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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

crecre9 said:
The GFS is funny, look at these dewpoints. I can't say I've ever seen a -15 F dewpoint temp in Alabama before.
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How about a -20F dew point in South Florida
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When should we start taking the op runs more seriously? Inside 7 days? They are bound to pick up on this stuff soon. My initial sense is they are lagging here.
 
griteater said:
I’m away from the griteater basement where I can quickly do the trend loop, but yeah, EPS keeps bumping a little west with the western ridge / eastern trough. Improvement

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I would like to think that any further west would risk some more cutter like solutions, so let’s try our best to keep it here.
 
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I’ve been about 25% interested in that 1/4-1/5 time frame. We likely cold rain on the front end them here before the real opportunities come right after this but man that’s a textbook look to get a CAD event here in the western Carolinas. Just need that trough to dig further west and mannnnn
 
I definitely can't recall so much potential showing from an ensemble run as the EPS just showed. Looks like what you see for Boston during the heart of winter. It also appeared that the good pattern was holding strong, so I can't wait to see what these runs might look like in another couple of days. Obviously, they could trend worse, but I did a little analysis for Greensboro:

-47/52 members showing at least a trace of snow
-31 members had multiple snow events
-11 members had 3+ snow events
-2 members showed 4 distinct snows
-31 members with at least 2"
-23 members with at least 4"
-13 members with at least 6"
-8 members with over a foot


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Tarheel1 said:
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I’ve got one just like that!! It was my daddy’s. He grew up in Gaston Co NC! I used it in the 1980 or 1981 ice storm!!! Worked great!! Are y’all saying I might need to go get it from Daddy’s shop?? Btw.. I’ve lost 83 pounds this year.. I’m freezing in the 50’s!!! All my thickest clothes are 4 sizes too big!! OMG. I’m gonna be an ice block!! If we don’t get some snow or ice and all I get is cramps from freezing to death, yall gonna see one nut job!! Namely that groundhogzilla come to like!!! Only us old folks who been around here a long time will remember that!!! You met students were probably in elementary school!!
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I’ve got one just like that!! It was my daddy’s. He grew up in Gaston Co NC! I used it in the 1980 or 1981 ice storm!!! Worked great!! Are y’all saying I might need to go get it from Daddy’s shop?? Btw.. I’ve lost 83 pounds this year.. I’m freezing in the 50’s!!! All my thickest clothes are 4 sizes too big!! OMG. I’m gonna be an ice block!! If we don’t get some snow or ice and all I get is cramps from freezing to death, yall gonna see one nut job!! Namely that groundhogzilla come to like!!! Only us old folks who been around here a long time will remember that!!! You met students were probably in elementary school!!
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I've got one of these too. I don't get to use it much in Chattanooga Tn. though.
 
UKMET shifting west and stronger with energy also.
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P.S. For those not in the know, the UKMET is one of the better scoring models at H5 and I have personally used it in my own job (both for a tropical and winter forecast) when it latched onto trends ahead of other NWP/ensembles in the past 2-3 years. To be fair, it has also struggled mightily other times, but I can say that about all NWP.
 
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packfan98 said:
I definitely can't recall so much potential showing from an ensemble run as the EPS just showed. Looks like what you see for Boston during the heart of winter. It also appeared that the good pattern was holding strong, so I can't wait to see what these runs might look like in another couple of days. Obviously, they could trend worse, but I did a little analysis for Greensboro:

-47/52 members showing at least a trace of snow
-31 members had multiple snow events
-11 members had 3+ snow events
-2 members showed 4 distinct snows
-31 members with at least 2"
-23 members with at least 4"
-13 members with at least 6"
-8 members with over a foot


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I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw meteograms look that good around here, even if it’s out in fantasy land (for now).

Maybe late Jan - early Feb 2014?
 
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