• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Jessy89 said:
The problem with the GFS. Not likely to verify but hypothetically speaking. Temps that cold after an ice storm would be catastrophic. At least after Helene temps was comfortable. No power with extreme cold yikes!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
So glad my generator came in last week. It can power my whole place! Duke still hasn't fixed my snapped power line after Helene :(
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
And what gives you that scenario?
Click to expand...
Just the fact that the numbers these models are spitting out for cold are ridiculous. It’s gonna be cold don’t get me wrong, but if some of those crazy numbers verify it will be historic I would think. But I guess it’s a historic year already so why not.
 
e35af17e78ab6e07232595f1960dbd63.gif

Nice increase on GEFS


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowfan said:
View attachment 157204
Talk about record lows.
Click to expand...
I can honestly say that in my two decades of following weather models that -15 that is right over me is the lowest modeled temperature I have ever seen forecasted for location. I think maybe I couple runs in early January 2018 had down to -2 a few days out and I ended up with a low 4.
 
packfan98 said:
Here’s the latest Euro MJO. No blue dots on the right half is a first.
Click to expand...
Image on left is Euro Monthly MJO forecast from 12/23. I added the big black dot where I felt the avg of all of the green dots would be - this would place the MJO in Phase 3 (but within the circle) in 20 days after 12/23 or on 1/12

Image on right is Euro Monthly MJO forecast from 12/28. The big black dot is in the middle of the blue dots - this would place the MJO in Phase 1 in 15 days after 12/28 or on 1/12

Bottom line, the Euro forecast has slowed down the MJO a bit. The current forecast has it in Phase 1 just outside the circle on 1/12 whereas the forecast from 5 days ago showed the MJO moving at a faster pace and in Phase 3 at a lower amplitude inside the circle

hAB1WQl.png
 
Chazwin said:
I can honestly say that in my two decades of following weather models that -15 that is right over me is the lowest modeled temperature I have ever seen forecasted for location. I think maybe I couple runs in early January 2018 had down to -2 a few days out and I ended up with a low 4.
Click to expand...
I have not been below 0 since 1985. I thought we might do it in 1989, but clouds came in. Wilmington hit 0 that night, no doubt aided by snowcover.
 
Stevo24 said:
Just the fact that the numbers these models are spitting out for cold are ridiculous. It’s gonna be cold don’t get me wrong, but if some of those crazy numbers verify it will be historic I would think. But I guess it’s a historic year already so why not.
Click to expand...
Why not,,,very well...
 
JHS said:
I have not been below 0 since 1985. I thought we might do it in 1989, but clouds came in. Wilmington hit 0 that night, no doubt aided by snowcover.
Click to expand...
The last sub zero I experienced sub-zero was January 2011 in Maggie Valley while on a weekend snow tubing trip with the family. The last time IMBY was in 1985 growing up in Concord.
 
Chazwin said:
The last sub zero I experienced sub-zero was January 2011 in Maggie Valley while on a weekend snow tubing trip with the family. The last time IMBY was in 1985 growing up in Concord.
Click to expand...
On the morning of Jan. 21, 1985, temperatures ranged from -8 at KATL to -12 at Marietta, with some reports as low as -15. To note, there was minimal snowpack to the north!
 
Larry Cosgrove's profile photo

Larry Cosgrove​

unread,
5:37 PM (3 hours ago)

[email protected]
So....Is The January Cold Wave And Winter Storm Threat For Real?

The short answer is YES. But a key issue when looking at weather patterns (at least, like I do....) is to remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter. One thing you can glean from model guidance, analogs and storm track analysis is that the Great Lakes, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard stand to get a great deal of frozen precipitation types (snow and ice). The expanse of cold will likely be between the Continental Divide and the USA shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. At best, this JFM sequence will be variable, and create no memories of times like the late 1970s or 2008 through 2011. That was yesterday...and yesterday's gone!

Let me focus instead on some of the factors that might come together and create a "shock value forecast" for those of you weary of reminders of climate change and snowless, balmy winters. First, virtually all of the numerical model guidance has a triple blocking scenario developing after New Year's Day. That is, an alignment of high-latitude ridging strung along in a -EPO/-AO/-NAO (Alaska/Canadian Arctic Islands/Greenland) fashion. Another contributor is the impressive Madden-Julian Oscillation, which will be at once enhancing the subtropical jet stream (moisture ane energy component) into Mexico while also boosting the sub-Aleutian vortex. This mechanism helps to pump up ridging near the Arctic Circle, long enough to maintain a cold downstream 500MB trough complex over central and eastern North America.

The process starts during the medium range, when the first of maybe four cAk intrusions arrives in the lower 48 states. A storm moving from the lower Great Plains to middle/upper Appalachia will be preceded by a brief warm-up, especially evident across Dixie into the Corn Belt and Eastern Seaboard. Remembering that snow cover is plentiful across most of Canada, the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Arctic air mass advection should be steady and reach Texas and the Deep South early in the first week of the New Year.

A window from January 5 - 9 exists for a major winter storm to traverse Texas and the Gulf States up along the Appalachian Mountains and Atlantic Coastal Plain. Locating the presence of a parent cAk motherlode is important; Most likely James Bay or central/eastern Ontario will be the farthest south that the Arctic 500MB corecan descend. But if the gyre reaches Michigan or Lake Erie, the incentive for heavy snow, ice and record-setting cold temperatures will reach into most of the Gulf Coast states, including Texas and Florida. This system represents the best chance in a long time for excessive snow to affect the Interstates 81 and 95 corridors. No guarantees, mind you, but if only for a week or so, it will likely feel like an old-fashioned winter has visited the eastern 2/3 of the USA.

Until the "January Thaw" appears, that is, in the third week of next month.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Larry Cosgrove's profile photo's profile photo

Larry Cosgrove​

unread,
5:37 PM (3 hours ago)

[email protected]
So....Is The January Cold Wave And Winter Storm Threat For Real?

The short answer is YES. But a key issue when looking at weather patterns (at least, like I do....) is to remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter. One thing you can glean from model guidance, analogs and storm track analysis is that the Great Lakes, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard stand to get a great deal of frozen precipitation types (snow and ice). The expanse of cold will likely be between the Continental Divide and the USA shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. At best, this JFM sequence will be variable, and create no memories of times like the late 1970s or 2008 through 2011. That was yesterday...and yesterday's gone!


Until the "January Thaw" appears, that is, in the third week of next month.
Click to expand...
I have never heard of this guy? I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but I don't think he is as smart as he thinks he is. what does he mean"remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter." And"Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. " Sounds like a global warming nut that has made a forecast for a warm winter based on "climate change"and he's praying he won't look like a fool . At the very least he's a winter Grinch!
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
I have never heard of this guy? I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but I don't think he is as smart as he thinks he is. what does he mean"remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter." And"Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", And "disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. " Sounds like a global warming nut that has made a forecast for a warm winter based on "climate change"and he's praying he won't look like a fool . At the very least he's a winter Grinch!
Click to expand...
As stated before, a lot of Mets in the area have been/felt roasted for buying in to 200+ hour models and are very conservative on agreeing with anything this far out! Some say they will only call for snow once it’s falling!
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
I have never heard of this guy? I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but I don't think he is as smart as he thinks he is. what does he mean"remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter." And"Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. " Sounds like a global warming nut that has made a forecast for a warm winter based on "climate change"and he's praying he won't look like a fool . At the very least he's a winter Grinch!
Click to expand...
He famously busted in the Carolinas back in 2005 and promptly left the board I was on back then. He called for rain in the CAD areas when everyone else called for an ice storm. What we got was a major icestorm with up to 1 inch of ice in some places.
 
jeremyt said:
As stated before, a lot of Mets in the area have been/felt roasted for buying in to 200+ hour models and are very conservative on agreeing with anything this far out! Some say they will only call for snow once it’s falling!
Click to expand...
I would have been fine with that!
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
I have never heard of this guy? I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but I don't think he is as smart as he thinks he is. what does he mean"remember climatology and ignore index-based predictions, especially those based on just one parameter." And"Duration of the winter weather may disappoint those looking for a "winter comeback", where the run of recent years with virtually no below normal temperatures and above average snowfall will come to a stop. " Sounds like a global warming nut that has made a forecast for a warm winter based on "climate change"and he's praying he won't look like a fool . At the very least he's a winter Grinch!
Click to expand...
A while back, he engaged with some southern weather hobbyist around a CAD event and was schooled by the hobbyist. He quit that practice immediately as he was dead wrong. Some guys here have forgotten more about CAD than he will ever know.

He's a pattern guesser.
 
JHS said:
He famously busted in the Carolinas back in 2005 and promptly left the board I was on back then. He called for rain in the CAD areas when everyone else called for an ice storm. What we got was a major icestorm with up to 1 inch of ice in some places.
Click to expand...
Was that the ice storm where Raleigh made the national news for basically shutting down due to the ice?
 
DixieBlizzard said:
A while back, he engaged with some southern weather hobbyist around a CAD event and was schooled by the hobbyist. He quit that practice immediately as hew was dead wrong. Some guys here have forgotten more about CAD than he will ever know.

He's a pattern guesser.
Click to expand...
Also an agenda advancer
 
DixieBlizzard said:
A while back, he engaged with some southern weather hobbyist around a CAD event and was schooled by the hobbyist. He quit that practice immediately as he was dead wrong. Some guys here have forgotten more about CAD than he will ever know.

He's a pattern guesser.
Click to expand...
That would be HKY WX... It was wonderful
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top