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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

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Doesn’t seem to be a lack of moisture for the SE US from 1/6-1/10 (00z GEFS)


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Just some thoughts.

Scoring on the front end of a transition to cold is hard in the SE it happens but it's usually the exception not the rule.

Hard to believe the gfs suite right now given its tendency to retract the PJ too quickly.

If the western ridge axis is in the rockies or inside the WC there's an apex/maxing out of the cold period that would be memorable think multiple days of highs 29-38 lows 7-15.

I like 2 periods for snow #1 when the cold trough is maxed out if we can fire a strong wave into the base. That's really more for mby and east (it's hard for the east of US1 zone to win in many other scenarios) #2 when the pattern starts to retrograde and the WAR (not SER) starts to flex.

If you believe the euro weeklies we are in the game until the last few days of the month.
 
If we're going to hit on the leading edge of this cold period in the first week of the month, it's probably going to be an overrunning or CAD type event. Even then, I still have a lot of questions...

The east-based -NAO, big Atlantic Canada trough, & stream separation occurring on many of the models is definitely strongly favoring that type of scenario over any if we see snow/ice initially at least.

I actually don't like the way the Pacific looks here next week for this type of pathway, would like there to actually be a -PNA & Aleutian ridge, but this can still work.


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This is simply my opinion, but if you start flexing the -NAO with a strong 50/50, and trap the TPV in the Hudson it’s a matter of when, not if we see see something frozen particularly across the TN valley and east of the Apps. Multiple shots tbh. Everyone loves to watch the pacific but IMO that’s a very tight gradient between glory and cold and dry across here. We don’t need to drop the whole arctic on us, just have it be to our north over southern Canada.
 
Both the eps and gefs have below normal 850mb temps from around 132hrs through the end of their runs for us. With no signs of letting up. Hard to imagine we don’t at least have a few credible threats to track in that timeframe. Even if a big dog doesn’t develop we should at least get to track some fizzling waves that could deliver flakes. It doesn’t take much to drop a few inches of snow, and that’s a banger by our standards. I expect the snow means to keep going up over the next few days as we keep adding potential on the backend, and they’re already honking.
 
rburrel2 said:
Both the eps and gefs have below normal 850mb temps from around 132hrs through the end of their runs for us. With no signs of letting up. Hard to imagine we don’t at least have a few credible threats to track in that timeframe. Even if a big dog doesn’t develop we should at least get to track some fizzling waves that could deliver flakes. It doesn’t take much to drop a few inches of snow, and that’s a banger by our standards. I expect the snow means to keep going up over the next few days as we keep adding potential on the backend, and they’re already honking.
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Yeah, the one thing we all know is first get it cold. Then we also know how bad these models are on the details. Especially with clipper type systems. If we go through a two-week period of January cold, something will materialize.

This is fantasy land (~Jan 10), but the 0z euro has this which was from a clipper. 24 hr snow totals:
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Something like this (or more) could happen. It'll probably sneak up on us.
 
SD said:
I really hope people appreciate how cold that eps run was from 1/2-10 for some areas east of the MS river especially relative to the last 25 years.
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Makes me think about January 2014 which started with a flash freeze and had that insane two week cold spell. There was pond ice everywhere.
 
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

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Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

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Me too ;). https://www.wral.com/story/ask-the-...ffect-snow-happen-in-north-carolina/21760802/
 
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