Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Nerman]

That 3k nam was glorious, I mean that’s winter storm warning criteria for a lot of Alabama. Surely it’s off it’s rocker, but that is what winter weenie dreams are made of.

I'll be rooting for you guys from Georgia. This does not look like our storm.

 

[Oconeexman]

I'll be rooting for you guys from Georgia. This does not look like our storm.

Same from SC...although I'm driving up early Monday morning to NC line to find flakes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

RGEM cutting off and going negative at the MS/AL line.

 

[LukeBarrette]

RGEM cutting off and going negative at the MS/AL line.

View attachment 100564

Pivotal weather just ran most of it, more amped and precip shield farther north

 

[packfan98]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

RGEM staying amped and consistent, honestly similar to the 12z hrrr/ 09zrap

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Textbook

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gotta go with the more amped solution, 12z nam 12km and even the 3km is likely not amped enough

 

[Metwannabe]

Hard not to get excited with the trends this late in the game

 

[LovingGulfLows]

It would be nice if that RGEM upper level track was just 50-100 miles south.

 

[Rain Cold]

RGEM staying amped and consistent, honestly similar to the 12z hrrr/ 09zrap View attachment 100565View attachment 100566

I like having the Rgem showing this solution but the Nam being a little warm is a red flag. Fortunately, the Nam is a very wishy washy model. It usually does a decent job with thermals though.

 

[Parker]

Storm5 was texting me earlier talking about how game on it could be if this thing closed off. I’d like to see this baby trend like 3/1/09, but this one isn’t far off from being good.

 

[Stormdoc]

I usually take the NAM more seriously starting under 48 hrs out, that should start at 18Z for central NC

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I usually take the NAM more seriously starting under 48 hrs out, that should start at 18Z for central NC

We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.

 

[Stormdoc]

We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.

I agree, I would suspect the 3K should be a little more accurate as far as it’s resolution. The higher the rates of precip coming down, the cooler the thermals.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just through 9 hours, GFS already stronger.

 

[packfan98]

Closed off at 42. Was open on 6z.

 

[Stormlover]

high res nam

 

[DopplerWx]

Well then