Early February 2014 is the last time I ever remember seeing this strong of a signal in the ensembles this far out.
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
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that was a great storm for my area!
What I was thinking. At least in terms for length of time for events to occur
I think before the Feb 2021 fail we saw signals like that, but unfavorable tropical forcing shifted it west
NEGaweather
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Prestige Worldwide
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Chance of near-record breaking 500mb heights is already ~30%.
Wooooooffffff
Wooooooffffff
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2018 had a really strong signal. I had a meteogram saved somewhere that shows every single ensemble member at 12+
packfan98
Moderator
That had to be with less than 48 hours before the event. What we just saw with the EPS for week two is unheard of that I can recall.
#patternloaded
Here's one of the bigger (if not the biggest) EPS runs from February 2021 after the Euro Control went ham. Nowhere near as favorable as the 12z EPS today. The GEFS was more bullish around that time, but the GEFS tends to do that...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I see people talking about 2021 but it did not look this favorable in the model world at least.
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Oh yeah if we’re talking long term you’re right
iGRXY
Member
Looking back, February 2021 was destined to fail due to the jet retraction that strung out the trough over the center of the US. It made sense that the NATL heights gave out and were replaced with a ridge. Compare that to the current look where the trough is centered off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic.
wow
Member
woof.. 18z digging the jan 6-8 wave further west ala the 6z. Just need to not wrap up too quickly. But as long as that 50/50 low holds we'll be good.
TT is crashing. This must be a good run
This Jan 6 wave is diving in further west 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep.
2021 is still good yes, but as you allude to there are more failure points.
For starters, the deep layer longwave trough isn’t anywhere near as deep over the Eastern US, the 50-50 low is a lot less defined, there’s really no +PNA in 2021, and there’s a pesky little trough sitting over Alaska trying to keep the EPO positive.
Not to mention, in 2020-21 we were in a La Nina and historically speaking, February isn’t as favorable for snow/cold. Oth, we are in early to mid January here, arguably one of the best periods for snow/cold relative to the other phase of ENSO
None of these things are a deal breaker necessarily for not getting snow, but it’s clearly not anywhere near as good as what is being forecast atm, especially in/around the 2nd week of January, a period I’ve really liked for a while now
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wow
Member
mobile friendly but a terrible site overall. Pivotal is not nearly user friendly but much faster and better products.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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SE ridge might flex a little too much with this look. Still a signal…
all timer weenie run incoming if this shortwave does what i think it's about to do
iGRXY
Member
Mannnnnnnn
NEGaweather
Member
Get ready
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wow
Member
That wave is really deepening out west. Needs to kick east quick before the trough axis tilts neutral...
oh boy
iGRXY
Member
Big -NAO, deepening 50/50, TPV is further south, more stream separation … please say we don’t screw this up
Slide baby slide
wow
Member
Hold convergence hold... HP trying to build over the NE
Interrupting the GFS talk for a quick second. Here are the weeniest EPS members. Absolute bangers 
wow
Member
JACKPOT
Yes. No ridge to make this one cut. Safe on that front. High pressure trying to build in. These are the long range maps I like to see though. High pressure dominant with no ridge in sight along the east coast. Potential is there 
iGRXY
Member
We will see what happens but even with the S/W deepening, that NAO, and big 50/50/lower heights along the border still should keep heights low east
wow
Member
wellll. it does go to sleet after that next 6 hr slide... figured with the position of the trough axis. still, i'll take it! just minor things at this point.
We have a storm to track!
We have a storm to track!
NEGaweather
Member
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All the players were there for a long duration overrunning winter storm. Details I wouldn't worry about - heck, the H5 evolution has undergone massive changes over the past 4 runs.
Brent
Member
Big winter storm here at day 10 on the GFS
wow
Member
You can see the axis going negative before crossing the Mississippi.. that'll pull the primary up over the TN while the secondary low bombs out off the Atlantic coast. Just a learning exercise right now. 99% this won't verify (for better or worse)
