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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

WXinCanton said:
12z NAM.

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We really need that SW trend to continue. I think you’re in good shape up your way tho. ITP probably a few flakes as usual but still clinging to hope. The cutoff gradient is brutal.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to notice the HRRR slighty slow/strengthen the northern stream energy/confluence around the Great Lakes
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This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through
 
Chazwin said:
This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through
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And/or some impressive hail/graupel p-types.
 
Chazwin said:
This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through
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Possibly and if not there could legitimately be some hail with these thunderstorms, steep mid level lapse rates (7C) and cool mid level temps could do the trick
 
I was thinking all the consistent trends for amped and further NW had to stop eventually and at least maybe a slight correction towards go time .. think it has saved some of us in NC from a very unhappy Monday
 
KyloG said:
Isn't Cobb County - ATL metro? Looks good on the EPS

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Then you read this from FFC and wonder what planet they are on

expect a transition to
light rain/snow showers and to a period of all snow across portions
of north Georgia between 2-8am tomorrow morning. Portions of the
north Atlanta metropolitan area could see a dusting of snow -
generally less than 0.25 inch with the higher elevations could see
up to 2 inches. As the upper low pulls away from the area Monday,
skies will clear with good sunshine expected across much of the area
by mid to late morning, so any snow should melt quickly.
 
SD said:
Fyi unless someone can convince me otherwise probably going to not have an obs thread and just keep everything rolling in here
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Great!! Keeping it simplified, I love it. And if I may, since we are going to keep all things related to this event, including all obs, in one thread it is very important to keep banter out, please. It's happening! Good luck everyone and Godspeed!
 
malak05 said:
Then you read this from FFC and wonder what planet they are on

expect a transition to
light rain/snow showers and to a period of all snow across portions
of north Georgia between 2-8am tomorrow morning. Portions of the
north Atlanta metropolitan area could see a dusting of snow -
generally less than 0.25 inch with the higher elevations could see
up to 2 inches. As the upper low pulls away from the area Monday,
skies will clear with good sunshine expected across much of the area
by mid to late morning, so any snow should melt quickly.
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IDK seems reasonable to me?
 
You get the upper low moving across I20 through Alabama and Georgia and that definitely will help those east of the mountains. I think those of us from Highway 14 in the SC going east gets the best chance of seeing some backside snow for an hour or 2. Seeing that on the models as the low is moving away. Spartanburg and Cherokee counties really benefits from still having very elevated terrain but also not having 3000 ft mountains on the NC/SC border that really helps block the cold air like it does in Greenville, Oconee, Pickens, and Anderson counties. Colder air filters down through the mountains faster and easier. Always see transitions from rain to snow start along 26 and quickly works it’s easy south and rolls east. Still think that’s the best case for us. Now I am definitely a lot more confident in seeing snow along and nw of 85 in the Piedmont with a decent accumulation possible.
 
malak05 said:
Ahhh... I'll say this personal think this is slight undersale because they know they can ramp up verbiage by noon if necessary. Looking at radar and models seems to point that areas from Carrollton up thru Cobb and then then Ball ground definitely in a good spot for accumulating snow
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Yea but they also look at past storms with the same or similar set up. I know Kirk Mellish does this as well. I really hope they are off because I’m a huge snow weenie but I just don’t see it.
 
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