). Where models were calling for extreme cold only for it to never manifest.

Just hoping we don’t settle for warm/wet and then a few days later cold/dry.
 
LittleMountain said:
Last few model runs have been moderating the extreme cold east of the Apps or at bare minimum kicking the can down the road. I agree with others that the snowpack to the north can be helpful but when you’re snow-hungry, it can be hard to wait.

We did this a couple times last year too (albeit without the great model runs we had the last few days). Where models were calling for extreme cold only for it to never manifest.

Just hoping we don’t settle for warm/wet and then a few days later cold/dry.
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It’s not moderating, you’re just losing a couple of days on the front end due to the first wave cutting. There’s also about 8 days + out so thinking you were going to get consecutive runs of highs in the teens especially without snowpack just isn’t realistic
 
iGRXY said:
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It’s not moderating, you’re just losing a couple of days on the front end due to the first wave cutting. There’s also about 8 days + out so thinking you were going to get consecutive runs of highs in the teens especially without snowpack just isn’t realistic
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Thanks for posting KFQD. Thats my county.
 
JB is getting is concerned with the EPO Going positive which will flood the US with Pacific air,and the cold is not going to last long. and probably not going to have that extreme cold. "If the models is right with that EPO" because there's a flip happening in Europe also. which teleconnects to a flip in the east..
So here we may be going again..... He's just not sure about it yet, but may see big backing off at 12z today the beginning of the end, before it ever starts, lol. But it was an interesting video last night to say the least.
 
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