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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Myfrotho704_ said:
at this point this is several EPS runs in a row coming in like this. I will never forgive this model if it flops. 3-4” mean for how many runs now ? View attachment 157492
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Yea, in the past we’ve had the occasional random long range 3-4 inch mean banger(then back to 1-1.5), but we never string together means like this. I’m all in at this point.
 
EPS definitely trended east with the height field regarding the 1/8-9 storm. Precip is less, so some are following the OP.

trend-epsens-2024122912-f258-qpf-024h-mean-imp-conus.gif


trend-epsens-2024122912-f258-500h-anom-mean-conus.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just give me what the CMC is selling and we can rot under a SER for the remainder of winter idcView attachment 157488
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Meh. A quick front end Tennessee and North Carolina hit of 4-6 inches with no one else getting in on the fun is great for you guys but is a big letdown for others on the board. I wasn't expecting last night's Euro to verify but if this lead storm just bombs out like it's been showing for the last several runs then you get a much bigger storm (widespread 6-12 inch totals) a few days later anyway. It doesn't even get really cold for very long with this run.
 
wow said:
Since 1/6 didn't bomb over the lakes, the center of the PV has ended up way further east and too far to influence the 1/8 wave, leaving it to wander off to take at vacation to the Baja.

The best thing here at this point is while the models are still jumping all over, they are still making something happen, or at least very close to it.
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Yes, as.long as they show the potential that's the important thing
 
My guess is despite the Euro control sending the energy to Baja. Basically taking the second storm sorta off the table. The ensembles will have a few big dogs on it.


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Arcc said:
I think while a 6 inch plus snow would be incredible, I would be more than happy with a 3” snow. My kids would be in heaven.
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Same, ARCC. Give me 1-3 any day of the week since we haven’t had more then a 1/4 inch since December of 2017. My son is 3 and daughter is 1 and I’d love to see them get to see snow at home for the first time. Let’s bring it home! Nice to see the EPS holding steady and even adding members.
 
A couple things:

Posting longer range images, maps, and pattern depictions are fine here, even the CFS and Korean. There was some confusion in the staff thread about this, which was my fault. In the past, we relegated those to Banter. But to make it easy on everybody, just post them here. @ghost1

That said, when posting that stuff, please provide context. We're not just going to sling images to increase our post counts.

Also, no more Logan Tweet-quoting, like @SD said. You can see that it easily derailed the thread. Similar things need to be kept out of this thread.

I am sorry for all of these kinds of posts over the last couple of days. We have been trying to formalize the forum framework ahead of a likely busy and exciting period.

Thanks again for helping threads to remain on-topic and for helping maintain a friendly and meaningful community.
 
I’m a simple man.

Build the edge of the glacier/snowpack incrementally to the south. Leave less holes in it to keep our air masses as fresh and strong as possible. This encourages these normally persistent -NAO patterns to feedback on itself & give us way more opportunities to reel in the big fish 🐟 down the road.

This also gives us much more wiggle room to score bigger storms multiple times, even when things are not as ideal (as they usually are even in great patterns).

In any case, the eps keeps the core of the first storm up near the Lakes for now, tho it obviously suggests some decent (CAD induced ?) snow/ice to the south near the I-40 corridor. I’d take it, esp considering we haven’t even seen that much action alone in at least 3 years.


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I remember years ago when we would chase fantasy storms and great patterns, only to have them evaporate or turn out meh.

I don't have much to add over what others have said, but I do believe it's going to be hard to get through the next few weeks without many in the SE experiencing at least one winter storm.

We're finally in the proper phases of the MJO, in a perfect climo period. We have broad ensemble agreement across every suite. And we have blocking that is holding or even looking better as we move in.

As we know, it can fall apart, or things may not align just right for a big dog. But it looks strongly like all of the ingredients will be on the table, and the proverbial window will be open as wide as it can be.

I believe there is the potential for something special to happen. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember years ago when we would chase fantasy storms and great patterns, only to have them evaporate or turn out meh.

I don't have much to add over what others have said, but I do believe it's going to be hard to get through the next few weeks without many in the SE experiencing at least one winter storm.

We're finally in the proper phases of the MJO, in a perfect climo period. We have broad ensemble agreement across every suite. And we have blocking that is holding or even looking better as we move in.

As we know, it can fall apart, or things may not align just right for a big dog. But it looks strongly like all of the ingredients will be on the table, and the proverbial window will be open as wide as it can be.

I believe there is the potential for something special to happen. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
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I think the biggest point you made is the fact that we are finally in proper MJO phases. Along with that the other indicies finally appear to be lining up right to go with it and at peak climo. Could it all fall apart? Sure. Are there any guarantees? Absolutely not. This is still the south after all. However at least it looks like we have an extended window coming up and other than January 2022, we haven’t had that in a long time
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember years ago when we would chase fantasy storms and great patterns, only to have them evaporate or turn out meh.

I don't have much to add over what others have said, but I do believe it's going to be hard to get through the next few weeks without many in the SE experiencing at least one winter storm.

We're finally in the proper phases of the MJO, in a perfect climo period. We have broad ensemble agreement across every suite. And we have blocking that is holding or even looking better as we move in.

As we know, it can fall apart, or things may not align just right for a big dog. But it looks strongly like all of the ingredients will be on the table, and the proverbial window will be open as wide as it can be.

I believe there is the potential for something special to happen. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
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Well said! For so many years we've been constantly fighting lacking conditions, either having a "decent" atlantic with a greenland ridge, but no real 50/50. OR, we had a good pacific with a +PNA and a crumby atlantic with no blocking. What seems to be happening here IMO is that we're now somehow, someway, getting both sides just right. Pacific forcing, the jet, everything seems to be lining up for a few weeks and that's the model output you get; glorious weenie runs.

Still very much on guard and I've seen uber-agreement in the ensembles fall apart before (LAST FEBUARY!!) so I'm super excited but in the back of my mind I still feel like it's not real. Hopefully as we get to the end of this week it becomes more within reasonable expectations.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I am very encouraged seeing numerous ensemble members with each run of the models giving a good look.. 1-3 at this point is good to me! So snow starved just SW of Atlanta! Anyone know where Tony (dsaur) is hiding?
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Hey, Psalm! Still here...watching models and hoping, lol. I was sure the 1st would work, but now it's the 6th and 10th, and the other day there were 4 shots at frozen, and I'd be willing to take one, as long as it's a good one :) It's about time for a deep sleet right over you and me, but snow will be ok, lol.
 
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