Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[griteater]

Improvement with the NAO on last 4 runs of CMC for Jan 5

 

[griteater]

Another tick of improvement with the AO and NAO on the GEFS for Jan 4

 

[griteater]

Clear AO/NAO improvement shown with CMC Ensemble as well for Jan 4

 

[Arcc]

I kind of like how this GFS run is dumping the trough farther west. Marry that with the CMC and Euro ideas and we're in good shape

View attachment 156996

And that is how we get another 12/08/17.

 

[griteater]

And that is how we get another 12/08/17.

Yep, looks a lot like that one

 

[Billypg70]

Only clipper I ever remember delivering anything for the upstate was Jan 96, right after the Blizzard. Gave nearly 4 new inches of puff to my back yard.

I agree they have been few & far between imby also!
Maybe a few,
My memory is failing me in my older age!
I think it has more to do with how close you are to the mountains!
If you're further away,
Then you may have a better chance but in my case I can literally see the Blue ridge mountains imby!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wtf !!!

 

[griteater]

Yeah mega cold blast on the Euro run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol

 

[John1122]

The CPC analogs were double weighted 1985 and 1961. Both those featured multiple days below 0 here with some -10s in 1961 and of course -27 imby in 1985.

So I can see why the Euro is playing that extreme tune.

 

[griteater]

GEFS for Jan 7. More -NAO, deeper eastern trough

 

[jrips27]

Think that’s the coldest Euro run I’ve ever seen.

1pm afternoon January 10th temps

Atlanta - 6 degrees
Birmingham - 7 degrees

 

[griteater]

The CPC analogs were double weighted 1985 and 1961. Both those featured multiple days below 0 here with some -10s in 1961 and of course -27 imby in 1985.

So I can see why the Euro is playing that extreme tune.

Temperature probabilities from the CPC Day 8-14 analogs

 

[griteater]

Snow dropping south on the GEFS 48hr snow product on SV

 

[jrips27]

Man what a run. Didn’t even realize this much snow fell 1/8-1/9. No wonder it takes us into the freezer

 

[iGRXY]

Multiple days with highs in the teens on that run lol.

 

[griteater]

Man what a run. Didn’t even realize this much snow fell 1/8-1/9. No wonder it takes us into the freezer
View attachment 157006

Yeah I missed that too. All these model runs are jumbled up together now timing wise.

Update on GEFS snow showing up

 

[iGRXY]

EPS still likes that 1/6-1/8 timeframe

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow an incredible run from the euro. Euro fantasy land is more fun than GFS fantasy land lol..

These were the type of Arctic outbreaks people in here along with me have been talking about. This is possible in a pattern like this. My temperature in southern Illinois got down to -15 and wind chills at -40 … assume record shattering but I’d have to look..

This type of cold is hard to move so I’d assume several winter events can work with this

 

[iGRXY]

Congrats to the I10 Corridor lol