Parker
Member
That’s a drastic change from 00z to 12z. Maybe it’ll continue over the next 36-48 hours. I’m still hoping the 18z 3k nam doubles down.
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That’s a drastic change from 00z to 12z. Maybe it’ll continue over the next 36-48 hours. I’m still hoping the 18z 3k nam doubles down.
Yeah that's an impressive uptick and every single model showing some snow falling. Hope many can get in on this and kiss December to remember a fond good riddance
Ray’s Weather Center is taking notice. Guy is usually spot on. Maybe a bit conservative at the moment though.
“A fast-moving, secondary disturbance forms behind the front and moves across the Southern Appalachians and moves toward the Mid-Atlantic. Rain returns late Sunday; then precipitation changes to snow showers around or after midnight. Snow showers and flurries end Monday morning. I'm thinking about an inch of snow along a line from Independence VA, to Jefferson NC, to just east of Boone, to Spruce Pine, and western Madison/Haywood Counties. A bit more is possible west of that line, less east of the line to the Blue Ridge. Stay tuned since computer guidance still varies greatly. Winds become gusty late Sunday night.”
“A fast-moving, secondary disturbance forms behind the front and moves across the Southern Appalachians and moves toward the Mid-Atlantic. Rain returns late Sunday; then precipitation changes to snow showers around or after midnight. Snow showers and flurries end Monday morning. I'm thinking about an inch of snow along a line from Independence VA, to Jefferson NC, to just east of Boone, to Spruce Pine, and western Madison/Haywood Counties. A bit more is possible west of that line, less east of the line to the Blue Ridge. Stay tuned since computer guidance still varies greatly. Winds become gusty late Sunday night.”
I think there’s a chance some bust high .. deformation bands are known for mischief and usually are more impressive than people think only thing is I just really wonder how the rates vs ground temps battle finished on this one .. it would be a good blueprint for the future
No wonder the euro looks good, it’s cutoff now 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
And significantly more amped like the GFS has been the last several runs
In my lifetime I’ve seen a number of decent snowfalls with a closed upper low in that area, and for the most part, the weren’t forecasted until about 48 hours of less before the event. The February 1999 storm I mentioned earlier was very similar
Cautiously optimistic and we still have another 3-4 cycles of runs for this to continue to improve, trend is pretty obvious.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The 15Z NMB of the SREF looks really amped up. Previously was not at all.
Pretty good agreement starting to come in 
Parker
Member
For the Alabama and Mississippi posters. Check out the increase of coverage of snowfall members from the eps. If this continues to trend in the right direction, we may also be in business. Maybe fro, Ollie, or someone else can post a wider view of the SE.
00z on top, 12z bottom
00z on top, 12z bottom
I called this out in the Jamusary thread on Thursday and it still applies here and illustrated by the EC historical loop above by KyloG, east based PNA is beginning a rapid rise and this should retrograde further west for atleast the first half of January, fun times ahead. The models are still playing ketchup with this system.
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Not much wiggle room though, too amped and we start a NW trend
Best EPS run in sometime 
The 18z HRRR is already looking better than 12z
Is this hrrr run about to seriously be more amped ? Wtf lol
Give me a sloppy inch and im a happy camper
True story
Not to mention the winds will be blowing in that dryer air .. blizzard conditions anyone ? ??