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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

I’ve been watching this one from the shadows, these last few runs are going to make me have a heart attack.. I’m camping out tomorrow night at 2800 ft hopefully we will get a quicker changeover!
Congrats [checks notes] Shreveport? Returns are looking pretty healthy in LA and AR.

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Let’s look at the trend in the last four GFS runs.
We keep seeing trends like this in model guidance today, that WWA may need to be extended to a Carrollton to Atlanta to Gainesville line. EDIT: Kinda surprised there’s not at least a SWS out for those aforementioned areas.
 
09z RAP and 06z GFS are bonkers.

09z RAP
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I can see this happening. Look at the very small hole just north of the Ga line around Chattanooga. It's a nothing hole with .06" around it. I can see that happening. I hope if the snow comes to fruition Chattanooga people can watch the snow from their window instead of their television.

N. Ga. seems to do MUCH better than Chattanooga on snow totals. It seems the temps are usually a few degrees cooler than Chatty or if Chatty does have the cold in place the moisture stays just to our south.

Note: this isn't a "Banter" post, just stating the facts. Everything has to line up perfect for our area to see significant snowfall.

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I can see this happening. Look at the very small hole just north of the Ga line around Chattanooga. It's a nothing hole with .06" around it. I can see that happening. I hope if the snow comes to fruition Chattanooga people can watch the snow from their window instead of their television.

N. Ga. seems to do MUCH better than Chattanooga on snow totals. It seems the temps are usually a few degrees cooler than Chatty or if Chatty does have the cold in place the moisture stays just to our south.

That snow hole in Hamilton County has been showing up on several runs of several models for some reason. It’s weird. (I was born and raised in Chattanooga and live in NC now.)
 
Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia looks pretty good. But it looks as if the axis of snow shifted south a bit on the 12z HRRR compared to 06z. Hopefully we can trend it more and more like this throughout the day.


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