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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

This system will be a dynamic system that will be deepening and much, much cold air will be flooding in on the backside of the low moving through. I still expect some wobbles and blips right up into tomorrow evening with this system but with what we have been experiencing this is the best scenario currently for many people to see flakes flying this season.
 
If this closes off and continues its track over the upstate as depicted, I really think those that live along and east of 26 in the upstate could see an hour or 2 of flakes flying on the backend. This thing appears to be digging more and a closed off upper level low with a secondary low is the best chance for us east of the mountains to have a shot in these setups.
 
I’m clearly off my game but at what time do the next SREF plumes come out? I noticed the 03z plumes had over a one inch mean for BHM, the 09z dropped back to about a .25 mean. I’m hopeful they shoot back up.

Need this baby to close off further west and deepen rapidly.
 
Sometimes I think that the Rap and HRRR are too amped and quick with their changeover. I was burned last year with the January snow event waiting for it to end up being delayed an hour from the HRRR. The NAM 3k did the best, so I’ll stick with that — nice to see it improved from 06z.
 
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I also know a lot of you have been saying soil temperatures don’t matter. While that’s true in upper 40’s, it’s very difficult to manage with upper 50’s IMO. I’ve personally never seen snow stick with snow with snow that is on the lower duration side either since Jan 2018, but that was a different case from the several days below freezing.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I also know a lot of you have been saying soil temperatures don’t matter. While that’s true in upper 40’s, it’s very difficult to manage with upper 50’s IMO. I’ve personally never seen snow stick with snow with snow that is on the lower duration side either since Jan 2018, but that was a different case from the several days below freezing.
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Agreed I’m thinking first 1-2 inches of snow melt and then whatever anyone can manage after that will be your total
 
I wonder when Wakefield may put out watches (if ever)... they're typically more on the conservative side so they may never be put out, but we are within 48 hours. They'll probably just wait to put out advisories, if I had to guess. This probably has too must bust potential at least in their eyes (from what I've seen in their discussions)
 
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