Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Ward Cleaver]

I can’t imaging this verifying for the mountains. Rates will overcome ground temps.

 

[ajr]

View attachment 101007

I can’t imaging this verifying for the mountains. Rates will overcome ground temps.

They posted a WSW for the mountains — not sure why this graphic depicts differently

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

They posted a WSW for the mountains — not sure why this graphic depicts differently

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I’ve been watching this one from the shadows, these last few runs are going to make me have a heart attack.. I’m camping out tomorrow night at 2800 ft hopefully we will get a quicker changeover!

Congrats [checks notes] Shreveport? Returns are looking pretty healthy in LA and AR.

 

[Ward Cleaver]

I was hoping to sleep in another hour before church, but I’m anticipating the 12z HRRR.

 

[Weatherlover92]

View attachment 101005

Let’s look at the trend in the last four GFS runs.

We keep seeing trends like this in model guidance today, that WWA may need to be extended to a Carrollton to Atlanta to Gainesville line. EDIT: Kinda surprised there’s not at least a SWS out for those aforementioned areas.

 

[TheBatman]

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 101005

Let’s look at the trend in the last four GFS runs.

You know it’s legit when eastern NC and Atlanta gets the shaft. All is right with the world.

 

[TheBatman]

 

[Snownut]

If that low would just Track 200 miles south, a lot more people would be Happy

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

 

[Ward Cleaver]

12z HRRR is rolling. Then I can go make some coffee.

BTW, I’m at nearly 1” of rain since 5:00 AM. Very much needed.

 

[Uncle Nasty]

09z RAP and 06z GFS are bonkers.

09z RAP
View attachment 101000

I can see this happening. Look at the very small hole just north of the Ga line around Chattanooga. It's a nothing hole with .06" around it. I can see that happening. I hope if the snow comes to fruition Chattanooga people can watch the snow from their window instead of their television.

N. Ga. seems to do MUCH better than Chattanooga on snow totals. It seems the temps are usually a few degrees cooler than Chatty or if Chatty does have the cold in place the moisture stays just to our south.

Note: this isn't a "Banter" post, just stating the facts. Everything has to line up perfect for our area to see significant snowfall.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

 

[Ward Cleaver]

I can see this happening. Look at the very small hole just north of the Ga line around Chattanooga. It's a nothing hole with .06" around it. I can see that happening. I hope if the snow comes to fruition Chattanooga people can watch the snow from their window instead of their television.

N. Ga. seems to do MUCH better than Chattanooga on snow totals. It seems the temps are usually a few degrees cooler than Chatty or if Chatty does have the cold in place the moisture stays just to our south.

That snow hole in Hamilton County has been showing up on several runs of several models for some reason. It’s weird. (I was born and raised in Chattanooga and live in NC now.)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ULL on the hrrr looks a tick SW

 

[KyloG]

Radar already looks impressive…good luck to the ones in on this. ?

 

[DopplerWx]

Nice for AL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Slightly further S/slightly less amped

 

[Snownut]

Slightly further S/slightly less amped View attachment 101018

Hopefully that's the Trend today and will bring lots more folks into play. It wouldn't take much with this thing

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

 

[DopplerWx]

Wild!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR shows supercells over the CLT metro in the morning

 

[TheBatman]

Nice for AL
View attachment 101017

What a deformation band. Unreal!! Go from storm at 75 degrees last night to this. But heck Denver in September 2020 was at 93 degrees day before and actually accumulate a inch of snow the next day.

 

[RBR71]

I think our best bet in NC east of the mountains is for the deform band to really get cranking and roll east before it dries up. Convinced we see a few flakes fly but losing confidence in any type of minor slushy accumulation

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice deform band this hrrr run

 

[Goose88]

With the Gulf being as warm as it is could this pump out more moisture as it progresses or does it need to be closer to the Gulf?

 

[Rain Cold]

With the Gulf being as warm as it is could this pump out more moisture as it progresses or does it need to be closer to the Gulf?

There's not really much of a Gulf tap on this one.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like there might legitimately be some thunderstorms in the morning with a small severe hazard then snow hours later, pretty crazy

 

[RBR71]

Nice deform band this hrrr run View attachment 101022

That dry slot though

 

[Ward Cleaver]

The cutoffs in Guilford County (NC) could be brutal. Rain in the SE and 3” in the NW.

Again, these setups rarely work out for me. I wake up to a cold rain, wait for a changeover, and end up with a quarter inch of slush on the mulch.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia looks pretty good. But it looks as if the axis of snow shifted south a bit on the 12z HRRR compared to 06z. Hopefully we can trend it more and more like this throughout the day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That dry slot though

Looks more realistic given the dry slot aloft then deformation axis that pivots thru during the day with the moist comma head

 

[RBR71]

A couple of hours of light snow after this debacle of a December, I'll take it

 

[RBR71]

HRRR slightly improved actually

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t know where to put this but the HRRR is legitimately close to some soundings favorable for tornadoes, rotating elevated supercells at the very least, it’s a good thing this setup isn’t happening later or we would run into big problems

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow

 

[Storm5]

From a friend of my wife's in Texas

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBR71]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow View attachment 101028View attachment 101027

Good luck man it would be a nice bonus for you since your transition back from the heat miser

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[gawxnative]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow View attachment 101028View attachment 101027

I posted the Current SPC Day 1 on the "New Years Severte" thread, as it is a continuation of the system yesterday

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

A couple of hours of light snow after this debacle of a December, I'll take it

Somebody is gonna get a surprising burst of heavy snow/sleet/graupel as the deform band pivots with a round of 850mb/900mb FGEN with the CAA, I’m just wondering where that area will be