Stormlover
Member
Euro keeps getting colder 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BillyMurrayWx
Member
The upcoming pattern doesn’t look good for the interior southeast for winter weather with that much cold air coming down. Regardless, the cold is going to be brutal for a few days especially for folks that have to work outside like powerwashers and landscapers.
WPC looks like they’re not buying a threat to the mid-south with Wave 1
I am buying this here every day and every week. Wow.
Pops
Member
Yeah wouldn’t take much for that to be awesome
I hope the plumbers are ready (they're not)
Brent
Member
It feels like it's harder than it should be to match up the precip with the cold anymore.
Brent
Member
It's always a risk with arctic air. The last two years we had our snow totals way reduced by it
December 1989 and January 1977 were dry other than the coastal areas
Yeah, why i don't like the very cold air. Seems we do better with snow when we're right on that line with it being cold or not cold enough.
Brent
Member
Exactly. I'm actually tired of our setups being so cold here because yeah that's probably why we haven't had a good snow in 3 years. I think it's all connected
Give me marginal temps any day
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
We’ve got roughly 200+ hours, and about 90-100 model suites to sift through before we’re close to the favorable timeframe for something to happen. I for one am trying to be patient as possible. We’ve haven’t seen a pattern like this in quite awhile. My eyes are getting sore and need relief.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Yeah I mean I know Tulsas biggest snowstorm on record came after a heat wave.... I know the biggest snowstorm in Dallas was with temps at 33-34 degrees... In Alabama it was in Mid March!
I'm noticing a trend here
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
The 2 biggest snows I've seen in Georgia were in December and March. Seems like the heart of winter is less likely to have a big snowstorm.
With big arctic shots you have to correctly time a wave -- as the cold press is inbound or outbound or temporarily oscillating around the area. The exception to this is with an active STJ, which we don't have now.
The advantage we *appear* to have is a long period of cold to very cold and also a very well-placed ridge/block in the NAO space. This can slow the flow and allow more room for amplification of a wave or more time for two waves to interact or potentially phase. It's why a properly configured -NAO is so important for us.
In many of our cold and dry arctic outbreaks, we're missing something. Care to guess what that is? If you said a properly placed, strong -NAO, you'd be correct.
We're absolutely going to see some bangers show up at some point. Just wait for it.
The advantage we *appear* to have is a long period of cold to very cold and also a very well-placed ridge/block in the NAO space. This can slow the flow and allow more room for amplification of a wave or more time for two waves to interact or potentially phase. It's why a properly configured -NAO is so important for us.
In many of our cold and dry arctic outbreaks, we're missing something. Care to guess what that is? If you said a properly placed, strong -NAO, you'd be correct.
We're absolutely going to see some bangers show up at some point. Just wait for it.
12z UKMET still holding steady. It definitely shows what needs to happen with this first storm opportunity.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Almost half of the 20 member CMC suite shows the gulf to east coast system in 10 days, a couple of members wait a day or two later and develop a system. All that being said, ingredients are there.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Yeah I will say one positive this year vs the last two winters is there's gonna be multiple windows
I mean it was so bad last winter if it didn't snow within 3 hours you were cooked for the entire event
Lot of banter in here imho. Cold and dry yada yada yada, better suited for the complaining thread.
What a nightmare to forecast lol 
SnowNiner
Member
I agree to a point. I don't ever want to be on the line. But artic outbreaks and super blocks can crush systems and we end up dry. That's a possibility here. We do best IMO when we have solid cold to our NE and we CAD with a high in NY. That's been our mechanism forever to get frozen in the piedmont, and we end up Miller B.
Always run the risk of dry with Artic outbreaks.
One thing I love about the 200-300hr range of the Euro is how much upper level moisture is pooling right at the gulf coast. It may change, but most of the time in these massive cold blasts, the gulf is scoured. Not so here.
Almost as difficult as moderating this forum.
From the cursory glance it just looks like the system adjusted north but has slowed down some. In other words the track has adjusted/set but speed/timing still in flux
All that's needed is a little more energy rotating around the western periphery of the vortex during the period below to suppress the height field some. That in tandem with the continued further south trend of entry point into the western U.S. would do the trick. The surface low would then track along the Arctic front to the south near the Gulf at that point. It's one reason I've highlighted this period all along combined with the -NAO in place.
when all of your energy is coming from the northern stream it’s tough to get that high pressure to slide in place to the east and dam up beside that 50/50 low. It’s just a jumbled up mess of energy dropping in off the northern stream.. the tough part is that’s what’s bringing the cold down but it’s also what’s making it difficult. Double edged sword. We really need something to dive in and dig not just to our west but to our south and west. (Or getting some separation between waves could work) But with what we’re seeing modeled the odds are still very high for us relative to what we’ve seen over the last several years
There's plenty of time for that to occur but seemingly it has adjusted north now?
It did trend back a little south with the last run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m trying to figure out where the cold air or surface high is coming from for a big storm because that’s obviously lacking here even in the favorable looking solutions
The AI shows 2 close misses after the first storm system in the main timeframe of interest. You have a large Winter storm just hanging off the coast line of the Gulf & Southeast.
Definitely has on the Euro and GFS. It's certainly far from a guarantee or even a likely but it's not worth giving up on at this range either IMO.
Just keeping it 
the Euro AI has been wanting to breakdown the Greenland Blocking out at range in recent runs. I bring it up because it was one of the first models to really latch on to the idea of a strong block. In addition, the Strat PV is quite strong right now. Having a long duration -AO / -NAO event is more challenging when the Strat PV is in that state
On the flip side, the Pac Jet on the AI shows no fading as it continues to pump out to Hawaii.
So maybe we go from +PNA/-AO/-NAO 2nd week in Jan to -EPO/+PNA/ Neutral AO & NAO mid-Jan. Both could offer opportunities, maybe great ones
the Euro AI has been wanting to breakdown the Greenland Blocking out at range in recent runs. I bring it up because it was one of the first models to really latch on to the idea of a strong block. In addition, the Strat PV is quite strong right now. Having a long duration -AO / -NAO event is more challenging when the Strat PV is in that stateOn the flip side, the Pac Jet on the AI shows no fading as it continues to pump out to Hawaii.
So maybe we go from +PNA/-AO/-NAO 2nd week in Jan to -EPO/+PNA/ Neutral AO & NAO mid-Jan. Both could offer opportunities, maybe great ones
Got Raleigh attention in AFD ..
"Late Sunday night though Monday a deep trough will move through the
region, bringing the next chance for precipitation. It is currently
unclear how much/if any of the precipitation will be frozen as
models differ in timing and temperatures. However, this appears to
follow a Miller B type pattern, which can be conducive to frozen p-
types in our northern counties, so a chance of freezing rain and snow
were introduced mainly from 6-12Z early Monday morning, but as
models come to better agreement this is likely to change. Any frozen
precipitation that does fall is likely to be very short lived"
"Late Sunday night though Monday a deep trough will move through the
region, bringing the next chance for precipitation. It is currently
unclear how much/if any of the precipitation will be frozen as
models differ in timing and temperatures. However, this appears to
follow a Miller B type pattern, which can be conducive to frozen p-
types in our northern counties, so a chance of freezing rain and snow
were introduced mainly from 6-12Z early Monday morning, but as
models come to better agreement this is likely to change. Any frozen
precipitation that does fall is likely to be very short lived"
Sctvman
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I agree with this last statement overall. The circulation pattern is pulling its weight here & is more than sufficient for a storm, but the low-level air mass & upstream surface high are dragging their feet.