Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Myfrotho704_]

Uh the RAP is digging this thing a little more

 

[KyloG]

Do we like the RAP now?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

RAP crushes most everyone 85 and NW

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Straight up weenie run lol

 

[Rain Cold]

Do we like the RAP now?

View attachment 100594

Starting to turn into the typical distribution with max amounts back toward the Triad and points northeast.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Starting to feel optimistic that the northern NC piedmont will at least see flakes fly. We're going to need some heavy rates for any accumulation. But I wouldn't be too surprised if some areas got an inch or two out of this

 

[Broken024]

Straight up weenie run lol View attachment 100595View attachment 100596

I feel like RAP always gives me false hope of how far south the snow line will go

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know this isn’t related but it’s currently 76 degrees here, that’s just stupid at 11am on NY day

 

[Parker]

I know this isn’t related but it’s currently 76 degrees here, that’s just stupid at 11am on NY day

73 here. Can't wait for the 30s tomorrow afternoon. I need to start throwing some ice on my grass for optimal snow accumulation lol

 

[DopplerWx]

L

Straight up weenie run lol View attachment 100595View attachment 100596

RAP has long been the most reliable models sniffing out paste bombs inside 48hrs

source: me

 

[WeatherNC]

This is going to catch a lot of people by surprise, I expect watches to go up for the mountains this afternoon. RAH did state the NAM is an outlier in their overnight AFD, this should be a pretty consolidated low deepening rapidly on its way ENE off the Carolina coast. Looks like a 6hr period for areas east of the mountains as the column crashes.

 

[Parker]

Canadian looks juicy at 42 for those of us to the west but my 48 frame has not loaded.

 

[Metwannabe]

Hey guys I moved the temperature debate to whamby just trying to keep this thread event specific.

Thanks

Meanagement

 

[LukeBarrette]

amped solutions are winning right now…..

 

[malak05]

amped solutions are winning right now…..

We just need systems with further digging and negative tilt and amped up to win the day for most everyone

 

[Avalanche]

View attachment 100586RGEM was a weenie run for the triangle with the highest totals N&W.

Im buying it over in Nash, Edgecomb, Halifax.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Paste bomb.

Definitely to high on accumulation but it’s overall following the amped trends with some of the other models View attachment 100576View attachment 100577View attachment 100578

View attachment 100586RGEM was a weenie run for the triangle with the highest totals N&W.

Do we like the RAP now?

View attachment 100594

I have said it before, but this keeps looking better and better as we get closer, and seeing it evolve this way is much more believable and realistic than when we see a huge storm show up 10 days out. When the storm evolves gradually like this on the models that's when it actually turns out to snow here most of the time.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Brad P. Says a chance of wet snow along I-40. I guess that’s better than what he’s been saying


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[Parker]

View attachment 100607
Hopefully the NAM verifies for North Central AL

Id sleep with that 3K NAM. The RGEM and CMC were strikingly similar as well.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Brad P. Says a chance of wet snow along I-40. I guess that’s better than what he’s been saying


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I think most Mets have learned from past systems like this and this is a common type system we get almost every year. Always go low and hope to get surprised.